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The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

modernfarmer.com

11–20 of 271 posts

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#11
post #7

Recently, I have seen a short-sighted push to allow human waste to fertilize crops. That is absolutely 100% not the solution to anything for probably a dozen very good reasons. The impact of this kind of "recycling" is well studied and the negatives outweigh the positives.

Care to elaborate? What did those studies show? As far as I know, properly handled humanure is quite effective. And it's better than letting excess nitrogen seep into the waterways.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#12

Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…

probably. heart attacks on the rise for covid survivors aged 25-44 https://www.khon2.com/local-news/heart-attacks-on-dramatic-r...

First, this content is locked in my region so I don't know exactly what you linked to.

Second, if you are linking to a news article about that one University guy who said young people shouldn't take the vaccine, it is my understanding that his study was flawed. But again, I can't read the article so take this with a grain of salt.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#13
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming this is the only loud event for the next 50 years. Or, this past three years event is the start of a longer, bigger event. Then, the ignition is lost in the flame.

> Then, the ignition is lost in the flame. Goosebumps from this line. It's apt and thoughtful. I'm thinking about how these events can be fractal-like. The past few years of active pandemic have felt like the "flame" but could be seen as the "ignition" for countless other, possibly even worse global events. It's like a Great Tree Shaking: all non-resilient systems began showing cracks of one size or another, cascadin…

Lost ignitions: the research being done in Wuhan, the 2014-2022 civil war in Ukraine, the Las Vegas mass shooting, etc?

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#14
post #7

Recently, I have seen a short-sighted push to allow human waste to fertilize crops. That is absolutely 100% not the solution to anything for probably a dozen very good reasons. The impact of this kind of "recycling" is well studied and the negatives outweigh the positives.

North Korea uses human waste as a fertilizer.

Which causes this: North Korean defector found to have 'enormous parasites'

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-420...

> "I've never seen anything like this in my 20 years as a physician," South Korean doctor Lee Cook-jong told journalists, explaining that the longest worm removed from the patient's intestines was 27cm (11in) long.

> In 2015 South Korean researchers studied the health records of North Korean defectors who had visited a hospital in Cheonan between 2006 and 2014.

> They found that they showed higher rates of chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C, tuberculosis and parasite infections, compared to South Koreans.

> The soldier's food may have been contaminated because the North still uses human faeces as fertiliser, known as "night soil".

> Lee Min-bok, a North Korean agriculture expert, told Reuters: "Chemical fertiliser was supplied by the state until the 1970s. By the 1990s, the state could not supply it any more, so farmers started to use a lot of night soil instead."

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

probably. heart attacks on the rise for covid survivors aged 25-44 https://www.khon2.com/local-news/heart-attacks-on-dramatic-r...

First, this content is locked in my region so I don't know exactly what you linked to. Second, if you are linking to a news article about that one University guy who said young people shouldn't take the vaccine, it is my understanding that his study was flawed. But again, I can't read the article so take this with a grain of salt.

[deleted]

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#16
post #4

Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…

I doubt it. In as much as they are allowed to function, markets will reward people addressing the shortages with outsized profit. Same as getting through the energy crisis, we can overcome the food crisis, one obstacle at a time. The connectedness of economies is also an advantage. Shipping rates are almost at a 3-year low: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic The greatest risk are policies forbidding "price…

Having trust in the market is not a magic solution. Yes, prices will rise as they already are if there is a shortage but that's not going to make local production materialises out of thin air if there are other obstacles.

At some point, you need a concerted strategic answer at the correct level if you are facing a strategic threat like disruption of food supply. That's why China restricted exports. It remains to be seen if the USA and Europe will react fast enough and appropriately enough. What happened with Covid doesn't give me much hope.

Edit: As I am downvoted strongly (I imagine that it’s because the Covid answer is stupidly seen as political in the US - at least I hope so because if it’s about the ability of the market to solve issues it doesn’t bode well for us all), the EU took ages to secure first masks then vaccine supply and the utter stupidity of the US answer which avoided imposing wearing masks and making vaccination mandatory costed you hundred thousands of unnecessary death compared to country of equivalent development. Look at Taiwan or South Korea to see how it supposed to be done.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#17
post #7

Recently, I have seen a short-sighted push to allow human waste to fertilize crops. That is absolutely 100% not the solution to anything for probably a dozen very good reasons. The impact of this kind of "recycling" is well studied and the negatives outweigh the positives.

[deleted]

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

probably. heart attacks on the rise for covid survivors aged 25-44 https://www.khon2.com/local-news/heart-attacks-on-dramatic-r...

First, this content is locked in my region so I don't know exactly what you linked to. Second, if you are linking to a news article about that one University guy who said young people shouldn't take the vaccine, it is my understanding that his study was flawed. But again, I can't read the article so take this with a grain of salt.

Here's the academic article immediately linked to in the above news page: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.28187

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#19
A remarkable amount of the fertilizer applied via modern industrial farming practices is just wasted:

> "According to an average of 13 global databases from 10 data sources, in 2010, 161 teragrams of nitrogen were applied to agricultural crops, but only 73 teragrams of nitrogen made it to the harvested crop. A total of 86 teragrams of nitrogen was wasted, perhaps ending up in the water, air, or soil. The new research was published in the journal Nature Food in July."

https://eos.org/articles/index-suggests-that-half-of-nitroge...

Large-area applications by mechanized systems seem to be part of the problem, but that's also necessary to escape the subsitence agriculture trap, i.e. with such systems, it's not necessary for half or more of the human population to be working in the fields to grow food, it's more like 1 in 50 or 1 in 100.

The most promising solution might be AI + robots. If a robot could crawl up and down fields inspecting individual plants for nutrient status and applying small amounts of fertilizer as needed (also weeding and checking for pest infestations), it could cut fertilizer use in half while maintaining the same level of production - and perhaps eliminate the need for most herbicides and pesticides.

Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023

#20
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming this is the only loud event for the next 50 years. Or, this past three years event is the start of a longer, bigger event. Then, the ignition is lost in the flame.

> Then, the ignition is lost in the flame. Goosebumps from this line. It's apt and thoughtful. I'm thinking about how these events can be fractal-like. The past few years of active pandemic have felt like the "flame" but could be seen as the "ignition" for countless other, possibly even worse global events. It's like a Great Tree Shaking: all non-resilient systems began showing cracks of one size or another, cascadin…

We spent the first 50 years of the information age building systems to be as hyper-efficient as possible, with ruthless competition eliminating resiliency first in existing commercial, social, and political structures, and then in the education and life experience of the people that built those structures later. Like a Californian wilderness, we've been accumulating surface fuel load for decades.
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