The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
modernfarmer.com
The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
1–10 of 271 posts
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#2Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic.
Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the pandemic over the next generation. We're going to see this event loud and clear in every economic and demographic chart for the next half-century, aren't we?
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#3Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…
Assuming this is the only loud event for the next 50 years.
Or, this past three years event is the start of a longer, bigger event. Then, the ignition is lost in the flame.
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#4Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…
I doubt it. In as much as they are allowed to function, markets will reward people addressing the shortages with outsized profit.
Same as getting through the energy crisis, we can overcome the food crisis, one obstacle at a time.
The connectedness of economies is also an advantage. Shipping rates are almost at a 3-year low: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic
The greatest risk are policies forbidding "price gouging" going haywire and actually forbidding disaster response.
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#5Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…
probably. heart attacks on the rise for covid survivors aged 25-44 https://www.khon2.com/local-news/heart-attacks-on-dramatic-r...
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#6Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…
Assuming this is the only loud event for the next 50 years. Or, this past three years event is the start of a longer, bigger event. Then, the ignition is lost in the flame.
> Then, the ignition is lost in the flame.
Goosebumps from this line. It's apt and thoughtful. I'm thinking about how these events can be fractal-like. The past few years of active pandemic have felt like the "flame" but could be seen as the "ignition" for countless other, possibly even worse global events. It's like a Great Tree Shaking: all non-resilient systems began showing cracks of one size or another, cascading stress to other systems, many of which buckle or break.
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#7Recently, I have seen a short-sighted push to allow human waste to fertilize crops.
That is absolutely 100% not the solution to anything for probably a dozen very good reasons. The impact of this kind of "recycling" is well studied and the negatives outweigh the positives.
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#8Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…
I don't see how that's sustained by the article. This is just another face of the energy crunch. Oil and gas are somewhat rarer more expensive, and so everything made from them is more expensive and the economy needs to seek to a new price equilibrium. In this case, that mostly means "reduced travel and air freight" and "reduced gas heating usage".
But as a side effect farmers need to scramble to match their own market. So some of this will end up meaning "more expensive fertilizer-heavy crops". But at the economic level farming is less able to tolerate volatility (you can't JustInTime a soybean, literally farmers reap what was sown months ago), so there's need for some assistance at the regulatory level. Which is what this article is about.
Basically, no. No famines. Just pricing and regulatory changes.
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
Assuming this is the only loud event for the next 50 years. Or, this past three years event is the start of a longer, bigger event. Then, the ignition is lost in the flame.
> Then, the ignition is lost in the flame. Goosebumps from this line. It's apt and thoughtful. I'm thinking about how these events can be fractal-like. The past few years of active pandemic have felt like the "flame" but could be seen as the "ignition" for countless other, possibly even worse global events. It's like a Great Tree Shaking: all non-resilient systems began showing cracks of one size or another, cascadin…
Arguably history is the study of an ever-breaking quasi-non-resilient combination of systems and arguing that your particular causal viewpoint is the One True one.
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#10Recently, I have seen a short-sighted push to allow human waste to fertilize crops. That is absolutely 100% not the solution to anything for probably a dozen very good reasons. The impact of this kind of "recycling" is well studied and the negatives outweigh the positives.
Pharmaceutical contamination seems like the biggest problem, but I guess heating to kill pathogens makes the energy math unfavorable as well.