71–80 of 281 posts
Why are global symptoms of capitalism (recessions, financializations, slow motion crashes aka inflation) subjects of speculation but the cause - capitalism itself - not?
When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.
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If it was truly 'inevitable' it would be priced in
Signs I look for of an impending recession: Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy. Unemployment. I see help wanted signs everywhere Huge building projects abandoned. Here in SE Michigan I am seeing active construction sites everywhere. The Economist runs headlines like "Are Recessions a Thing of the Past?
>Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy
That's not borne out by the data. If you look at the graph for inflation[1], you see that falling inflation comes after recessions (helpfully shaded grey), not before. In other words, by the time you see stagflation, you're already deep in recession, or it has already passed. Therefore using it as a sign for "impending" recession makes no sense.
Remains to be seen how Powell and the current Fed perceive their joint mandate of low inflation/low unemployment. By indicators, the labor market is still resembling hermit crabs leaving shells empty anytime a shell gets filled with a crab. But I thought the market was overweighted in 2017/2018 and the Fed wouldn't raise rates until 2022. As the economist stated here or elsewhere in this group of articles, the effect…
Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.
Yes. And it’s actually correct. I’ve thought that US financial system and US dollar would fall since I was roughly 13. The problem is that at some point central banks and governments will be unable to avoid hyperinflation due to debt accumulation. They will be forced to print. Additionally, the debt is inevitable when politicians are bought and paid for and therefore incentivized to provide lucrative contracts to don…
From an adequate distance, fraction reserve banking looks a whole lot like a ponzi scheme.
Disclaimer, I have no idea if this is even slightly logical, I'm not an economist. House prices have increased significantly above inflation for decades to the point of absurdity, many multiples of a households income. People in their 20s (and 30s) increasingly don't believe they will ever own a home. If we have a period of inflation, with increased wages (obviously with a painful lag), but house prices remain stagna…
>If we have a period of inflation, with increased wages (obviously with a painful lag), but house prices remain stagnant with no increase, would that bring them down in real terms without a "housing crash"? Could this be a "good thing" and does that even make sense? It's still only part of the equation since interest rates are much higher now so mortgage payments are double what they were a year ago. So even if the h…
It doesnt feel like the planet is currently reaching for a peace and cooperation dividend and 2023 will still be working out the impact of the covid and ukraine war shocks
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes. And it’s actually correct. I’ve thought that US financial system and US dollar would fall since I was roughly 13. The problem is that at some point central banks and governments will be unable to avoid hyperinflation due to debt accumulation. They will be forced to print. Additionally, the debt is inevitable when politicians are bought and paid for and therefore incentivized to provide lucrative contracts to don…
> On another note, there is inherent instability in debt-based economics From an adequate distance, fraction reserve banking looks a whole lot like a ponzi scheme.