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The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

modernfarmer.com

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Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#41

Post by marginalia_nu »

soperj wrote: post #25
photochemsyn wrote: post #19

A remarkable amount of the fertilizer applied via modern industrial farming practices is just wasted: > "According to an average of 13 global databases from 10 data sources, in 2010, 161 teragrams of nitrogen were applied to agricultural crops, but only 73 teragrams of nitrogen made it to the harvested crop. A total of 86 teragrams of nitrogen was wasted, perhaps ending up in the water, air, or soil. The new research…

I'd say the majority of that ends up in the sea, causing algae blooms and killing life for miles around. So worse than wasted.

Surely there is more farm land away from the sea than adjacent to it. How does for example fertilizer from here[1] or here[2] end up at sea?

[1] https://goo.gl/maps/Pm4JGesJZ9xELrBB8 [2] https://goo.gl/maps/rzGttw1gMchSWXREA

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#42

Post by hammock »

danuker wrote: post #4
Waterluvian wrote: post #2

Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…

I doubt it. In as much as they are allowed to function, markets will reward people addressing the shortages with outsized profit. Same as getting through the energy crisis, we can overcome the food crisis, one obstacle at a time. The connectedness of economies is also an advantage. Shipping rates are almost at a 3-year low: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic The greatest risk are policies forbidding "price…

>I doubt it. In as much as they are allowed to function, markets will reward people addressing the shortages with outsized profit.

Standing nuclear armies 600K+ soldiers strong enforcing blockades, embargoes, price caps, bans, sanctions etc are not the most shining indicator of a free market that will correct shortages to equilibrium...

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#43

Post by prepend »

Avicebron wrote: post #35
photochemsyn wrote: post #19

A remarkable amount of the fertilizer applied via modern industrial farming practices is just wasted: > "According to an average of 13 global databases from 10 data sources, in 2010, 161 teragrams of nitrogen were applied to agricultural crops, but only 73 teragrams of nitrogen made it to the harvested crop. A total of 86 teragrams of nitrogen was wasted, perhaps ending up in the water, air, or soil. The new research…

While it's cool and all to want to work on AI+Robots, because obviously that's where this thought is coming from because who wants to actually work in the fields am I right?\s I think it's more important to think about market fit and margins of farming, in what world is introducing a complex, expensive machine to an already thin margin industry a practical solution? The reason it's inefficient and wasteful isn't beca…

> in what world is introducing a complex, expensive machine to an already thin margin industry a practical solution

In the world where it is cheaper than the rising price of fertilizer.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#44

Post by hedora »

hammock wrote: post #26
photochemsyn wrote: post #19

A remarkable amount of the fertilizer applied via modern industrial farming practices is just wasted: > "According to an average of 13 global databases from 10 data sources, in 2010, 161 teragrams of nitrogen were applied to agricultural crops, but only 73 teragrams of nitrogen made it to the harvested crop. A total of 86 teragrams of nitrogen was wasted, perhaps ending up in the water, air, or soil. The new research…

There is so little organic matter in the topsoil due to modern farming practices and it gets worse every year. The result is soil that doesn't retain water, it just runs off. This means that irrigation has to be more and more frequent, and it means that fertilizer runs off (causing algal blooms etc) more than it percolates into the soil Lots of places to read more about this issue and here's a start: https://www.nhm.…

It’s strange that the article you linked doesn’t mention no-till farming. Farmers replace the plows on their tractors (which turn over the soil) with knives that have fertilizer injectors on the tips. Rather than plow, then spray fertilizer on to the surface, they inject fertilizer into the ground. After a few years, earthworms reestablish themselves and naturally aerate the soil.

This can be combined with other (well established, commercially available) precision agriculture techniques to minimize irrigation and fertilizer waste.

The big problem is the up front cost of replacing tractor implements, and training labor.

Anyway, this is much easier than agroforestry, building glass hydroponics towers, etc.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#45

Post by horsawlarway »

Avicebron wrote: post #35
photochemsyn wrote: post #19

A remarkable amount of the fertilizer applied via modern industrial farming practices is just wasted: > "According to an average of 13 global databases from 10 data sources, in 2010, 161 teragrams of nitrogen were applied to agricultural crops, but only 73 teragrams of nitrogen made it to the harvested crop. A total of 86 teragrams of nitrogen was wasted, perhaps ending up in the water, air, or soil. The new research…

While it's cool and all to want to work on AI+Robots, because obviously that's where this thought is coming from because who wants to actually work in the fields am I right?\s I think it's more important to think about market fit and margins of farming, in what world is introducing a complex, expensive machine to an already thin margin industry a practical solution? The reason it's inefficient and wasteful isn't beca…

Yes, but fast and cheap is temporary (and the end result is a lot of pain).

This is a problem that requires structural investment from government (the populace) but once done, the return on investment seems very high.

How do you think the Netherlands are the second leading agricultural exporter in the world right now? Short answer - very efficient greenhouses.

To get an idea of just how efficient - they use ~4 to 9 liters of water per pound of tomatoes produced. The world average is 60 liters per pound of tomatoes. Not the high end - the AVERAGE.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#46

Post by danuker »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #29
danuker wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt it. In as much as they are allowed to function, markets will reward people addressing the shortages with outsized profit. Same as getting through the energy crisis, we can overcome the food crisis, one obstacle at a time. The connectedness of economies is also an advantage. Shipping rates are almost at a 3-year low: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic The greatest risk are policies forbidding "price…

> I doubt it. In as much as they are allowed to function, markets will reward people addressing the shortages with outsized profit This is dangerous, fantasy thinking detached fromt the real world.v If there is shortage of food today, you plant wheat today, it will be ready to eat in 7 months. If it's not the right time to plant, it could be a year. By that time, people will be dead already. Now, we don't even have i…

How is my thinking dangerous? Not allowing profit is dangerous, because it won't attract suppliers.

High prices might prompt some people elsewhere to reduce their consumption, in favor of ones more in need.

You can address some of the future price uncertainties with a futures market. That way, you can see what the price you'll get in 7 months' time, and decide what you should plant.

But if a place has no means of growing food and no money, why stay there?

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#47

Post by [deleted] »

djbusby wrote: post #3
Waterluvian wrote: post #2

Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…

Assuming this is the only loud event for the next 50 years. Or, this past three years event is the start of a longer, bigger event. Then, the ignition is lost in the flame.

[deleted]

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#48

Post by hammock »

marginalia_nu wrote: post #41
soperj wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say the majority of that ends up in the sea, causing algae blooms and killing life for miles around. So worse than wasted.

Surely there is more farm land away from the sea than adjacent to it. How does for example fertilizer from here[1] or here[2] end up at sea? [1] https://goo.gl/maps/Pm4JGesJZ9xELrBB8 [2] https://goo.gl/maps/rzGttw1gMchSWXREA

The Mississippi and Rhine Rivers

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#49

Post by ceejayoz »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #39
afarrell wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguably the war in Ukraine was influenced by the unrest against Lukanhesko after his poor handling of covid-19...and by Russians thinking that was yet another example of NATO attacks against their security.

This war has one primary cause: Putin. Anything else is a very distant secondary. COVID caused Putin to isolate and become paranoid, but it's still Putin's fault, not COVID's.

Putin's motivations predate the war, too; the invasion of Crimea was in 2014, and before that was Georgia in 2008.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#50

Post by soperj »

marginalia_nu wrote: post #41
soperj wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say the majority of that ends up in the sea, causing algae blooms and killing life for miles around. So worse than wasted.

Surely there is more farm land away from the sea than adjacent to it. How does for example fertilizer from here[1] or here[2] end up at sea? [1] https://goo.gl/maps/Pm4JGesJZ9xELrBB8 [2] https://goo.gl/maps/rzGttw1gMchSWXREA

[1] - down the Arkansas river to the Mississippi, and right out to sea.

[2] - down the Danube, and right out to sea.

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