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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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701–710 of 816 posts

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#701
post #453

- USB 4, Series D will be defined, with 3 possible orientations, one each for display, power and data transfer - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on guard. - Google will cancel the Search product, with a press release that expounds beautifully about the future. They cl…

crust: https://github.com/NishanthSpShetty/crust https://github.com/uwplse/crust https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-13-5953-8_...

I'll add to the roster:

https://gitlab.com/ktlthebestgroup/crust

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#702
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not true, unfortunately. Early internet: As long as there was copper, you generally could exchange {protocol} (i.e. HTTP, FTP, POP3, ...) to {person} in {country}, quite freely. Current internet: Many egress and ingress connections are banned by {government agency} of {country}. Future internet: What parent comment was predicting: An increasing number of governments increasingly aggressively ban an increasing number…

> It's really not that hard to imagine, look at China or Russia or many other countries (e.g. Middle-East). Very aggresive white/blacklists of internet services. Part of the problem is people thinking that such countries are creating the fragmentation whereas it were the US companies who literally partitioned internet through algorithms, walled gardens, filters and blacklists. A national firewall can be circumvented…

And honestly, this is why I'm ok with big tech getting highly regulated.

In many ways they're _ALREADY_ more powerful than state actors. They were pretty open about their attempts at manipulating the last presidential election, and I personally think it was a gigantic mistake for them. It's only going to get worse imo.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#703

Bold and seemingly contradictory predictions by me: -The rapid advances in AI slow down. Dalle and GPTchat will be an exception not a rule in the long run. The fraction of hard AI problems that can be solved with raw force of more parameters and training isn't that large. -Paradoxically, AI will change everything. The advances that are already here haven't caught on yet. Legal documents in particular occupy this swee…

I have a friend who has been in china since before covid hit, teaching english to kids.

He just told me today that China has lifted all restrictions surrounding covid and are letting it run its course. As a result, he and his gf have both gotten covid for the first time.

When it first hit they had tanks driving up and down their streets making sure people stayed in their houses, so it's definitely a shift for them.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#704
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I'm not sure of your motivation either, but we all have our biases; those are powerful predictions, and it's a shame you've been hit with such a downvote attack.

I intentionally made predictions that could be verified after a year but would also be minority views on this site, since repeating where I agree with the majority does not add to the debate. Sure, they won't all happen, but say, a 50% chance of happening or better, and made a sufficient number of them that I expect a lot of interesting predictions will take place. With the Turkey/Syria meeting, Erdogan has already been asking for it, and at some point Assad will give in. US troops there are surrounded and having trouble resupplying. For the mutual aid treaty, this is based on some under the radar meetings already taking place. That Ukraine lost 100K was inadvertently leaked by Ursula but really everyone paying attention knew -- for example they announced they needed to do a new mobilization of 100K to replace lost men. 100K is most likely a sever under-estimate. Presence of Polish, Georgian, and other troops in Ukraine is already well known, but they haven't been focused on in the West yet. The arrivals of 1000 dead bodies to Poland is forcing the issue into public debate. Other documents have also been leaked.

But this just goes to show how strong Narrative enforcement is in the west. Downvoting is nothing, you have people denied banking services, getting fired, put on no-fly lists, fined, and in Europe even imprisoned for speech -- for questioning NATO narratives. So HN downvotes is not important, it just reveals the various narrative enforcement mechanisms at work even here, but with a lot less at stake.

If this was a Chinese message board or Russian message board, I could make opposite predictions and be met with much more interesting debate and intellectual curiosity, as their information control mechanisms aren't nearly as sophisticated, and as a society they tend to be much more pragmatic and intellectually curious. The West is unique in being so ideological in the present moment - basically it is going through something similar to the cultural revolution period in China, and of course that was not a time to go against official narratives.

But in any case -- just wait a year. I'll be happy to compare my predictions in Dec 2023 against others'. It would be funny -- and quite appropriate -- if the some of the most interesting and accurate predictions of the last year were flagged on this site. But that's up to HN management, and they most likely have limited capacity to stand up to information warfare policies in the west and the hordes of professionals with hurt feelings flagging everything they disagree with. I don't take it personally at all, it's just a sign of the times.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#705
post #562
post #335

1. We will learn that one or more traditional banks have taken on cryptocurrency exposure and will need to be bailed out to prevent another financial crisis. 2. Politicians will introduce legislation to regulate AI, with the initial focus on copyright protection, but it will be defeated. Court cases are brought against companies for training ML using copyrighted data, setting up an eventual supreme court battle in co…

> Year of Linux desktop! After buying a chromebook a month ago I am completely convinced this came a few years ago and no one paid any attention as it wasn't the vision they had of the Linux desktop. I was blown away by how nice ChromeOS is to use, how seamless everything is, and how well Crostini (I think it's called this) works at running Linux programs. ChromeOS is honestly the single best Linux experience I have…

ChromeOS counts the same way that MacOS being popular means that "Year of BSD desktop" has already happened.

Technically true, but not what is meant by that term.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#706
post #90

- Russian-Ukraine war loses its momentum on the eastern front, hot war continues. - Azerbaijan is launching full-scale invasion to Nagorno-Karabakh, taking it over in a Blitzkrieg with the support of Turkey. - Russia is forcing Armenia to join Russian Union State, massive protests in Yerevan. - Pro-Russian government is replacing Belorus president who is forced to resign, massibe protests in Minsk. - China is prepari…

Calm down Satan.

I gotta tell you, that comment has me laughing.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#707
post #125
post #19

- We'll see a new social network born. My guess is that it will try to carve out a segment from Twitter and Tiktok due to the recent changes from Musk and U.S. government concerns, respectively. - People will start realizing Vue is just AngularJS all over again and will further converge towards React. There is already many signs of this in Vue3. - Cryptocurrency regulation will be an ongoing discussion, and nothing w…

“We will see more millennials quit the 9-5 to pursue some kind of passion. My guess is most will try to be an influencer.” But where do influencers get their money? Endorsements aka advertisements and straight from subscribers. We may already be seeing a contraction of the advertisers from online streaming so this probably has shorter legs than required to impact the 9-5 hegemony. Otherwise people who left the labor…

I'm not a fan of the whole "the market will deal with it" thing. Here's my analogy (I was talking about this as far back as the late 90's).

1. Assume global warming is happening.

2. Assume that global warming is going to start causing problems for humans.

Humans will start using technology to deal with these problems. And they'll be successful. This is going to have the harmful effect of making global warming worse before humans truly start trying to solve the root issue (because they can continue to live without being affected by it).

There are two lines here. Passing the first line starts affecting humans, and passing the second line ends in catastrophe (humans can no longer exist on earth).

In a well functioning system, as we pass the first line, humans will start taking notice and we will _naturally_ start trying to avoid the second line. The space between these two lines is our buffer.

As we use technology to keep the warming from affecting us, we will push the first line back while avoiding any true behavior changes that would ultimately keep us from the second line. This decreases our buffer and increases the danger. At some point the technology will either fail or completely remove the second line (one can imagine building a bubble around the earth ala space balls so we can very explicitly regulate the environment).

To use technology in this manner is to invite catastrophe and to gamble that technology will never fail us. It may, or it may not.

---

This is how I feel about "the market". In theory, the market should naturally push towards an equilibrium and correct so as to avoid true disaster. Humans are involved, technology is involved, causing the market to be unnatural and affected by forces outside of that market. In the case of markets, catastrophe isn't the extinction of all human life, but it IS untold horrors. People are currently using technology to force the market to be what they want. This will break at some point.

This is why the market needs to be regulated, to control how much of an effect both humans and technology have on it. Not because the market will never self-correct, but because of the untold pain when it does.

And I understand the argument against it, this is not about controlling the market, it's about _PROTECTING_ the market from undue influence by those with more power than others. The alternative to too much regulation isn't "no regulation", it's "less regulation". Of course, you also have the classic problem of "who watches the watchers" and there's no good answer for solving THAT problem, but I don't think the right answer is "fuck it, just let it play out".

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#708
post #697

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. Peak influencer moment was the billionaire status of folks like Kanye, Kardashians, Kylie Jenner, etc. If anything is to be seen from the past year, it's that they're just as vulnerable to the machinations of the mainstream as any one. Moreover, most of their wealth is pure paper - not even publicly traded. With a sure trimming of private valuations, they will definitely be hurt (although their lifestyle…

I should have been more specific. When I said influencers, I was referring to YouTubers, Tiktokers, etc...

I think their point is that influencers have always existed, it's the underlying model that has changed.

And I tend to agree. People bought into Logan Pauls scam because they trusted him, the same way that people will buy a product because they trust the spokesperson.

I'm a huge Kate Mulgrew fan even as I don't think Janeway was a great captain. I remember coming across "The Principle" on Amazon, seeing her on it, and purchasing it. I didn't get very far into it before I stopped it and went googling and it turns out she was tricked and didn't fully realize what she was narrating. I think she sued them, but I could be wrong.

You can argue that the scale is different, and you may be right, but I do think the other poster is correct that they've existed for a very long time and many people use them as a proxy for trust when making decisions.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#709
post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Year of Linux desktop! After buying a chromebook a month ago I am completely convinced this came a few years ago and no one paid any attention as it wasn't the vision they had of the Linux desktop. I was blown away by how nice ChromeOS is to use, how seamless everything is, and how well Crostini (I think it's called this) works at running Linux programs. ChromeOS is honestly the single best Linux experience I have…

ChromeOS counts the same way that MacOS being popular means that "Year of BSD desktop" has already happened. Technically true, but not what is meant by that term.

Given that Linux mode is a directly supported feature of ChromeOS, I think it gets a little bit murky. A consumer grade device with Debian Buster/10 I can just run Emacs on? True it's not the Ubuntu+Gnome running natively future we wanted in our desktop domination (though Dell and System76 and Framework will sell you one of those these days), but Chromebooks aren't this totally locked down bastardized single-app technicall Linux device with that feature. Chromebooks also now run Android apps too.

https://support.google.com/chromebook/answer/9145439?hl=en

Eg Instructions on how to run Firefox on ChromeOS with Linux mode

https://support.mozilla.org/en-US/kb/run-firefox-chromeos

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#710

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's really not that hard to imagine, look at China or Russia or many other countries (e.g. Middle-East). Very aggresive white/blacklists of internet services. Part of the problem is people thinking that such countries are creating the fragmentation whereas it were the US companies who literally partitioned internet through algorithms, walled gardens, filters and blacklists. A national firewall can be circumvented…

And honestly, this is why I'm ok with big tech getting highly regulated. In many ways they're _ALREADY_ more powerful than state actors. They were pretty open about their attempts at manipulating the last presidential election, and I personally think it was a gigantic mistake for them. It's only going to get worse imo.

> I personally think it was a gigantic mistake for them

It went well for them as long as they were on the winning side. Only after their side lost or they changed sides things started going downhill.

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