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The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

modernfarmer.com

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Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#71
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say the majority of that ends up in the sea, causing algae blooms and killing life for miles around. So worse than wasted.

Surely there is more farm land away from the sea than adjacent to it. How does for example fertilizer from here[1] or here[2] end up at sea? [1] https://goo.gl/maps/Pm4JGesJZ9xELrBB8 [2] https://goo.gl/maps/rzGttw1gMchSWXREA

For the US, there's a nice app where you can follow the watershed path: https://river-runner.samlearner.com/

Edit, direct link to the pinpoint: https://river-runner.samlearner.com/?lng=-98.92662834458773&...

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#73
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is so little organic matter in the topsoil due to modern farming practices and it gets worse every year. The result is soil that doesn't retain water, it just runs off. This means that irrigation has to be more and more frequent, and it means that fertilizer runs off (causing algal blooms etc) more than it percolates into the soil Lots of places to read more about this issue and here's a start: https://www.nhm.…

I'm not sure why the general tone of HN seems to be that modern farming isn't changing at all. Erosion has been on everyone's radar for decades. We went from plow -> till -> low till -> no till. Believe me, the folks who do this talk about plowing practices and cover crops. They also discuss GMO crops and the crazy legal restrictions around seed that come with it. > Brown earth has a deep top layer where most of the…

What they don't seem to be talking about is learning from indigenous farming communities who use things like diversity in crops and rotation to keep soil quality high. These problems were solved decades ago, just not by the industrial farming community

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#74
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[1] - down the Arkansas river to the Mississippi, and right out to sea. [2] - down the Danube, and right out to sea.

That still dozens, if not hundreds of kilometers the fertilizer somehow needs to walk.

It doesn't walk, it flows - sometimes above ground, sometimes under - to the nearest tiny gully, creek, stream, spring, etc., with very few exceptions.

The network for the USA: https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/10/21/16/3995911F000005...

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#75
Two things.

1. I hate how everything has to have a financialised solution:

  To achieve this, the report suggests “mobilizing international financial support” and implementing tools such as “fertilizer contract swaps” to keep farmer costs manageable.
2. I read articles like this and wonder, will the world ditch meat, or will will the richer countries continue to eat ridiculous amounts of the stuff, using up all the land that could grow food for a plant based diet? Something will have ti give at some point.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#76
post #27
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt it. In as much as they are allowed to function, markets will reward people addressing the shortages with outsized profit. Same as getting through the energy crisis, we can overcome the food crisis, one obstacle at a time. The connectedness of economies is also an advantage. Shipping rates are almost at a 3-year low: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic The greatest risk are policies forbidding "price…

I'm not sure i follow. How exactly will the people "awarded with outsized profit for addressing the shortages" help those starving due to lack of affordable food? "The market" doesn't work for goods whose demand is inelastic, such as food and medicine. Letting people starve "to allow the market to function" is cold blooded greed.

the market does work for goods whose demand is inelastic

at the cme wheat costs 8.38 dollars per bushel, 31¢ per kg, and 1 kg of wheat is roughly two person-days' worth of food, 57 dollars per person-year

(of course an actual diet needs to be more varied and therefore slightly more expensive, but even just cooked wheat will extend your survival time under famine conditions by quite a lot)

let's start by dividing the cases to consider into ① cases where people have substantially more than 57 dollars per year to spend on food, whether in the form of production, money savings, foreign aid, or salable goods, and ② cases where they don't

we can subdivide case ① into case ①ⓐ where there are price controls, so that people who sell wheat at substantially higher prices than, say, 50¢ per kg, are subject to criminal prosecution, and case ①ⓑ where they are not

in case ①ⓑ you do not have a famine, and people do not starve, because even if delivering the food is very difficult and dangerous (①ⓑⅰ), due to pirates and collapsing currencies and whatnot, it will be profitable (for somebody anyway); maybe you'll have one merchant selling wheat at 2 dollars per kilogram and making an outsized profit, while another made worse choices and would need 3 dollars per kilogram and therefore has to take a loss from competing with the first merchant. and if it is not difficult and dangerous (case ①ⓑⅱ) then someone will sell wheat at 60¢ a kilogram in the supermarkets and there will be no outsized profits but still nobody will starve

in case ①ⓐ you might get lucky, maybe getting wheat into the country and distributed will not be difficult and dangerous (①ⓑⅱ), and so there's no shortages even though there are price controls. but if shipping costs go up, or bandits steal half the wheat in transit, or supermarkets can't open because of rioting, (①ⓑⅰ) selling wheat will be unprofitable at the legal price, and so merchants will do it as little as possible, and people will starve due to lack of not only affordable food but any food. wheat will rot in silos or be fed to livestock in order to avoid prosecution

in case ②, where people have less than 100 dollars per year and so can't afford to pay for the food they need to stay alive through voluntary exchange, their only hope for survival is to seize it by force, price controls or no price controls. this is a frequent occurrence throughout human history, and of course there's a whole continuum from a hypothetical state of perfect liberty, through transparent flat tax rates, through mafia protection rackets, all the way to raiding bands of thuggees and the holodomor.

systems that are closer to the totalitarian end of this spectrum tend to have frequent famines because, again, people starve due to lack of not only affordable food but any food at all; the holodomor is one example, but other examples are the irish potato famine, the ethiopian famine caused by the derg, the frequent famines in india under the british raj, and the greatest famine in human history, the great leap forward

because the cold-blooded-greed-powered market is, generally speaking, how people get fed in the first place, if you want to reduce the number of people who starve, you will let it function

i mean, unless you have a better replacement for the cold-blooded market, already debugged and working, but the track record of the proposed alternatives so far includes many of the worst atrocities in human history

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#77
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[1] - down the Arkansas river to the Mississippi, and right out to sea. [2] - down the Danube, and right out to sea.

That still dozens, if not hundreds of kilometers the fertilizer somehow needs to walk.

It's water soluble.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure why the general tone of HN seems to be that modern farming isn't changing at all. Erosion has been on everyone's radar for decades. We went from plow -> till -> low till -> no till. Believe me, the folks who do this talk about plowing practices and cover crops. They also discuss GMO crops and the crazy legal restrictions around seed that come with it. > Brown earth has a deep top layer where most of the…

What they don't seem to be talking about is learning from indigenous farming communities who use things like diversity in crops and rotation to keep soil quality high. These problems were solved decades ago, just not by the industrial farming community

Crop rotation is a standard practice. Sugar beats cannot be grown year after year on the same plot.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#79
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[1] - down the Arkansas river to the Mississippi, and right out to sea. [2] - down the Danube, and right out to sea.

That still dozens, if not hundreds of kilometers the fertilizer somehow needs to walk.

It's 14km (8.8mi) from your pinpoint to the Arkansas, from there it's about as straight of a shot toward the gulf of mexico as you can get (via the Mississippi).

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#80
post #8

Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…

I don't see how that's sustained by the article. This is just another face of the energy crunch. Oil and gas are somewhat rarer more expensive, and so everything made from them is more expensive and the economy needs to seek to a new price equilibrium. In this case, that mostly means "reduced travel and air freight" and "reduced gas heating usage". But as a side effect farmers need to scramble to match their own mark…

There is a famine in Madagascar now, although not related to fertiliser. The system is fragile
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