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Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

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Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#341

Post by fishnchips »

jdougan wrote: post #254
fishnchips wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny, as a Pole my 1st reaction was "damn our spooks finally did a good job". I was (and still am) very surprised nobody was even considering Poland as a perpetrator.

I know, right. Historical beefs with both Germany and Russia, a history of competent intelligence organizations, a quality military, and obvious current motivations. Yet, every time I bring up Poland as an option, usually I just get ignored. The time I do get a response, it is usually some story about how only the US has the capability, which is total BS.

Historical grievances aside, no middleman likes being cut out.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#342

Post by pvg »

alienicecream wrote: post #130
pvg wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2014 there was a sabotage operation against a munitions depot in Vrbětice in the Czech republic, a NATO member. There was no official attribution for half a decade. Lack of immediate attribution as a basis for assigning responsibility seems mostly cherrypicking and vibes.

Valid point, but I don't think the importance and notoriety of these events are comparable.

Maybe but that's the essence of cherry-picking. It suggests that you aren't actually 'working from nothing towards plausible theories' as you think (and I'm not saying this is intentional or some sort of intellectual or moral failing, we all do this) but working backwards from a conclusion to select supporting points and counterpoints can be dismissed for not being sufficiently countery.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#343

Post by tptacek »

Jerry2 wrote: post #339
IIAOPSW wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're entire system of reasoning comes down to choosing what to believe based on how much you like the person saying it. And when you don't like the person saying it you can't even say their name without inserting a stupid insult like "criminal cabal" and "OSINTbro shill". You systematically sidestep all questions on matters of fact in favor of naked tribal social reasoning. Even in this discourse you opted to reaso…

Hersh's report adds up more than "Russia did it" nonsense that's coming out of CIA-approved sources.

It doesn't do that at all if it's false in all its particulars. You need to separate the idea that the US is behind this sabotage from the idea that Hersh is a kook. Both things can be true at the same time!

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#344

Post by jdougan »

fishnchips wrote: post #341
jdougan wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know, right. Historical beefs with both Germany and Russia, a history of competent intelligence organizations, a quality military, and obvious current motivations. Yet, every time I bring up Poland as an option, usually I just get ignored. The time I do get a response, it is usually some story about how only the US has the capability, which is total BS.

Historical grievances aside, no middleman likes being cut out.

That was intended to come under current motivations, but I should have been more explicit. What else are the other Poles around you annoyed about in this situation? Do most think Polish agencies were responsible?

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#345

Post by halothane »

mannerheim wrote: post #282
halothane wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nice! Love how you threw in the age factor there Buster. Yep, Seymour sure got his basic facts wrong during the Vietnam War, Watergate scandal, Abu Ghraib and more. I'd rather have him report on our state of the world than Brown Moses's team of Tik Tok experts or for that matter Team Jorge, unless you are one of them?

I threw in the age factor because it's a fact that people's mental faculties diminish as they age. And the Pakistani staged Bin Laden raid, Opus Dei in the USMC, and the Turks using chemical weapons in Syria? How convenient that everything that doesn't corroborate his fairy tales is just more proof of the cover up.

[flagged]

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#346

Post by einpoklum »

astrange wrote: post #305
StanislavPetrov wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CIA narrative on the "Syria gas attacks" have been roundly debunked by the meticulous reporting of Aaron Mate (and others). The even more absurd "Skripal poisoning" incident has completely fallen apart upon only the barest scrutiny. It is sad and disturbing these these completely debunked narratives are still being touted by people as credible. Anyone (rightfully) calling for skepticism and scrutiny into Hersch's…

Aaron Maté is a ridiculous tankie who's currently claiming the US is trying to coup Hungary. (Why as a leftist he's supporting the current Hungary government is unclear, but being a tankie requires you to start with the US being bad and work the rest out from there.)

"Ridiculous" and "Tankie" are non-specific characterizations which mostly indicate whether or not you like a person or their opinions. But in the same vein, let us recall Mate has been awarded the Ithaca College Journalism School's Izzy award (which is considered prestigious).

Mate, specifically, has a record of reliable fact-based investigative and integrational reporting on subjects such as "Russia-gate" (i.e. the various claims regarding Russian involvement in 2016 US elections and the candidates' campaigns), as well as the alleged chemical attack in Douma, Syria in 2018 and the coverup within the OPCW of the investigation of that attack.

I don't know about the Hungary situation and have not read Mate's work on that; but links would be appreciated.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#347

Post by runnerup »

bhk wrote: post #309
runnerup wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They fact-checked "salinity-matched C4"? My god they're terrible.

Acoustic impedance of seawater varies with salinity.

Sure but that doesn’t generalize to other materials. Salinity matched C4 won’t be acoustically matched. Definitely a red herring point.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#348

Post by joshsyn »

anlsh wrote: post #328
jakeinspace wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US made no such official promise. Apparently not even unofficially, Gorbachev denied that Clinton ever made that personal promise.

You're wrong. There was indeed never anything "official", but high-level diplomats (such as the US Secretary of State) did promise as much behind closed doors. See https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017...

[dead]

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#349

Post by thephyber »

epistasis wrote: post #288
thephyber wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin’s statement the night of the invasion: [1] [1] https://www.c-span.org/video/?518097-2/russian-president-put...

Exactly, the NATO stuff is nonsense from Westerners who are trying to backform a rationale to support Russia, that directly contradicts the motives of Russia. Those who now claim NATO as justification for Russia's aggression were also saying that Russia would not invade as the US predicted, right up until it happened. For true motivations, your video is spot on, and see for example Putin's 2021 essay which was basica…

I don’t buy the Mearsheimer narrative as the primary purpose for invasion, but I do think it contributed in a small way.

I just happen to believe that Putin wanted the prize, had flawed intelligence, and had gotten away with progressively larger incursions (Georgia, Crimea, fomented rebellions in the Donbas, etc) and nobody was willing/able to stop him, so he had no reason to believe they would in Kyiv.

I’m also not convinced that we know enough of the story yet. Water shortage in Crimea, Putin pressured from the political hardliners, maybe a Wag The Dog situation, possible newly discovered hydrocarbon deposits in UA, loss of energy supply lines, or simply sending a message to other former USSR satellite states.

Re: Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

#350

Post by halothane »

kurthr wrote: post #292
halothane wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haha, Bellingcat is your source vs a Pulitzer Prize journalist who may have fallen out of favor with a particular crowd, and you want the comment to be taken seriously? Not all us drink Koolaid. Here's a link to your link - about Brown Moses, an unemployed man from Leicester, England ( https://www.cjr.org/business_of_news/bellingcat_brown_moses.... )

Good idea, judge based only on the name of the source, completely captured by narrative and unable to make decisions based any measurable facts they present. Pick a football team and cheer them to victory for surely that's the right way to understand the world, the economy, and geopolitics! Don't read anything from the London Review of Books either since you might not agree with them. It's scary to hear new things. I…

>>>>Good idea, judge based only on the name of the source, completely captured by narrative and unable to make decisions based any measurable facts they present. Pick a football team and cheer them to victory for surely that's the right way to understand the world, the economy, and geopolitics! Lots of words, but nothing that adds to the discussion that the source of your "new things" is a bunch of Tik-Tokers doing armchair analysis. Here's another description of your trusted sources - "Brown Moses aka Eliot Higgins, is the founder of an online collective called Bellingcat that picks apart conspiracy theories and investigates war crimes and hate crimes using clues from the Internet." Wow, how amazing that we can now understand the world, the economy, and geopolitics from sitting in our gaming chair using clues from the internet. Yah, let's dispute about chlorine gas in the "great war" since you and I are experts at chemical warfare and we both have access to proven, evidence-based reliable data aka Bellingcat and London Review of Books!
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