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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#601

Post by jraph »

cpsns wrote: post #562
bsuvc wrote: post #335

1. We will learn that one or more traditional banks have taken on cryptocurrency exposure and will need to be bailed out to prevent another financial crisis. 2. Politicians will introduce legislation to regulate AI, with the initial focus on copyright protection, but it will be defeated. Court cases are brought against companies for training ML using copyrighted data, setting up an eventual supreme court battle in co…

> Year of Linux desktop! After buying a chromebook a month ago I am completely convinced this came a few years ago and no one paid any attention as it wasn't the vision they had of the Linux desktop. I was blown away by how nice ChromeOS is to use, how seamless everything is, and how well Crostini (I think it's called this) works at running Linux programs. ChromeOS is honestly the single best Linux experience I have…

> After buying a chromebook a month ago I am completely convinced this came a few years ago and no one paid any attention as it wasn't the vision they had of the Linux desktop.

I noticed but I don't think this is a satisfactory Linux Desktop. It goes against many stuff Linux Desktop proponents could be fighting for, mainly privacy and controlling one's computing. The main point of the Chromebook is to make your computer a thin client to run your computing on Google's servers. I think computing should go the opposite way. It's fast and has no virus though.

As for the market share, I know nobody with a Chromebook around me, I don't think it's a big thing where I am.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#602

Post by bakuninsbart »

rapsey wrote: post #80
hikingsimulator wrote: post #21

Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…

Regarding 3. There are a whole lot of people projecting their desires on this situation and letting their dislike of Elon completely cloud their judgement and reasoning capacity. What is going on at Twitter is the Musk modus operandi and he is almost certainly loving his time there right now. He put it all on the line at PayPal, Tesla and now Twitter. It's just extremely public this time. You can say he failed plenty…

It is really hard to argue that this is the best way to turn the company around. He might get lucky with a number of factors,and the level of addiction of twitter nerds can't be overstated, but losing so much of your engineering team is still a major risk. Also, given the fact that a lot of advertisers don't seem to be pleased, it is hard to imagine how they are going to translate higher engagement into higher revenue.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#603

Post by birdymcbird »

nlnn wrote: post #27
birdymcbird wrote: post #15

- More gentleman layoffs at Google - At least 2 rounds of hard layoffs at Amazon, plus gentleman layoffs. No more Bezos billion dollar Prime Video projects. Shedding at least 10-12% of white collar work force to signal to the market they’re trying to prop the stock - The economic hard landing - Disney stock will fare much better under Iger - Additional rate hikes from the Fed, at least 100bps but maybe 150 - Twitter…

I tried searching, but what is a gentleman layoff?

Gentleman layoff is how you layoff quietly without too much attention. Quietly raise low performer target %.

Your unregretted attrition targets were 4%? Great! This year they’re 8%.

Mr. Managers, please produce this list by end of month.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#604

Post by scrollaway »

lhl wrote: post #569
SyzygistSix wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw that too. I think Nivenkos wins the 2022 prediction prize.

I think Nivenkos did a better job than most, but actually I think alkonaut did a bit better from a quick skim: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29747250 * Nivenkos predicted that Omicron would create natural immunity to COVID, but I think alkonaut's prediction was more nuanced/accurate: that organized responses end and there are new variants that we live with (although there has been a greater level of immune esc…

I like their prediction about NFTs too. Got damn close. I wouldn’t say they’re straight up toxic for everyone but… they’re close to it.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#605

Post by hutzlibu »

varjag wrote: post #574
hutzlibu wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like I said, I am not really a follower of russian TV, I mainly just read various Speeches Putin gave. And there was never anything close of "we're going after every Ukrainian and their children", that I remember. It was variations of "the NATO is coming closer to us everyday and we have to fight back". If you know more and different, pls share.

You must have missed the speech when Putin officially annexed the territory he grabbed thus far. The imperial irredentism has little to do with the NATO narrative. But as I said the consistency in Russian propaganda is never sought after, neither by the propagandists nor the willing recipients. Also, https://www.newsweek.com/russian-state-tv-boss-says-drown-uk...

"You must have missed the speech when Putin officially annexed the territory he grabbed thus far"

I am pretty sure I have read it, but I don't remember anything close to what is in that TV show, which is indeed very disturbing, as it is state TV.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#607

Post by kaashif »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #529
codegeek wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

#1 and #3 are contradicting each other. If deglobalization accelerates, why would hiring be anywhere in the world where labor costs are lower ? Shouldn't it be the opposite ? Also, I disagree with #1 and agree with #3 to some extent. I think Globalization is already here and it will only intensify. It is not a zero sum game and all sides can benefit from it considering they stop thinking of Globalization as a bad thi…

Globalization is only good for GDP and only on first order thinking. Shipping things that could easily have been made local. Second order cost -- Environmental damage. Concentration of ecological damage (eg smog in China, clear cuts instead of selective foresting etc). Decreasing the varietals of foods brought to market so they're stable for shipping , easier to grade / machine. Second order cost -- higher risk to cr…

> Shipping things that could easily have been made local. Second order cost -- Environmental damage.

One thing I'd like to mention is that sea shipping is actually very efficient, and the things being shipped usually have much more CO2 associated with their production and use than the shipping itself. For shipping cars:

> A cargo ship produces 16.14 grams of CO2 per metric ton of goods shipped per kilometer.

From https://8billiontrees.com/carbon-offsets-credits/carbon-ecol...

If we say a car weighs 2 tons and is shipped 10,000km, that emits 323kg of CO2. But in a year, the average car produces 4 tons of CO2 (in the US): https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-t...

And for food it's similar:

> Transport typically accounts for less than 1% of beef’s GHG emissions: choosing to eat local has very minimal effects on its total footprint.

From https://ourworldindata.org/food-choice-vs-eating-local

I continue to believe that eating locally sourced meat is just a way for people to feel good while continuing to damage the environment 99% as much.

And one last thing:

> As soon as they have a middle class the "advantage" disappears.

And how do these poor countries acquire a middle class without resources or trade?

This isn't to say that I disagree with your overall point that going full on globalist has hidden costs. National security concerns are often not addressed for one.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#609

Post by midasuni »

Sugimot0 wrote: post #578
midasuni wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> many saw a pandemic was due at some point, few saw COVID coming in the six months preceding as very early news came in small fragments from China. Last years hd a few saying Russia would invade Ukraine (and as many saying it wouldn’t), but of those they thought Ukraine would fold in days and have no support from the west. Nobody expected Ukraine to successfully repel the invasion. In 2020 predictions I don’t see an…

Yeah iirc i was reading about a suspected outbreak of a new disease in China late 2019, I told my coworkers about it too and wondered how it hadn't garnered more attention, or if I had just watched too many bio-horror flicks, or fallen for clickbait-y fear mongering. I never suspected it's impact would have the scale it did, especially after the Ebola containment went so smooth.

Yet you, and nobody else, seems to have posted anything about it on HN

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1577750400&dateRange=custom&...

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#610

Post by thuridas »

fqye wrote: post #174
parasti wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It already happened this year.

I don't think it was full out from Russia's side. They could still mobilize millions and use nukes. They haven't really bombed Kyiv's critical infrastructures and government buildings, for example president's office. I think Putin will bet it all on full out war to conquer Ukraine in 2023. I wish I would be wrong.

Russia is short of missiles. They already need to buy drones to Iran.

Some infrastructure is not destroyed so easily and those are weapons not used on military targets.

If you mobilize millons:

A) there wouldn't be weapons, uniforms, rations, training for them.

B) Russian logistic is already their weak link. They would increase the need to ship the supplies.

C) who is going to keep the country working. Their economy world collapse

D) a lot of angry people with weapons is a recipe for the revolution

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