Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#501

Post by Duplo » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:52 PM UTC

MzHN wrote: post #170

CMCDragonkai wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are working in decentralised hole punching with QUIC to help enable P2P.

Does it work when both users have symmetric NAT with randomized ports? WebRTC provides an abundance of hole punching, but as far as I've learned, nothing gets through symmetric NAT with randomized ports. Except for relays (TURN), which isn't P2P.

A few weeks ago I tested a number of family phones using the online tools available and symmetric NAT was detected, some were very large UK mobile networks (Vodafone IIRC). That made me give up too.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#502

Post by tester756 » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:53 PM UTC

thibran wrote: post #407

2023 will be the year where normal people will be affected by the AI revolution. Other things that might become true: - Autonomous cars drive better than the average human - Robots starts to become a "real" marked - The Ukraine war ends (Russia looses) - Apple will no longer be the second most valuable company of the world - The successor of the mobile phone is presented - First satellites with telecom tower capabili…

Where does your faith in "AI/ML" comes from?

I'm hearing about AI being hot since probably 2014 and the biggest its impact that I think is close to me is search & recommendation and I don't think that's gonna change.

Autonomous cars aren'g going to be common (let's say >=5% market share) in my country in next 5 years that's for sure

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#503

Post by donkeybeer » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:53 PM UTC

mellosouls wrote: post #228

rsj_hn wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I'm not sure of your motivation either, but we all have our biases; those are powerful predictions, and it's a shame you've been hit with such a downvote attack.

With use of terms like "President Harris" I think it is clear who is the more biased person here.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#504

Post by ghiculescu » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:56 PM UTC

perlgeek wrote: post #500

ghiculescu wrote: post #472

- Russia will win the war, around the same time, most Americans will stop caring about it (same as happened with Covid this year). - Stock market goes sideways. Crypto market goes up in latter half of year as recession ramps up. - Tech recession kills remote work for all public / VC backed companies. Private, profitable companies double down on it, but with lower average wages. This creates a schism and many people c…

> Russia will win the war How do you define that? I'm mostly asking because Russia's official war goals have changed so many times that it's hard to even know what it means to "win" it. Like, control of all of Ukraine's territory is something quite different than Putin declaring that the goal all along was to keep Crimea safe, and declaring victory when it doesn't fall.

Good question.

I’m not sure what the victory condition will be, but in a years time I predict we will look back and say “yep they won”.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#505

Post by codegeek » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:57 PM UTC

r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

#1 and #3 are contradicting each other. If deglobalization accelerates, why would hiring be anywhere in the world where labor costs are lower ? Shouldn't it be the opposite ?

Also, I disagree with #1 and agree with #3 to some extent. I think Globalization is already here and it will only intensify. It is not a zero sum game and all sides can benefit from it considering they stop thinking of Globalization as a bad thing.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#506

Post by codegeek » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 6:00 PM UTC

jsemrau wrote: post #489

- Due to recent UI changes people realize that nobody reads their Tweets therefore they will stop using the app. Musk needs to sell more Tesla shares to keep the lights on. But it will be too late. - META gets more fines. Zuckerberg steps back as CEO, becomes an Amateur MMA fighter, ends up fighting Jake Paul. - Google and META launch chatGPT competitors. - TikTok will launch fully AI-generated videos and people will…

Eagles will win the Superbowl.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#507

Post by hutzlibu » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 6:00 PM UTC

JimDabell wrote: post #384

hutzlibu wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"he is almost certainly loving his time there right now." Certainly not. He loves the attention and power he has gained, but he certainly does not love the bad numbers (Tesla stock also went DOWN as well) and that the quite meaningless poll whether he should step down, was not in his favor. He did not comment on that one with "Vox Populi Vox Dei".

> he certainly does not love the bad numbers (Tesla stock also went DOWN as well) and that the quite meaningless poll whether he should step down, was not in his favor. The poll was just for show, and it was in his favour. The plan was always for him to be interim CEO, with reports going back throughout this year all the way to May about this. He keeps doing this – putting up polls where he’s already made the decisio…

"putting up polls where he’s already made the decision and knows the vote will just confirm it. Why do people keep falling for it? "

Except that he did comment those other staged polls with "Vox Populi Vox Dei" pretty much right away and put it into action vs. not commenting and no action on this one.

And he said many things, also that there will be no CEO on Twitter at all. But yes, he never intended to remain CEO - otherwise he would have never did the poll in the first place, but he definitely has no clear plan, he drives on sight. (And yes, in either case, he still owns Twitter.)

And "stepping down" translates to asking whether he was running Twitter well. And the people said "no".

Why would he want that?

What would be the benefit, if it was his plan, to make people wanting him go? You really think there is a great plan behind it?

The only vague thing might be to create an image of an reasonable emperor who listen to the people, even if it is unpleasant. But so far he does not really show the grandeur fitting that role.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#508

Post by biohax2015 » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 6:02 PM UTC

ramesh31 wrote: post #349

sweezyjeezy wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When hiring begins again a large number of the new hires are either remote or are in other geographical areas where labour costs are lower. I think this is a definite possibility too. I understand the reasons why US tech comp is higher than the rest of the world, but I don't see why it is _that_ much higher - I'm not sure it's sustainable in the new remote-work world.

I think SV will continue to pay top prices for world class talent to relocate there and work in office. Think AI PhDs, chip designers, systems programmers, graphics experts, and the like. But the days of 100k interns and 300k SWE 4's are over, and that portion of the workforce will devolve to the national average.

I pray you are wrong

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#509

Post by codegeek » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 6:03 PM UTC

mrazomor wrote: post #385

- Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs) - The age of smart assistants is over - Microsoft will make a huge mistake involving Windows -> governments and companies start making concrete transition to MacOS and Linux desktop (start in late 2023) - The all of above leads to a revolution of smaller companies, their boom, inn…

I love Linux but let's not kid ourselves. Isn't it a couple of decades now when Linux was supposed to kill Windows and it hasn't ? I say this is more of a wishful thinking.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#510

Post by codegeek » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 6:04 PM UTC

SyzygistSix wrote: post #460

forinti wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Windows is popular with users, because they are afraid of Linux, not because they really know how to use it. Windows is popular with sysadmins because it is easier to administer a large enterprise with it.

Seriously. My joke when Windows users say they don't know how to use Linux is that they don't know how to use Windows either but that doesn't stop them.

Yet you don't really try to understand why Windows keeps winning with general users ? Until we change this attitude that Linux is superior and people don't know any better, windows will continue winning.