Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
economist.com
Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
1–10 of 281 posts
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#2'inevitable' yet precedes to list examples in geopolitics, economy and energy which are all the result of choices made by human beings. Let us not use language which describes economic recessions as force majeure - they are the result of human acts, human decisions, perhaps more strategic and pre-planned than comprised publishers like the Economist would have us believe
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#3Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#4'inevitable' yet precedes to list examples in geopolitics, economy and energy which are all the result of choices made by human beings. Let us not use language which describes economic recessions as force majeure - they are the result of human acts, human decisions, perhaps more strategic and pre-planned than comprised publishers like the Economist would have us believe
> comprised publishers like the Economist
I was under the impression that the economist was one of the last remaining high quality print magazines in existence.
Curious what makes you think they’re compromised? (And if you’re aware of any similar publications that aren’t compromised?)
Edit: just noticed the quote says “comprised” rather than compromised. Disregard this comment if that wasn’t a typo
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#5'inevitable' yet precedes to list examples in geopolitics, economy and energy which are all the result of choices made by human beings. Let us not use language which describes economic recessions as force majeure - they are the result of human acts, human decisions, perhaps more strategic and pre-planned than comprised publishers like the Economist would have us believe
This is extremely nitpicking. Obviously human factors cause recessions, have you noticed that economics is entirely about human affairs? The Economist doesn't need to state this explicitly.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#6Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#7Remains to be seen how Powell and the current Fed perceive their joint mandate of low inflation/low unemployment. By indicators, the labor market is still resembling hermit crabs leaving shells empty anytime a shell gets filled with a crab. But I thought the market was overweighted in 2017/2018 and the Fed wouldn't raise rates until 2022.
As the economist stated here or elsewhere in this group of articles, the effects of raised rates take a year to take effect. It’s also economic dogma that the labor market reaches equilibrium after all the other markets.
Me, I’d raise rates no higher than 5.5% for a quarter or two. There’s every reason to not jerk so hard on the economy that the economy reacts wildly. I hope they're not seeking additional runway for a future regime of lowering rates. The time for that is a time that looks like 2017-2019-not a time compounded by fall out from pandemic, war, threats of war, and increased uncertainty. Ceteris paribus.
A wild reaction at this point looks like more people leaving the labor market than entering, I suspect.
Edit-economics in general may point to a recession. But this particular Fed has yet to convince me that they’re about their joint mandate of low unemployment and low inflation. They bought actual stocks (correction:bonds) during the Pandemic-a sure high point of departure from the past.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#8If it was truly 'inevitable' it would be priced in
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#9Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.
If they keep calling it every year they'll eventually be right.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#10Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.
It's not just the media, but a lot of very heavy value investors, like Jeremy Grantham, believe that it has been inevitable the entire time. They maintain that we are in a bubble of sorts and that it must correct eventually.