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Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

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Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#381

Post by dsfyu404ed »

bertil wrote: post #348
dsfyu404ed wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A cargo ebike is a game changer for all of this Not so long as a "never in a lifetime on average" crash remains an acceptable justification to spend tens of thousands of dollars it's not. And that's ignoring weather and convenience.

> "never in a lifetime on average" crash That’s a strong argument against SUVs, a type of vehicle that is notoriously dangerous because drivers can’t see children in front of their hood. It also flips over and kills people inside at minor incidents. Cargo bikes don’t have those issues.

>flips over and kills people inside at minor incidents.

>a strong argument against SUVs

This kind of hubris to think you can plan the exact details of the market for a product followed up by cognitive dissonance when it doesn't work out drives me up the wall.

The SUVs back in the day when they were becoming a thing had fine visibility, great even by modern standards. Then you people said they rolled over too much and were too unsafe so they grew wide to be stable and they got thick bodies and doors and strong pillars and high belt-lines to be strong and nobody could see out of them. And then you people backed over your kids. And then we got backup cameras and all sorts of tech. And now you people complain the screens are distracting and un-ergonomic. You see the pattern here?

Just stop trying to tell everyone else what's good for them and then force it on them and we wouldn't have this problem.

Want me to do zoning too? Because it's basically the same story.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#382

Post by micromacrofoot »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #381
bertil wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "never in a lifetime on average" crash That’s a strong argument against SUVs, a type of vehicle that is notoriously dangerous because drivers can’t see children in front of their hood. It also flips over and kills people inside at minor incidents. Cargo bikes don’t have those issues.

>flips over and kills people inside at minor incidents. >a strong argument against SUVs This kind of hubris to think you can plan the exact details of the market for a product followed up by cognitive dissonance when it doesn't work out drives me up the wall. The SUVs back in the day when they were becoming a thing had fine visibility, great even by modern standards. Then you people said they rolled over too much and…

who is “you people” here

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#383

Post by nsonha »

bertil wrote: post #357
nsonha wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> bicycles and trikes like the are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport in your opinion? Better in what way? Does everyone think like you? Between your and their assumption, I personally think theirs sounds more realistic, they just assume the norm continues to be the norm.

Thank you so much for your helpful contribution to a debate about how the world is changing its transport infrastructure.

Not as helpful as wishful thinking and being unrealistic, so, thank you.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#384

Post by AtlasBarfed »

imachine1980_ wrote: post #23
snarfy wrote: post #8

Sodium ion batteries work just as well and should be arriving this year [1]. [1] - https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinas-top-ev-battery-mak...

Sodium ion batteries are less dense than lithium have a third of the range, I'm live in argentine and see the destruction of open mining for rare metals for cents, make me wish this happens, but for now dense electric cars of not low range will probably use lithium and smartphones and notebook probably will continue to use lithium for long time, maybe be replaced by graphen but in the long game.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/10/catl-will-mass-produce...

In mass production this year in China will be 160 wh/kg Sodium Ion and the company claims it can be 90-95% density cell-to-pack because sodium ion is like LFP: doesn't require as much safety stuff as the nickel-cobalt chemistries (which reduces pack density to only 60-70% of the cell density).

That's (based on current reputed pack densities of Tesla Model 3 SRs) good enough for the 300 mile consumer BEV. As in, the city car for a huge percentage of the world population.

I believe the roadmap is to get sodium ion to 200 wh/kg in a couple years, with good CTP yield means 400 mile cars like Model S. NO LITHIUM. NO NICKEL. NO COBALT.

Sodium Sulfur will probably happen in another 10 years based on papers. That may offer 400-500 wh/kg IIRC.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#385

Post by AtlasBarfed »

DLwdTxdU6smHQA wrote: post #89
imachine1980_ wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sodium ion batteries are less dense than lithium have a third of the range, I'm live in argentine and see the destruction of open mining for rare metals for cents, make me wish this happens, but for now dense electric cars of not low range will probably use lithium and smartphones and notebook probably will continue to use lithium for long time, maybe be replaced by graphen but in the long game.

> Sodium ion batteries are less dense than lithium have a third of the range Got a source for the "one third" part? According to [1] and [2] lithium ion is up to 265 Wh/kg and sodium ion has 160 Wh/kg. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery [2] https://cleantechnica.com/2021/07/30/catl-reveals-sodium-ion... edited for clarity

And keep in mind the Nickel-Cobalt Lithium ion chemistries are responsible for the "battery fire" Tesla stories.

So the Nickel-Cobalt batteries require a lot of cooling and safety systems. So this reduces the PACK level density to 60-70% from the lofty cell densities. So 240 wh/kg nickel cobalt chems drop to 160-180 at pack level.

LFP and Sodium Ion do not have such issues. They are inherently safer, so the Pack densities are potentially 90-95% of cell density with good design.

And to emphasize, CATL is putting into PRODUCTION in 2023 160 wh/kg sodium ion.

The other trick is to mix lithium and sodium ion cells in the same pack. So you do half at 160 wh/kg sodium, and half at 210 wh/kg LFP (LFP is hitting that in 2023 as well), then you get 185 wh/kg effectively.

IMO this Sodium Ion announcement marks when/where the barrier to electrifying 80-90% of consumer transportation AND allow India and China to get their own cars. It should just be a factory scaling issue now.

IMO this means the BEV drivetrain will be fundamentally cheaper than the ICE drivetrain by 30% in possibly 2-3 years. ICE cars will simply not be price competitive. The BEV will accelerate better, smoother, more reliable, be cheaper in maintenance, more torque/towing ability, AND it will be cheaper when you buy a new car.

That's for a 300 mile fast-charge electric car, with roadmaps to 400 mile with 200 wh/kg sodium ion.

Again, if sodium sulfur hits 2x to that (the research papers say 3-4x) in 5-10 years, that means the number of cells and cost to make the car and vehicle weight all drop that much more. You'll have 500-600 mile range cars that possibly cost half of what an ICE drivetrain would.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#386

Post by matsemann »

Tade0 wrote: post #359
matsemann wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But could you imagine a future where you didn't need to bother with all that logistics? What if school, soccer practice and work were all in walkable or bikeable distance, for instance? I'm not advocating people to be forced to sell their cars, I'm advocating for moving towards a society not based around everyone having to drive everywhere.

> What if school, soccer practice and work were all in walkable or bikeable distance, for instance? They are for me now and actually always have been. I walk my child to daycare 1300 meters every weekday because I live in a somewhat walkable European city. I also work remotely but if I didn't I would probably commute by tram, because my stop is less than 250m away. Shopping is done via one of those delivery services…

My original post was promoting car sharing services. Your usecase could be perfect for that, if they were reliable and always available, right?

At least it works fine for me. Whenever I need a car, I rent one parked outside. Instead of the street block being full of unused cars taking up the space, we now only have a few designated spots for these share cars, and some short term parking for visitors.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#387

Post by daniel1969 »

There might be enough lithium for EVs, but lithium is needed not only for EV batteries. Overall, there is no enough lithium to phase out fossil fuels. Not even for the first generation of technology devices. Here is the presentation given by prof. Simon Michaux where the problem is explained in more detail and supported with data:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBVmnKuBocc

Lithium is not the only problem, other minerals are too. And, just like the original article says - the pace of extraction.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#389

Post by adrianN »

TheCapeGreek wrote: post #360
bertil wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "never in a lifetime on average" crash That’s a strong argument against SUVs, a type of vehicle that is notoriously dangerous because drivers can’t see children in front of their hood. It also flips over and kills people inside at minor incidents. Cargo bikes don’t have those issues.

It's an arms race - cargo bikes might not have those issues, but for one of those types of crashes I'd sure rather not be on a bike.

That's why I only leave the house to step into my Marauder: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDoRmT0iRic I think every other vehicle should be banned.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#390

Post by adrianN »

moonchrome wrote: post #373
bertil wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The unsafe part of an e-bike is the cars running people over. I agree with you: we should get rid of that part.

That's not true at all - driving on two wheels is inherently more dangerous, increasingly so the faster you go. Not to mention that the older/less fit you get the harder it is to react to these situations (tire slipping, hitting holes, stuff hitting you in the face, pedestrians jumping in front of you) I've said this before - if I put a child seat on a motorcycle I would get social services called instantly. Puting i…

E-bikes have a top speed where crashes are rarely dangerous unless they involve a car.
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