I find myself confused about the purpose of stock markets. How can we arrange our society around a system that is so massively irrational? A few years ago Tesla was worth as much as the rest of the car industry put together . Even if you believed Tesla was going to become a perfect monopoly, its valuation still would not have been justified. Now people are acting like the sky is falling when this pipsqueak manufactur…
The bull case isn't "Tesla becomes a monopoly in automobiles." The bull case is "Tesla becomes a car monopoly, monopolizes self driving, creates a great semi truck, has solar panels on half of the buildings in the US, and supplies battery technology to every clean energy producer globally."
Now, does that justify the valuation? Probably not. But it certainly raises the ceiling on Tesla's valuation. I don't think it's an apples to apples comparison between Tesla and other auto manufacturers.
The discount on Twitter stock is related to the likelihood of a deal closing, compared to the market's perceived value of Twitter stock were the deal to fall through. If you think there is a less than 100% chance of the deal closing, the only sensible thing to do would be to price that in.