The myth of Japan's failure
nytimes.com
The myth of Japan's failure
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Re: The myth of Japan's failure
#2One of the most important lessons that we have learned from the past years is that you cannot look at a country's standard of living in isolation. You also have to look at the debt levels to see if it is sustainable in the long run. Japan has the highest government debt-to-gdp ratio in the world: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_pub... (higher than Greece!). I suspect that they have a huge hangover coming their way.
Re: The myth of Japan's failure
#3One of the most important lessons that we have learned from the past years is that you cannot look at a country's standard of living in isolation. You also have to look at the debt levels to see if it is sustainable in the long run. Japan has the highest government debt-to-gdp ratio in the world: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_pub... (higher than Greece!). I suspect that they have a huge han…
They have a uniquely high level of internal debtors, the government bonds were bought by Japanese people much more so than other citizens buying their countries' bonds. I didn't understand why this made a difference though.
Re: The myth of Japan's failure
#4I remember a recent article on the same wavelength, here on HN - but I can't find it.
Anyway, I agree that GDP shouldn't be idolized, just like no single metric should be.
Re: The myth of Japan's failure
#5One of the most important lessons that we have learned from the past years is that you cannot look at a country's standard of living in isolation. You also have to look at the debt levels to see if it is sustainable in the long run. Japan has the highest government debt-to-gdp ratio in the world: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_pub... (higher than Greece!). I suspect that they have a huge han…
They have a uniquely high level of internal debtors, the government bonds were bought by Japanese people much more so than other citizens buying their countries' bonds. I didn't understand why this made a difference though.
Indeed. That helps them postponing the problems but it doesn't make the debt-levels any more sustainable. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-quUyId2WZ0
Re: The myth of Japan's failure
#6Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion):
According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1]
Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2]
Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things", otherwise (as you're seeing in the US) riots/protests break out, crime goes up (crime is largely a result of poverty), and people don't have the means to keep themselves healthy. What more do you need from a society? I understand people will say "but we need growth". I ask why? What is the end result of growth that makes societies "better"?
[1]http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/unemployment-rate [2]http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-r...
edit: 32 years...doh!
Re: The myth of Japan's failure
#7Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…
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Re: The myth of Japan's failure
#8One of the most important lessons that we have learned from the past years is that you cannot look at a country's standard of living in isolation. You also have to look at the debt levels to see if it is sustainable in the long run. Japan has the highest government debt-to-gdp ratio in the world: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_pub... (higher than Greece!). I suspect that they have a huge han…
They have a uniquely high level of internal debtors, the government bonds were bought by Japanese people much more so than other citizens buying their countries' bonds. I didn't understand why this made a difference though.
It does make a difference in that Japan could finance the public debt entirely by itself. The country has a trade account surplus, it's not them being indebted to others, but others are indebted to them.
That makes it unattractive for speculators to bet against the country. Countries like China or Germany are in a similar position.
Re: The myth of Japan's failure
#9I remember a recent article on the same wavelength, here on HN - but I can't find it. Anyway, I agree that GDP shouldn't be idolized, just like no single metric should be.
I do too -- if you find it, leave a comment here please!
Re: The myth of Japan's failure
#10I remember a recent article on the same wavelength, here on HN - but I can't find it. Anyway, I agree that GDP shouldn't be idolized, just like no single metric should be.
I do too -- if you find it, leave a comment here please!
Rather, here it is: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3389678