Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

111–120 of 281 posts

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#111

Post by SantalBlush »

boh wrote: post #99
jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

Most recessions are identified after they've occurred, particularly on a global scale, since the evidence is rarely obvious. Not all countries, industries, states will be affected equally. It's completely possible the recession has already occurred and we're currently in the midst of it.

While this is true, the statement "We don't know that we're not in a recession" is not evidence that we're in a recession. Looking at the evidence that we do currently have--GDP, unemployment, etc.--that evidence strongly suggests that we are not in one.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#112

Post by ianai »

Zaskoda wrote: post #93
samwillis wrote: post #47

Disclaimer, I have no idea if this is even slightly logical, I'm not an economist. House prices have increased significantly above inflation for decades to the point of absurdity, many multiples of a households income. People in their 20s (and 30s) increasingly don't believe they will ever own a home. If we have a period of inflation, with increased wages (obviously with a painful lag), but house prices remain stagna…

> If we have a period of inflation, with increased wages (obviously with a painful lag), but house prices remain stagnant with no increase This would require heavy regulation of the housing market. For example, we could add a hefty tax on any home that isn't owner-occupied. Otherwise, housing will remain one of the better places to invest earnings and the cost of housing will continue to rise with earnings. However,…

No, that tax would disincentivize renting single family homes and similar. Corporate landlords wouldn't be taxed with it and are the meat of that market.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#113

Post by JKCalhoun »

alehlopeh wrote: post #36
paulpauper wrote: post #3

Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.

The media didn’t write this headline, or any headline for that matter, because the media is not a singular entity. A person wrote this headline for a publication.

I confess, when someone uses the term the media it comes across as a red flag to me that the author might have an ax to grind so to speak.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#114

Post by switchbak »

JDEW wrote: post #72
shyn3 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

This is probably a comment worth ignoring, but I still feel inclined to say that journalism is a cornerstone of democracy on which, love it or hate it, we in the west have chosen to build our societies on. So yes, it is important and certainly requires skill.

Journalism is important. Critically important. Which is why the powerful spend so much money to ensure that they're saying the right things about the right people. And being silent on the issues they shouldn't be discussing.

Heavily funded corporate media has been this way forever. What's more important is small scale independent media, which may actually have a chance of getting out a message which even minimally approximates the truth. Or at least challenges prevailing power centers.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#115

Post by ddp26 »

jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

Obligatory: predictions with (good) track records! https://www.metaculus.com/project/2018/

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#116

Post by oliwarner »

jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

Major economies are already in deepening recessions. Major producers are starting the year with significant impairment from COVID and supply line pressures. The threat of Russia's aggression affecting other countries remains. Energy prices are still obscene in Europe.

I hope things get better, but I think you'd be mad to plan for global growth this year.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#117

Post by JKCalhoun »

BirAdam wrote: post #55
paulpauper wrote: post #3

Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.

Yes. And it’s actually correct. I’ve thought that US financial system and US dollar would fall since I was roughly 13. The problem is that at some point central banks and governments will be unable to avoid hyperinflation due to debt accumulation. They will be forced to print. Additionally, the debt is inevitable when politicians are bought and paid for and therefore incentivized to provide lucrative contracts to don…

> future generations for the sake of the current, and this is being felt right now as younger are struggling to get started, and the the older generations are living in relative luxury.

I don't disagree with your overall point about sacrificing future generations for the current, but this specific point is probably true regardless as luxury often takes time to acquire.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#119

Post by wldcordeiro »

jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

I always assume the author or publication stands to gain from being right and is attempting to influence things for their preferred outcome.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#120

Post by phkahler »

midasuni wrote: post #94
samwillis wrote: post #47

Disclaimer, I have no idea if this is even slightly logical, I'm not an economist. House prices have increased significantly above inflation for decades to the point of absurdity, many multiples of a households income. People in their 20s (and 30s) increasingly don't believe they will ever own a home. If we have a period of inflation, with increased wages (obviously with a painful lag), but house prices remain stagna…

As household wages have increased (especially with increasingly two full time professional incomes now, which was very rare 30 years ago) and internet rates have been low, the monthly cost of housing hasn’t changed as a percentage of take home py, it’s just you need two full time incomes to do it. This is the fundamental problem though, because there is a shortage of housing, as wages increases, housing costs (either…

>> the monthly cost of housing hasn’t changed as a percentage of take home pay,

That is by design. Banks figure your monthly payment as a percent of income. Then based on interest rates they figure out how much you can borrow. Then everyone - the sellers, the agents, even the bank - push you to borrow the max allowed and spend it. This is why lower interest rate cause higher house prices.

Interest rates are going up. Home prices have slowed. Speculation is over. Still waiting for the drop. The economy seems to have gotten really good at moving ahead in spite of pressure to slow. I fear there may be built up negative pressure that's about to give. Not sure though.

Post reply on HN