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The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

modernfarmer.com

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Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#51

Post by tmountain »

hammock wrote: post #26
photochemsyn wrote: post #19

A remarkable amount of the fertilizer applied via modern industrial farming practices is just wasted: > "According to an average of 13 global databases from 10 data sources, in 2010, 161 teragrams of nitrogen were applied to agricultural crops, but only 73 teragrams of nitrogen made it to the harvested crop. A total of 86 teragrams of nitrogen was wasted, perhaps ending up in the water, air, or soil. The new research…

There is so little organic matter in the topsoil due to modern farming practices and it gets worse every year. The result is soil that doesn't retain water, it just runs off. This means that irrigation has to be more and more frequent, and it means that fertilizer runs off (causing algal blooms etc) more than it percolates into the soil Lots of places to read more about this issue and here's a start: https://www.nhm.…

Yup, most gardening books start off talking about humus, “dark, organic material that forms in soil when plant and animal matter decays.”

Industrial farms are very far away from the foundations of healthy soil, and they need copious amounts of fertilizer and water to compensate.

The food produced is less nutritious and less sustainable as a result.

Consider investing in a local CSA if you have the opportunity. It’s a fantastic way to support locally sustainable agriculture.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#52

Post by ceejayoz »

GalenErso wrote: post #14
debacle wrote: post #7

Recently, I have seen a short-sighted push to allow human waste to fertilize crops. That is absolutely 100% not the solution to anything for probably a dozen very good reasons. The impact of this kind of "recycling" is well studied and the negatives outweigh the positives.

North Korea uses human waste as a fertilizer. Which causes this: North Korean defector found to have 'enormous parasites' https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-420... > "I've never seen anything like this in my 20 years as a physician," South Korean doctor Lee Cook-jong told journalists, explaining that the longest worm removed from the patient's intestines was 27cm (11in) long. > In 2015 South Kor…

> North Korea uses human waste as a fertilizer. Which causes this: North Korean defector found to have 'enormous parasites'

Using untreated human waste causes that.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#53

Post by hammock »

hedora wrote: post #44
hammock wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is so little organic matter in the topsoil due to modern farming practices and it gets worse every year. The result is soil that doesn't retain water, it just runs off. This means that irrigation has to be more and more frequent, and it means that fertilizer runs off (causing algal blooms etc) more than it percolates into the soil Lots of places to read more about this issue and here's a start: https://www.nhm.…

It’s strange that the article you linked doesn’t mention no-till farming. Farmers replace the plows on their tractors (which turn over the soil) with knives that have fertilizer injectors on the tips. Rather than plow, then spray fertilizer on to the surface, they inject fertilizer into the ground. After a few years, earthworms reestablish themselves and naturally aerate the soil. This can be combined with other (wel…

Thanks I was looking for a youtube video that I couldn't find so I grabbed the first article I saw that explained that problem well. As for solutions, you are right no-till is a big one (the main one?) and is worth reading about elsewhere

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#54

Post by photochemsyn »

Avicebron wrote: post #35
photochemsyn wrote: post #19

A remarkable amount of the fertilizer applied via modern industrial farming practices is just wasted: > "According to an average of 13 global databases from 10 data sources, in 2010, 161 teragrams of nitrogen were applied to agricultural crops, but only 73 teragrams of nitrogen made it to the harvested crop. A total of 86 teragrams of nitrogen was wasted, perhaps ending up in the water, air, or soil. The new research…

While it's cool and all to want to work on AI+Robots, because obviously that's where this thought is coming from because who wants to actually work in the fields am I right?\s I think it's more important to think about market fit and margins of farming, in what world is introducing a complex, expensive machine to an already thin margin industry a practical solution? The reason it's inefficient and wasteful isn't beca…

Modern industrial-scale farming equipment is already highly engineered. Adding features that allowed for more precise care of individual plants would be an extension of existing technology, not something radically new. Take a look at modern combine harvesters, for example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2LnkKgwpOE

This is also a sector that would benefit from electrification, incidentally.

Of course, the fossil fuel and petrochemical sector won't like being cut out of the agriculture business to any extent, so there's that kind of resistance to such changes.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#55

Post by heisenbit »

Waterluvian wrote: post #2

Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…

Sooner or later energy prices will increase and fertilizer will get more expensive. Step functions and impulses are useful ways to probe the inner working of a system and in this case helped to highlight the dominant role energy plays everywhere. We re-learned what we forgot or ignored since the last energy aka. oil price shock in the '70. In the long run the situation for food security is challenging unless we switch to a different paradigm of farming and population control.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#56

Post by CuriouslyC »

debacle wrote: post #7

Recently, I have seen a short-sighted push to allow human waste to fertilize crops. That is absolutely 100% not the solution to anything for probably a dozen very good reasons. The impact of this kind of "recycling" is well studied and the negatives outweigh the positives.

Human waste can be composted and leached out into aquaculture systems or the irrigation system for livestock crops.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#57

Post by bjt2n3904 »

Man. Whenever I see these threads, I see a ton of people hopping in with their ideas on how to optimize a critical resource. It's the "heat people, not homes" mantra.

I mean, I get it. Every programmer salivates at the idea of writing a super efficient hand crafted assembly routine that blows the doors off of what's on the market right now, and that's good.

But I can't help but think... If I wanted to drastically change people's behavior, it can be done easily.

Step one: Cause a supply chain issue, creating artificial scarcity.

Step two: Lecture everyone on how they need to be less wasteful, caution them about how painful life will be if "we aren't all in this together".

Step three: Find every day Joe's and make an example of them in the public sphere for selfishly squandering precious resources. The public will gladly be your enforcers, thinking that if they all try hard enough the artificially created problem will go away.

This technique always results in artificially created human suffering, and waste. The old joke about economic systems and cows was something to the tune of, "you have two cows. The communist milks your cows, and pours the milk down the drain".

It's fascinating to read what Gareth Jones wrote about tractors in the Soviet Union -- how meddlesome people who didn't know how to farm / engineer inserted themselves into the process to tell everyone how to do their jobs, and royally screwed everything up.

Edit: Link for the curious. Day thirty.

https://www.garethjones.org/soviet_articles/experiences_in_r...

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#58

Post by mattpallissard »

hammock wrote: post #26
photochemsyn wrote: post #19

A remarkable amount of the fertilizer applied via modern industrial farming practices is just wasted: > "According to an average of 13 global databases from 10 data sources, in 2010, 161 teragrams of nitrogen were applied to agricultural crops, but only 73 teragrams of nitrogen made it to the harvested crop. A total of 86 teragrams of nitrogen was wasted, perhaps ending up in the water, air, or soil. The new research…

There is so little organic matter in the topsoil due to modern farming practices and it gets worse every year. The result is soil that doesn't retain water, it just runs off. This means that irrigation has to be more and more frequent, and it means that fertilizer runs off (causing algal blooms etc) more than it percolates into the soil Lots of places to read more about this issue and here's a start: https://www.nhm.…

I'm not sure why the general tone of HN seems to be that modern farming isn't changing at all.

Erosion has been on everyone's radar for decades. We went from plow -> till -> low till -> no till. Believe me, the folks who do this talk about plowing practices and cover crops. They also discuss GMO crops and the crazy legal restrictions around seed that come with it.

> Brown earth has a deep top layer where most of the nutrients are and biological activities take place. At around 20 centimetres deep

Fun fact, where I grew up there is over 10 feet of black dirt before you hit bedrock. A lot of the Midwestern US is like that. Even with all that runway those guys _still_ discuss erosion.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#59

Post by narrator »

Avicebron wrote: post #35
photochemsyn wrote: post #19

A remarkable amount of the fertilizer applied via modern industrial farming practices is just wasted: > "According to an average of 13 global databases from 10 data sources, in 2010, 161 teragrams of nitrogen were applied to agricultural crops, but only 73 teragrams of nitrogen made it to the harvested crop. A total of 86 teragrams of nitrogen was wasted, perhaps ending up in the water, air, or soil. The new research…

While it's cool and all to want to work on AI+Robots, because obviously that's where this thought is coming from because who wants to actually work in the fields am I right?\s I think it's more important to think about market fit and margins of farming, in what world is introducing a complex, expensive machine to an already thin margin industry a practical solution? The reason it's inefficient and wasteful isn't beca…

AI robots that do companion planting with robots. There's a free idea for you. Harvesting would not work with combine harvesters. You'd have to harvest corn planted with beans like you were picking strawberries, but with robots, maybe it's doable.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#60

Post by qikInNdOutReply »

danuker wrote: post #33
qikInNdOutReply wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you price gouge something like Sri-Lakha, that has no currency to trade with? This whole mental model just has no grasp for the moment when the rear of the car falls off..

Hire its citizens. No money means you'd benefit by sending them money. But inequality is a different problem than getting through crises. It should be addressed while leaving the production incentives intact. For example, progressive and/or negative income taxes.

Its citizens pay top dollar (earned by others abroad) to leave en mass. The state is collapsing and taking bribes to allow this.

So the free market creates waves, that set other systems under pressure, creating a domino tsunami. Were are the models for that? The solutions for that? Runaway to mars or NZ?

I want to express how jaring this ideology-irresponsibility background noise is regardless of ideologic affiliation.

The {MAGIC_TOTEM} will fix it, and then dangling discussion, problems, you are on your own good luck. It is moments like these, that are a direct attack on democracy and a engligthened citizenry as concept, leaving the pessimistic grown ups to contemplate full scenarios, while stealing oneself out of the problem space.

MAGIC_TOTEM = FreeMarket| God | Society

Countriy need solutions:

Short-term:Food delivery. Stabilization.

Mid-term: Fertilizer on credit

Long-Term: Fertilizer, made in situ (solar), in uncorruptable form (direct material transfer to farmers).

Passivity: Amplifies the problem.

The market is voting for a explosion and to make it your problem in the long run, directly and indirectly.

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