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The myth of Japan's failure

nytimes.com

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Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#21

Post by mike-cardwell »

DrCatbox wrote: post #15
mbesto wrote: post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

Employment, I ask why? Seriously, full employment is a threat not a promise. Who wants to really work? For what? Mandatory vacations, 6 months per year, 5 hour work day. Then we can have full employment. As said in another comment, growth is required to spend more time with family, leisure and to do things that we really want. Well thats not the case, since no matter how much growth there is and how much an economy i…

With six months vacation per year, people would still complain about having to work too much.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#22

Post by Yrlec »

more_later wrote: post #13
Yrlec wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. That helps them postponing the problems but it doesn't make the debt-levels any more sustainable. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-quUyId2WZ0

Japanese debt is Yen denominated and, if they want, they can extinguish it by printing money. This option is not available to Greece/Italy/Spain/Portugal/Ireland.

There are limits to how much you can print without creating a currency crisis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Examples_of_hype...

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#23

Post by mbesto »

DrCatbox wrote: post #15
mbesto wrote: post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

Employment, I ask why? Seriously, full employment is a threat not a promise. Who wants to really work? For what? Mandatory vacations, 6 months per year, 5 hour work day. Then we can have full employment. As said in another comment, growth is required to spend more time with family, leisure and to do things that we really want. Well thats not the case, since no matter how much growth there is and how much an economy i…

We all have our reasons for working. In some cases I'd much rather be at work than say sit on a beach. I'd get bored after endless days of sitting on a beach right?

I think this conversation could easily go into the "whats the meaning of life" topic, so let's try not to go there. My overall point is more so this, what's so evil/bad about the the so-called lost era in Japan?

growth is required to spend more time with family, leisure and to do things that we really want.

And yet Americans spend more hours at "work" than most other countries. How has our growth shown that?

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#24

Post by Tycho »

heydenberk wrote: post #9
danmaz74 wrote: post #4

I remember a recent article on the same wavelength, here on HN - but I can't find it. Anyway, I agree that GDP shouldn't be idolized, just like no single metric should be.

I do too -- if you find it, leave a comment here please!

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/02/the...

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#25

Post by surrealize »

The overall point of the editorial might be right, but some of the metrics that it mentions are random or problematic. The number of high-rise buildings constructed? That says more about how little buildable land Japan has than it says about the strength of the Japanese economy.

The article also mentions electricity "output" (a.k.a. consumption), which has grown faster in Japan than in the US. The article spins it as an indicator of the strength of the Japanese economy, but you could just as easily describe it as a success story about US conservation efforts.

And some of it is just strange. Michelin ratings as a measure of the strength of an economy? Cultural factors matter as much as economic strength, there.

Japan might actually be doing better than people in the US think, but this article isn't a good argument for that position.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#26

Post by zeteo »

mbesto wrote: post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

> What is the end result of growth that makes societies "better"?

How about the fact that, when we do well, we are a bit more likely to spend that 1% of our resources on new technology, and get stuff that we later take for granted, like flying through the air, curing nasty diseases, and having immense computing power at our fingertips that can reach any nook and cranny of the Earth within milliseconds.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#27

Post by aycangulez »

I have been following Fingleton, the author of this article for quite a while. His main thesis that "Japan's lost decade is an illusion" has not changed much over the years. In fact, he was among the group "Japan bashers" in the 90s, and their main argument was that Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) was intentionally trying to paint a grim image of Japan to gain advantage in trade negotiations. This argument holds little water these days: it is next to impossible to hide information about the true state of a country when access to information is so easy thanks to the Internet.

Fingleton also claims that Japanese are early adopters in technology, which is only partly true. Japanese, in general, prefer to excel in something by using manual skills and they take great pride in that. They resort to technology only when manual skill is not enough. Making good cars require industrial robots so they have plenty of them, but in other parts of the industry, adoption of advanced technology can be quite limited. In other words, Japanese companies often find themselves at local maximums as compared to their American counterparts. Just look at the current state of Japan's once great electronics companies: Sony, Panasonic, Sanyo, NEC, Hitachi, etc. Only Canon seems to be doing fine these days.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#28

Post by bane »

mbesto wrote: post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

It reminds me of my first time visiting South Korea. While there I observed people who's job it was to wear a cute uniform and bow to cars entering the parking garage at the local department store, people hired by companies to stand in the aisles at the local supermarket holding packs of coffee or shampoo or whatever and dance to loud techno music (usually young women in short skirts and thigh high boots, bizarre to see families shopping for vegetables, fighting their way around scantily clad 20 year olds in the middle of a dance routine around the cabbage aisle), and other similar, "keep people busy" type jobs. I'd be highly surprised if these folks made more than $3-4/hr, not even remotely a living wage.

- checking on the numbers, the minimum wage in South Korea for 2011 was about $3.75. I'm guessing when I first went there in 2003, it was even lower.

- in 2006 I visited and remember having to make my way around a gauntlet of guys in doorman uniforms, who's job it was to bow to people entering the hotel, and another guy who's job it was to push the "up" button to request an elevator. That's it, that was his entire job. For eight hours a day, he stood outside of the elevators, waiting for guests, and pushed the only button to request an elevator (there was no down button the hotel I was staying in).

So yes, while the unemployment figures were pretty good, the actual "work" that people were doing was essentially meaningless.

I've never been to Japan, but I'd be highly surprised if there weren't similar analogues.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#29

Post by mark_l_watson »

I have some friends who don't travel internationally and who have totally bought into the propaganda that the USA is better than any other country using any metric.

Love of one's own country and mild forms of nationalism are good things, but they should be tempered with a realistic view of the world. In the USA we have a clear and present danger to the economic health of our country: spending too much money on "defense."

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#30

Post by abracat1 »

It is easy and popular for westerners to romantacize Japan - but it has serious and structural problems. When analyzed on its own (instead of comparing it to the USA) it becomes readily apparent.

I will just say a few observations which show that the picture the article paints is not quite accurate.

Firstly, yes there are many people with fancy clothes. What the author does not say is that a lot of those people live with their parents - and their whole income is expendible. I don't know if this phenomeneon started after the bubble economy, but it is quite shocking.

Then there is the fancy cars - what is the percentage of car ownership?

About employment - finding permanent employment for young people has become almost impossible. Many young people now have short term contracts or do so called "arebeito" (extremely short term work with hourly wage). This is clearly not optimal and is a new in this generation.

Japanese health care is a joke. They spent a lot on the last years of life (everywhere you look is AED machines), but nothing on the quality of life. Japanese dental care is below third world country! The majority of people do not get orthodontal treatment even when clearly necessary. Take a look next time you walk around.

Another example of the quality of health care - I've spoken to two dermatologists (from national health care in Japan) and they don't even know about ruaccutane (isotretonion). This surely is a basic treatment that in some cases are necessary?

Japanese banking is pathetic. It seems they do everything by hand - which is nice but inefficient. With my non-japanese banking I get internet banking for free and ATMs are open 24/7. Good luck getting that in Japan.

Typed on iPhone so sorry for typos.

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