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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#381

Post by laidoffamazon »

- GPT-4 launches

- US barely avoids recession, slow growth for H1, back to normal H2. NBER announces no recession in 2022.

- Inflation normalizes at 4%, Fed pivots despite prior denials. Market trades sideways to slightly higher by EOY 2023.

- Robotaxis become common in 10 cities around the southwest between the top ~4 competitors, but revenues are lower than expected.

- Continued consolidation amongst the AV component suppliers

- DeSantis, Pence, Christie, Hutchinson, Hogan enter the Presidential race. DeSantis ends up being weaker than expected, and is in a close #2 with Trump by the end of the year against a split field.

- Trump recovers in GOP primary polls after DOJ indictment

- Biden announces re-election bid, met with token opposition from Nina Turner

- McCarthy narrowly wins speakership, House investigations end up a dud.

- Another fusion breakthrough (higher Q than expected) EOY 2023

- Tech job market normalizes at 2018 levels instead of 2021 levels in the second half of 2023.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#382

Post by wombatpm »

Aeolun wrote: post #344
hikingsimulator wrote: post #21

Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…

> 6, the USA suffers a right wing terrorist attack against a gay pride event in June with 30+ deaths I like how you specify the month and the number of deaths to make it a bit more of a challenge.

June is gay pride month, which is when you will have the most large events. Need big numbers to hit 30+

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#383

Post by julienreszka »

SyzygistSix wrote: post #379
julienreszka wrote: post #374

- Commercial fusion becomes profitable business - Tax optimization becomes mainstream thanks to defi - There is no global recession and the world's economies reach unprecedented levels of high growth rates

They said 2023 not 2032.

Sometimes things happen unexpectedly fast, who knows.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#384

Post by JimDabell »

hutzlibu wrote: post #137
rapsey wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding 3. There are a whole lot of people projecting their desires on this situation and letting their dislike of Elon completely cloud their judgement and reasoning capacity. What is going on at Twitter is the Musk modus operandi and he is almost certainly loving his time there right now. He put it all on the line at PayPal, Tesla and now Twitter. It's just extremely public this time. You can say he failed plenty…

"he is almost certainly loving his time there right now." Certainly not. He loves the attention and power he has gained, but he certainly does not love the bad numbers (Tesla stock also went DOWN as well) and that the quite meaningless poll whether he should step down, was not in his favor. He did not comment on that one with "Vox Populi Vox Dei".

> he certainly does not love the bad numbers (Tesla stock also went DOWN as well) and that the quite meaningless poll whether he should step down, was not in his favor.

The poll was just for show, and it was in his favour. The plan was always for him to be interim CEO, with reports going back throughout this year all the way to May about this. He keeps doing this – putting up polls where he’s already made the decision and knows the vote will just confirm it. Why do people keep falling for it?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#385

Post by mrazomor »

- Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs)

- The age of smart assistants is over

- Microsoft will make a huge mistake involving Windows -> governments and companies start making concrete transition to MacOS and Linux desktop (start in late 2023)

- The all of above leads to a revolution of smaller companies, their boom, innovation, and culture which more resemble 90s than 2020s.

- Emergence of a new UI (non-smartphone/desktop/voice/VR)

- Countries start to move away from the fossil fuels for generating electricity. New nuclear revolution.

- New major Internet fragmentation

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#386

Post by [deleted] »

irusensei wrote: post #126
Beldin wrote: post #87

- Full Self Driving will be "1-2 years away", much as it has been for the last 7 years - Nuclear fusion "is only 2 decades away", just as it has been the last 40-60 years. - same for other "right around the corner" predictions - the world will change; most of that change is incremental; any real radical shifts will only be apparent with hindsight. - the superrich are going to get loads more superrich; the environment…

You forgot to mention the year of the Linux desktop.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#387

Post by Balgair »

Enrollments for all History classes combined rises at least in the double digit percentage as a US national average. At least 50% of those that increased the enrollments will be double majors.

I think ChatGPT is going to allow a lot of STEM majors to try out a double major/minor in the Humanities. This is assuming that ChatGPT remains cheaper to use than the cost of a textbook.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#388

Post by HDThoreaun »

odiroot wrote: post #258
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

I think you're more or less spot on, but very far with the last one on UK. The economy is more resilient than you think, especially the City. I have a feeling the war ironically helped. It prevented the finance from moving out to the continent.

London is resilient. The rest of the country will continue its long decline.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#389

Post by chestervonwinch »

birdymcbird wrote: post #15

- More gentleman layoffs at Google - At least 2 rounds of hard layoffs at Amazon, plus gentleman layoffs. No more Bezos billion dollar Prime Video projects. Shedding at least 10-12% of white collar work force to signal to the market they’re trying to prop the stock - The economic hard landing - Disney stock will fare much better under Iger - Additional rate hikes from the Fed, at least 100bps but maybe 150 - Twitter…

> - More gentleman layoffs at Google

more in addition to what?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#390

Post by ghaff »

yyyk wrote: post #133

Tech: * AI will keep wowing us, but in 2023 actual change will be surprisingly little. Turns out the extra 1% is rather important for serious applications, and less serious applications could do with existing solutions - Third-world click/content-farms are surprisingly competitive economically. * Website rendering will edge a bit towards WebAssembly+canvas stacks, essentially the second coming of Flash - the need/des…

The thing with content farms is a lot of the listicles etc. trade in currency, e.g. the best five blah-blahs of 2023. In general, that's not the sort of thing that generative AI is really set up for today. That will come as will rewriting press releases with some additional context. But, as you say, major impacts are probably later this decade as opposed to 2023 which will still be in the curiosity phase.
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