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Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

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531–540 of 835 posts

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#531
I know this might not be a popular opinion, but: late-stage capitalism. Not (necessarily) from the /r/latestagecapitalism everything-sucks capitalism-sucks stance, but more fundamental than that.

We're living in an era of human history where core growth has effectively halted; and most "growth" since the 80s-90s has been synthetic. Real growth overwhelmingly comes from one place: rising population rates. The net rate of growth of our population, in the economies that matter to our global perception of the world, has effectively hit zero since the 70s; the excess deaths caused by multiple back-to-back recessions and COVID-19 close the gap on any small lead the birth rate may have had over the death rate.

Some people say "efficiency gains from automation will help close the economic gap caused by a declining population". Barely, but keep hope alive. Automation is extremely expensive, requiring complex machinery, complex software, smart engineers to build it, and smart operators to keep it running. All of those components have dozens of steps in the supply chain to get from raw material or babies to an effective, non-brittle system. The jump from "farming by hand" to "a tractor" is FAR more capital efficient than the jump from "a tractor" to "a tractor that drives itself". Why are Ubers so much more expensive than Cabs? Because Uber has to fund a massive engineering and logistics effort to automate the delivery of its services; cabs don't.

The more pertinent point to try and answer is: Why is the birth rate declining? There's a ton of proximate answers to this question, but the root cause of all the problems is really: declining growth in raw resource deposits and virgin land. This decline in growth has caused material things, and thus services, to all become more expensive over time.

These are the four things that keep an economy running effectively: People, Resources, Land, and Automation. When they fall out of balance, too much or too little, things start falling apart in both obvious and insidious ways. Wars are fought over countries having too much land and resources. Too little of them, and people can't afford to reproduce. Automation can help close some of the gap, but too much of it leads to expensive, brittle systems and non-productive bureaucracy to support them. An imbalance stresses the system; it stresses the people in it, it forces them to do counter-productive things like resort to robbery, it causes hormone imbalance which can lead to aggression, which influence the polices' default response from friend to foe, its a forcing function on today-over-tomorrow in businesses meeting demands from customers, taking shortcuts like not fully researching the harms of deploying some new chemical in food processing or dumping waste into the ocean or not properly responding to carbon emissions. Macroeconomics influences everything; it can raise people out of poverty, but it can also destroy them.

There's a few good things on the horizon that may improve the situation, though we're talking timescales of decades.

* There are large parts of the population whose labor has been under-exploited by the capitalist system. As China declines, SE-Asia is picking up some of the slack; and there's an entire content of people in Africa. Continuing industrial-scale exploitation of these people will help sustain us a bit; we've got a good start with e.g. diamond and cobalt mines in sub-Saharan Africa, and I expect we'll see even more over the next decade. The birth rate in these countries is still a lot healthier than the West/East; but, naturally, it won't stay that way as industrialization and fighting for workers rights happens, leading to improved standard of living; they're just a few decades behind us, but they'll catch up.

* COVID-19 reduced the population pretty substantially. Global warming will continue that trend into the next thirty years, killing and displacing in the eight to ten figures of people. Contrary to some previous points; this will actually be good for the short-term economy, though quite bad for the long-term one. Reducing consumption will be good. Mass migrations of desperate people will be good to keep the labor supply going. More deadly natural disasters will give the government the credibility it needs to spend money without triggering concerns about inflation or insolvency (similar to COVID-19). Just watch out for natural impacts to raw resources in the supply chain, like flooding in the US bread basket or wars in eastern europe over natural resources (ope).

* Space, I guess. If we, as a species, can start sustainably living, producing, and reproducing in space, either independent of gravity wells or within other ones; that's basically the only out without a massive disruption to civilization. Of course, there's challenges with space; but the sheer amount of resources should pretty easily overwhelm most of those challenges. If you're paying attention to what is happening and will continue to happen in the world: building technologies that will push forward the colonization of space destinations proximate to resource rich areas is the single most important thing humanity should be working on right now. There's nothing else. EVs are cool and important; but not the most important. Ad technology isn't important. Stopping climate change is long-past being attainable; but we're not talking about "escaping to space and leaving earth behind", we're talking about finding more balance, being able to send resources back to earth, creating optionality.

Late-stage capitalism not from the sense that capitalism always terminates in a world where we're living today. But from the sense that no global economic system is sustainable without growth. We can find more growth, or we can live in isolated communes at a thousandth the population size and subsistence farm (though given global warming this probably isn't an option anymore).

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#532
You're not off base regarding the cars and the crime. It is well documented. There has been an increase in traffic accidents the last three years and I have been following it because I wondered myself if I noticed it. NHTSA gives an update biannually I think. Road traffic deaths per mile driven increased in 2020, 2021, and 2022. I think it's still unknown if this is starting to revert to the pre pandemic mean but I haven't checked in about six months. It's related to the increase in crime although I have heard people suggest that there was simply a madness that occurred caused by empty streets during the covid lockdowns. Perhaps people got used to a lack of enforcement and being able to drive at much higher speeds on roads and they are set in their ways now. Police are somewhat unwilling to start enforcing this aggressively in my area because they have to take officers off of patrols and because it leads to an increase in violent officer encounters when they pull people over. The reality is they have bigger problems and not enough staff.

The cars you are talking about with modded exhausts could be just the area you are living in but there is a car culture involving loud, fast, sporty cars and the people who drive these cars are pretty apathetic about whether it annoys anyone. It's unclear to me if this is growing but I think it is anecdotally. Maybe it's worth looking into this further. It wouldn't be hard to track car sales and the growth of modded Japanese cars. I remember this always being a thing since Fast and Furious but I thought it died out for a while. not sure =\

Regarding the subscription revenue thing I think this comes from business schools and public companies wanting to secure revenue streams for investors. I think it is definitely overdone. In the cloud business it kind of works but I think this model of business is being applied to other businesses due to its success. You see almost everyone trying to convert their business (ink for printers!) into some kind of a subscription model. It's probably just a dumb trend that's being propagated by 'experts'. This is also me speculating.

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#533

> People are noisy as fuck and dont seem to give a shit. Seems like every night there's someone with loud as exhaust on "sportish" car ripping around the neihborhood. For months this guy would start up his loud car at 7am and no one care when I complained. > Police seem to not give a shit anymore. I've noticed what seems to be total lawlessness going on in my world. Folks stealing shit. People driving absurdly danger…

I wonder how much popular culture has to do with it. For example, when you sincerely listen to rap lyrics, a lot of it (and from the biggest names too) sound like a deranged, narcissistic, and sometimes violent, rants. When people hear that around them from the youngest age, they get the understandsting that such outlook on life is within the accepted norms (or, more likely, the music tells them to don't care about any norms at all, because it's all about the benjamins or whatever), especially when they don't have parents or other authority figures to correct them. Smart people from decent backgrounds can see through this filth or even use it as harmless entertainment - but, for other people, it can instill antisocial behaviour.

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#534
post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are some pretty clear indications that the derivative of civilization is strongly negative at the moment, particularly if you live in Europe. Actually, the fact that people are supposed to pretend things are OK, while everyone over there is possibly a few steps away from being drafted into war, is another sign that things have headed in the wrong direction in exactly the manner OP is suggesting.

“Everyone” in Europe is definitely not a few steps from being drafted into war. This is ridiculous polemics.

Also, what a fun draft that would be. What Western Europe country could realistically support and train a large uptick in reluctant new recruits?

You need a backbone of experienced military professional and infrastructure to do that ( eg : France used to have a lot of military center to host / train people. Those have been abandoned in the late 90s )

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#535
post #7

I think you're way off base. It's called rosy retrospection, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosy_retrospection . As you already mentioned in your comments, you're judging the past disproportionately more positive that the present. If you really want to know if everything is declining, try measure it everyday for the next five years. For example, every day, rate your personal well being, track how (un)happy you are wit…

When faced with a sinusoid, humans seem to extrapolate exponentials in both directions. Take the business cycle, where the good times appear to approach a "new paradigm!" just before a large correction, and the bad times seem like they'll never end.

The business cycle is not a sinusoid. It’s a fractal. It’s chaotic and oddly correlated. Also, sinusoids are exponentials. ;)

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over what period of time? Since 1980 there is a clear and dramatic increase in the the concentration of wealth. The pandemic and related problems may have stalled that trend for a time.

(the pandemic has, in fact, made every metric of income/wealth inequality markedly worse)

The $600 checks and free vaccine delivery were the major progressive policies I was thinking of. But those were definitely temporary.

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#537
post #439
post #7

I think you're way off base. It's called rosy retrospection, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosy_retrospection . As you already mentioned in your comments, you're judging the past disproportionately more positive that the present. If you really want to know if everything is declining, try measure it everyday for the next five years. For example, every day, rate your personal well being, track how (un)happy you are wit…

There is a danger to assigning this term blindly, as it is almost a form of 'rosy ignorance'. We are certainly in an extreme period of societal volatility, and it is absolutely appropriate to examine the causes.

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Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#538

> People are noisy as fuck and dont seem to give a shit. Seems like every night there's someone with loud as exhaust on "sportish" car ripping around the neihborhood. For months this guy would start up his loud car at 7am and no one care when I complained. > Police seem to not give a shit anymore. I've noticed what seems to be total lawlessness going on in my world. Folks stealing shit. People driving absurdly danger…

Ask HN OP:

The harsh and indignant backlash to "things would be nicer if people gave half a fuck how they look in public" is probably the best answer to your question that you're gonna get.

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Respect for other people, general social norms, polite behavior, personal dignity, and in general just a respect for one's appearance and a desire to make "civilization" aesthetically appealing. People seem to enjoy living in beautiful buildings with green parks nearby, without pollution or noise, and yet somehow think dressing like a slob or putting zero effort into one's appearance is unimportant. To be honest, if…

A trip to “Citizens of Walmart” (or whatever it’s called) provides a much more solid argument for dress standards. Pyjamas are pretty crass, but they don’t hold a candle to the vulgar, bizarre, and even pornographic stuff that you’ll see on that website.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_of_Walmart

Re: Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?

#540
post #7

I think you're way off base. It's called rosy retrospection, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosy_retrospection . As you already mentioned in your comments, you're judging the past disproportionately more positive that the present. If you really want to know if everything is declining, try measure it everyday for the next five years. For example, every day, rate your personal well being, track how (un)happy you are wit…

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