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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#511

Post by CalChris »

r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

The chief beneficiary of Bretton Woods was the non-West but I think deglobalization will be seen as simply a disengagement with the non-West. There will continue to be brisk trade between Italy and South Korea. There will be less trade between China and the United States.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#512

Post by hutzlibu »

varjag wrote: post #341
hutzlibu wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hm, I surely did not follow every speech of Putin or RT news in general, but as far as I did, the narrative that the Ukrainian needs to be liberated as Russians, did not change and has been pretty consistent. What did change, were the various threats towards the west and stated goals of what to achieve and back and forth with mobilisation and such. Putins goal is clear, he wants a Eurasian Empire. But he is apparentl…

No, the narrative is anywhere from "we're defending Russia proper from invasion" to "we're going after every Ukrainian and their children" between different (and sometimes the same) TV hosts and public figures.

Like I said, I am not really a follower of russian TV, I mainly just read various Speeches Putin gave. And there was never anything close of "we're going after every Ukrainian and their children", that I remember.

It was variations of "the NATO is coming closer to us everyday and we have to fight back". If you know more and different, pls share.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#513

Post by bloopernova »

BrotherBisquick wrote: post #459
hikingsimulator wrote: post #21

Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…

[flagged]

what do you define as monstrous about the human beings you are vilifying?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#515

Post by cromulent »

Unklejoe wrote: post #481

There is a serious push to find a way to tax electric car owners to make up for the lack of a road tax that’s normally rolled into gasoline prices. Some people will propose tracking the mileage, while others will resist that idea because of privacy reasons. It will be debated here on HN. Kind of a cheat guess since it’s already starting to happen now, but I expect it to intensify as more and more people get EVs.

Yeah, already happening in Aus and proposed in Fin.

https://www.drive.com.au/news/electric-car-road-user-charges...

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#517

Post by perlgeek »

canadiantim wrote: post #314
ad404b8a372f2b9 wrote: post #237

In the world: Euthanasia becomes a hot button issue and is legalized through referendums in most Western European countries. The Ukraine war ends after Russia starts gaining back territory in February, some kind of peace deal is reached, Ukraine loses the occupied territories and Europe agrees to pay for most of the reconstruction. We see the first feature-length movie with AI-generated video. On my end: I buy a hous…

But how can you marry Scarlett Johansson if I'm also going to marry Scarlett Johansson?

marriage, divorce, another marriage?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#518

Post by graeme »

1. Complete victory for Ukraine, with Russia at minimum gone from Donbas and likely gone from Crimea

2. More supply trouble, not less, as Covid waves become a fact of life in China. This may be masked by recession

3. 2023 will be the first year people start to mutter that maybe Covid isn’t just a cold even if you’re vaccinated, and links will be made to rising heart attacks in working age people. However there will first be “the pandemic is really over now!” during the summer lull, before a wave of respiratory infections in the fall

4. If we’re lucky, point #3 will lead to a focus on indoor air quality/co2 measurement, but this one isn’t a prediction. It’s the obvious eventual solution though

5. Tether blows up, and more crypto institutions blow up, including Binance and DCG. Likely Silvergate bank too

6. Labour force continues to “mysteriously” shrink as more people are knocked out by long Covid, acute illness, caring for loved ones, and death

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#520

Post by csa »

Unklejoe wrote: post #481

There is a serious push to find a way to tax electric car owners to make up for the lack of a road tax that’s normally rolled into gasoline prices. Some people will propose tracking the mileage, while others will resist that idea because of privacy reasons. It will be debated here on HN. Kind of a cheat guess since it’s already starting to happen now, but I expect it to intensify as more and more people get EVs.

This already happens in many states.

Annual egistration for EVs in California (where I live) is a few hundred higher for EVs versus comparable ICE vehicles.

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