Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#491

Post by adriancr » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:39 PM UTC

bitL wrote: post #327

Russia will have unexpected gains in Ukraine and US will decide to directly intervene using armies from Poland, Baltic states, Romania, Slovakia, Czechia, starting the WW3, escalating beyond all prior limits rapidly. EU will get completely nuked within a day, destroying all cities above 100k, leaving only pockets of rural areas survivable. UK and Ireland will be swept by a massive tsunami from a nuke detonated underw…

In your scenario I would predict that 70-80% of russian nukes and missiles malfunction due to poor maintenance / disobedience / sabotage / some existing only on paper / pre-emptive strikes due to intelligence of imminent attack.

Most of the rest end up being destroyed by already established anti-missile defenses.

Starlink ends up being a missile defense in disguise and Musk ends up being hailed as savior of some US cities after sattelites do kinetic intercepts of a lot of missiles entering space. (even though it would probably be a us dod takeover of the the sattelites)

Putin and company gets gaddafi treatment.

Russia promptly unconditionally surrenders after NATO campaign and nuclear retaliation threats or actual detonations based on how many they got through.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#492

Post by MarcosDione » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:40 PM UTC

- People will keep asking for and making predictions for next years despite their track record of low accuracy.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#493

Post by redbar0n » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:40 PM UTC

bitL wrote: post #327

Russia will have unexpected gains in Ukraine and US will decide to directly intervene using armies from Poland, Baltic states, Romania, Slovakia, Czechia, starting the WW3, escalating beyond all prior limits rapidly. EU will get completely nuked within a day, destroying all cities above 100k, leaving only pockets of rural areas survivable. UK and Ireland will be swept by a massive tsunami from a nuke detonated underw…

oh, stop with the unbridled optimism!

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#494

Post by mkulinski » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:42 PM UTC

jsemrau wrote: post #489

- Due to recent UI changes people realize that nobody reads their Tweets therefore they will stop using the app. Musk needs to sell more Tesla shares to keep the lights on. But it will be too late. - META gets more fines. Zuckerberg steps back as CEO, becomes an Amateur MMA fighter, ends up fighting Jake Paul. - Google and META launch chatGPT competitors. - TikTok will launch fully AI-generated videos and people will…

> 49ers will win the Superbowl against the Vikings.

Both are in the NFC, so unfortunately not possible.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#495

Post by SyzygistSix » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:43 PM UTC

Nomentatus wrote: post #100

Putin assassinated by suitcase-size nuclear weapon in February (many of these are missing in Russia.) War continues. Second similar explosion removes the General first replacing him within a month. War continues but Russia commits less to the fight. Iran sends troops to Ukranian war; US finally retaliates massively vs Iran's military in the Spring, as soon as the energy situation for Europe is less critical. Structur…

This is a nice change from the lack of bold predictions. It's also a good list.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#496

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:44 PM UTC

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#497

Post by SyzygistSix » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:44 PM UTC

readthenotes1 wrote: post #20

fqye wrote: post #13

Full out invasion by Russia to Ukraine.

with what?

They think war is like in Dune; nuke the walls, then hordes of men rush the town.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#498

Post by bvoq » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:46 PM UTC

HDThoreaun wrote: post #396

r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

Globalization will always be too tempting to ignore when some countries have labor costs that are ten times lower than others. Large companies will continue to have enough political power to veto the laws that would be required to reverse globalization.

also globalisation is about the only thing other than morals keeping us from fighting each other.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#499

Post by SyzygistSix » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:47 PM UTC

tazoptica wrote: post #254

[flagged]

Found Michael O. Church's HN account.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#500

Post by perlgeek » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 5:49 PM UTC

ghiculescu wrote: post #472

- Russia will win the war, around the same time, most Americans will stop caring about it (same as happened with Covid this year). - Stock market goes sideways. Crypto market goes up in latter half of year as recession ramps up. - Tech recession kills remote work for all public / VC backed companies. Private, profitable companies double down on it, but with lower average wages. This creates a schism and many people c…

> Russia will win the war

How do you define that?

I'm mostly asking because Russia's official war goals have changed so many times that it's hard to even know what it means to "win" it.

Like, control of all of Ukraine's territory is something quite different than Putin declaring that the goal all along was to keep Crimea safe, and declaring victory when it doesn't fall.