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Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

economist.com

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Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#41

Post by ianai »

cosmojg wrote: post #31
ianai wrote: post #7

Remains to be seen how Powell and the current Fed perceive their joint mandate of low inflation/low unemployment. By indicators, the labor market is still resembling hermit crabs leaving shells empty anytime a shell gets filled with a crab. But I thought the market was overweighted in 2017/2018 and the Fed wouldn't raise rates until 2022. As the economist stated here or elsewhere in this group of articles, the effect…

> They bought actual stocks during the Pandemic-a sure high point of departure from the past. Is this true? I'm pretty sure the wildest thing they did was purchase corporate bonds via ETFs.

Buybacks were rampant through this era.

Difference without a distinction.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#43

Post by rwoerz »

paulpauper wrote: post #3

Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.

Alarmists and pessimists always win either way: If the prediction comes true, they were right and if not everyone is happy and has no reason to blame the alarmists.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#44

Post by simonh »

koboll wrote: post #8

If it was truly 'inevitable' it would be priced in

Firstly pricing it in doesn't to stop it happening. Even if it did, nobody knows which stocks, commodities, etc will be impacted by how much when. Then again assuming The Economist is correct not everyone necessarily believes this and so won’t factor it into their behaviour.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#45

Post by brookst »

hunglee2 wrote: post #2

'inevitable' yet precedes to list examples in geopolitics, economy and energy which are all the result of choices made by human beings. Let us not use language which describes economic recessions as force majeure - they are the result of human acts, human decisions, perhaps more strategic and pre-planned than comprised publishers like the Economist would have us believe

I am pretty sure they are using inevitable to mean “given where we are today” and not “could never have been avoided by different past choices going back to the Big Bang”.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#46

Post by rafale »

jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

You know how journalists, for the sake of transparency, disclose holdings or interests when they cover a subject. There should be the reverse of that where they make a bet to show conviction in their beliefs. It would be a funny game. Most of them will bet $0.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#47

Post by samwillis »

Disclaimer, I have no idea if this is even slightly logical, I'm not an economist.

House prices have increased significantly above inflation for decades to the point of absurdity, many multiples of a households income. People in their 20s (and 30s) increasingly don't believe they will ever own a home.

If we have a period of inflation, with increased wages (obviously with a painful lag), but house prices remain stagnant with no increase, would that bring them down in real terms without a "housing crash"? Could this be a "good thing" and does that even make sense?

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#48

Post by [deleted] »

cj wrote: post #26

Stupid question: Are recessions a healthy part of a normal economic ebb and flow? (Over the long-term) I suppose an extremely long recession/depression (e.g. 5-10 years) would obviously be bad. But are recessions that last 1-2 years really something to panic over at a macro level? My (less than informed) assumption is high growth followed by a slight contraction/recession isn’t objectively bad if it helps an economy…

[deleted]

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#49

Post by jonahx »

cj wrote: post #26

Stupid question: Are recessions a healthy part of a normal economic ebb and flow? (Over the long-term) I suppose an extremely long recession/depression (e.g. 5-10 years) would obviously be bad. But are recessions that last 1-2 years really something to panic over at a macro level? My (less than informed) assumption is high growth followed by a slight contraction/recession isn’t objectively bad if it helps an economy…

> Are recessions a healthy part of a normal economic ebb and flow? (Over the long-term)

Ray Dalio discusses this in his video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0&t=483s

And basically the answer he gives is "yes".

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#50

Post by diogenescynic »

jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

I agree. Whenever the public/media assume something is definitely going to happen it seems like it always backfires. Another anecdote, I remember in 2020 there were all these articles with predictions about how 2021 would be the year of fintech... then all the fintech stocks imploded. It really does seem like following the herd is not the way to go.
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