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Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

economist.com

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Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#31

Post by cosmojg »

ianai wrote: post #7

Remains to be seen how Powell and the current Fed perceive their joint mandate of low inflation/low unemployment. By indicators, the labor market is still resembling hermit crabs leaving shells empty anytime a shell gets filled with a crab. But I thought the market was overweighted in 2017/2018 and the Fed wouldn't raise rates until 2022. As the economist stated here or elsewhere in this group of articles, the effect…

> They bought actual stocks during the Pandemic-a sure high point of departure from the past.

Is this true? I'm pretty sure the wildest thing they did was purchase corporate bonds via ETFs.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#32

Post by d0mine »

jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

It depends on the definition "global recession" Who says it is not already here?

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#34

Post by shyn3 »

jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

[flagged]

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#35

Post by frankfrankfrank »

netman21 wrote: post #19

Signs I look for of an impending recession: Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy. Unemployment. I see help wanted signs everywhere Huge building projects abandoned. Here in SE Michigan I am seeing active construction sites everywhere. The Economist runs headlines like "Are Recessions a Thing of the Past?

I think you should reconsider the position that inflation is a sign of a booming economy. It is an erroneous albeit common perception and perspective. Inflation, the fraud of increasing the number of IOU Currency tokens called {fill in your currency of choice} in circulation simply by copying them is the cause of increasing prices, not inflation itself. It’s a matter of misunderstood definition.

An analogy is an artist that puts out a limited edition print, lets say 100, and then realizes that he can make more money if he just prints 2 of each numbered edition, so there are two 1/100. That is inflation and the means of its fraud is the government “printing” more money, and thereby defrauding the people who have the currency based on the prior value.

It’s just common fraud on a ruling class scale with no one to hold the psychopathic common con artists ant the top accountable.

The Fed (among others) are just people scheming to commit fraud against the people who produce the value. Usually they just keep the fraud at a level that skims a certain low percentage that they get away with and no one notices when everyone is fat and happy, but they always get greedy and desperate when the Ponzi scheme they are running starts tipping over.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#36

Post by alehlopeh »

paulpauper wrote: post #3

Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.

The media didn’t write this headline, or any headline for that matter, because the media is not a singular entity. A person wrote this headline for a publication.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#37

Post by jagged-chisel »

jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

Seems like, so often, recessions are self-fulfilling prophecies. Unless it’s some journalist clanging their own bell.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#38

Post by brookst »

cm2187 wrote: post #24

The economist is blaming it all on Ukraine but the reality is that rate increases will likely be the primary driver for the recession, at least in the US. And those rates hikes (and roll off of the Fed B/S) are a response to inflation. And as much as the economist or Biden would like to pin inflation on Putin, the reality is that the inflation started a year earlier than the Ukraine war, and is the result of money pr…

I knows that’s a theory, but I haven’t see any more evidence that inflation is due to monetary policy than I have that it is due to Ukraine. Lots of philosophical arguments that it must be, but no evidence. Correlation, causation, all of that.

Have you seen evidence of causality that goes beyond theory?

(I’m not necessarily disagreeing, just saying it often seems like a faith-based view)

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#39

Post by dingusdew »

senda wrote: post #23
netman21 wrote: post #19

Signs I look for of an impending recession: Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy. Unemployment. I see help wanted signs everywhere Huge building projects abandoned. Here in SE Michigan I am seeing active construction sites everywhere. The Economist runs headlines like "Are Recessions a Thing of the Past?

I have the same thoughts. However I would say, why are there so many endless help wanted signs? Probably because the jobs don't provide enough income to be sustainable. I think the system currently is wabbling as employers are failing to keep rate with inflation in regards to pay. This will cause a bottleneck in regards to growth/performance for many businesses and ultimately be their downfall.

This is absolutely the case. Federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour. There is literally not anywhere in the country where you can pay for a studio apartment at that pay. Better hope you can scrape together five roommates in a three bedroom.

People have figured out that the cost of going to low-wage jobs like that is more than it is worth. The number of parents who realized they actually brought more money home by one parent quitting their job and taking care of the kids instead of paying for childcare while they work is high.

A lot of folks, after COVID, and seeing that business owners literally didn't give one fuck if they died on the job or not, decided that maybe living their life was more important than grinding at a job that will happily send you to your death to make a buck.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#40

Post by snapcaster »

jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

+1 for mentioning the greatest casting duo of all time. Sad they moved on, hard for me to even guess how many hours i've spent with them on in background or foreground
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