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The myth of Japan's failure

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51–60 of 123 posts

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#51
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have a uniquely high level of internal debtors, the government bonds were bought by Japanese people much more so than other citizens buying their countries' bonds. I didn't understand why this made a difference though.

It does make a difference in that Japan could finance the public debt entirely by itself. The country has a trade account surplus, it's not them being indebted to others, but others are indebted to them. That makes it unattractive for speculators to bet against the country. Countries like China or Germany are in a similar position.

They have had a historically high internal savings rate that allowed this. One thing to keep an eye on is their terrible demographics. I believe Japanese citizens as well as the largest institutional buyers (Japan Post etc) have just recently become net sellers of JGBs as they move towards liquidation to fund retirements.

Japan currently funds more than half of their gov't via borrowing, with the demographic shift and the internal demand for JGB turning towards net negative, they will increasingly rely on external buyers of their debt. I believe China has been a buyer of late.

What has worked for Japan historically may not work so well going forward.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#52
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japanese debt is Yen denominated and, if they want, they can extinguish it by printing money. This option is not available to Greece/Italy/Spain/Portugal/Ireland.

There are limits to how much you can print without creating a currency crisis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Examples_of_hype...

You can pursue an economic policy that creates high levels of inflation without necessarily triggering hyperinflation. The goal of course would be to gradually inflate away the value of the debt, not to pay it all back immediately.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#53
post #35

It is easy and popular for westerners to romantacize Japan - but it has serious and structural problems. When analyzed on its own (instead of comparing it to the USA) it becomes readily apparent. I will just say a few observations which show that the picture the article paints is not quite accurate. Firstly, yes there are many people with fancy clothes. What the author does not say is that a lot of those people live…

There's quite a bit of disinformation in your comment. * that people live with their parents is only "shocking" if you happen to come from a country where that is considered taboo. In many countries it's not considered shameful to live with your parents while you're single. It didn't start after the bubble, it started like 1000 years ago. Yeah, there's a downside to it, but then there's also a downside to getting int…

> In many countries it's not considered shameful to live with your parents while you're single.

I can completely understand that you want to live with your parents when you are studing (or a young working adult). But 28years+ is becoming a bit ridiculous. Maybe it is because a lot of people are not getting married anymore. But the point is that many people (and some of my friends) can not afford a really expensive apartment. Tokyo is expensive to live in.

Anyways, the point I wanted to make is the Article's comment about the clothes young people wear - it is quite deceptive to use such a metric.

> * "Japanese health care is a joke" compared to what? Look at life expectancy numbers, doctors per capita, etc.

Life expectancy is higher in Japan partly because of diet (there are not that many overweight people - that is almost the norm in USA and Aus. Even trying to get overweight with the FAtkins diet followed in USA and Australia would be prohibitively expensive in Japan).

The USA's life expectancy is also lower due yo violent crime, excessive deaths due yo traffic accidents, AIDS and other lfestyle diseases).

Yet life expectancy is not the only measure of health care. There are other factors such as quality of life. The simple fact is that dental care in Japan is far behind the west (and I am not talking about the poorest of the poor without proper dental care, but fairly rich upperclass people).

> ATMs are open 24/7 in convenience stores.

That is true, I grant you that. 7-11 ATMs are open, but you will not find your banks ATM open after 19h00 (e.g. JP postbank).

PS: The goal of my post is not for Japan bashing but trying to give an unromanticized balanced view. There are many things wrong with the Japan, just as there are many things wrong with the west.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#54
post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

The unemployment rate in Japan is low, but the (arguably more important) labor force participation rate has been dropping a lot lately: http://i.imgur.com/WJiUx.jpg

Of course, a big explanation for the lower labor force participation rate is the aging population.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#55

It is easy and popular for westerners to romantacize Japan - but it has serious and structural problems. When analyzed on its own (instead of comparing it to the USA) it becomes readily apparent. I will just say a few observations which show that the picture the article paints is not quite accurate. Firstly, yes there are many people with fancy clothes. What the author does not say is that a lot of those people live…

> Firstly, yes there are many people with fancy clothes. What the author does not say is that a lot of those people live with their parents - and their whole income is expendible. I don't know if this phenomeneon started after the bubble economy, but it is quite shocking.

Living in larger family units is actually very efficient. The way we do things here in the U.S. is actually shockingly inefficient. Parents buy big houses in the suburbs when they have kids, and don't down size when the kids leave. So you have an older couple using one floor of an oversized house and the kid maintaining a separate household. Then when the kid has kids, they buy another big house in the suburbs, then pay someone thousands of dollars a month to take care of said kids after school. Meanwhile the grandparents sit around their big house bored and lonely.

There are a lot of weird cultural taboos in the U.S. that create this state of affairs, but the end result is vast inefficiency in resource usage compared to societies where bigger households are the norm.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#56
Words do not exist to explain errors in this article. The world's most populous island improved internet infrastructure? Wow! Life expectancy increased, just like in every other OECD nation? Wow!

The appreciation of the yen is a result of the deflationary pressure that crippled the Japanese economy from 1995-2005.

He links to shadowstats, a known internet cook hangout. It's like linking to a global-warming denial site.

"Japan leapfrogged the United States in the space of a few years in the late 1990s and it has stayed ahead ever since, with consumers moving exceptionally rapidly to ever more advanced devices."

On what planet does the author live? The smartphone was invented here and the US leads the world in smartphone adoption. The Japanese are still texting on 9-keys.

I can't go on.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#57

I have some friends who don't travel internationally and who have totally bought into the propaganda that the USA is better than any other country using any metric. Love of one's own country and mild forms of nationalism are good things, but they should be tempered with a realistic view of the world. In the USA we have a clear and present danger to the economic health of our country: spending too much money on "defen…

I know a lot of people like that where I grew up. My sister jokes that if nothing else the USA is number one in self esteem.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#58
post #49
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wolfram Alpha displays the debt in your local currency (SEK to me). Which currency did it show to you? Look at this video and tell me how that is sustainable: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-quUyId2WZ0#t=0m13s

If I citizen of a country buys that country's bonds then a portion of their interest is collected back as capital gains. Thus the country actually pays (interest rate * (1- capital gains rate) - inflation rate). So because the overwhelming majority of Japan's debt is owned by it's own citizens and it's in it's own currency they can easily drive their loan servicing costs below zero at fairly modest inflation rates. T…

Great arguments! I still don't think that paying 50% of your tax revenues in interest rate is sustainable (especially not when the interest rates are as low as they already are). However, your point about capital gains combined with high level of domestic creditors certainly changes the math.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#59
post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

> people don't have the means to keep themselves healthy.

Isn't that true only for US. Is employment also dysfunctionally tied to health insurance as it is in US?

> What is the end result of growth that makes societies "better"?

It depends who you ask. If you ask owners of large corporations they will look as GDP for a metric of how great a country is going. Doesn't matter if life expectancy is terrible, infant mortality, crime and corruption are high, no middle class, people living in shanty towns as long as GDP is booming the country is considered a success.

If you ask people what is makes a country good, they wouldn't care much about GDP, they would point to healthcare, crime, lack of corruption.

Unfortunately the news and the reports you get in the traditional media don't talk about that. All those analysts,"experts" and economists only care about the metric that large corporation care about. How many time have you seen on the news about "the average rate of depression in Argentina has gone up?". Not much right. But you might hear about how GDP is suffering.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#60
post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

> crime goes up (crime is largely a result of poverty)

While that may be conventional wisdom, crime rates have actually declined in the USA over the past 20 years: http://www.economist.com/node/18775436

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