371–380 of 816 posts
* WebGPU will ship but early adoption will be slow.
* Stable Diffusion will run on WebGPU.
* Rust adoption will accelerate rapidly; C++ increasingly for legacy code only.
* Rust will also become an official side in the Stupid Culture Wars.
* Twitter.com will become a pale shadow of its former self (also having become a side in the SCW).
* Mastodon will be big. It will have growing pains but deal with them reasonably well.
- 49ers wins Super Bowl
- Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko dies and Russia invades Blarus. No war.
- Ukraine war continues but Russia is willing to negotiate. Negotiations will start but the war is still on.
- In China, Xi Jinping is replaced with somebody from Hu Jintao side. China’s economy cools a little.
- Google starts big layoffs. Considering spinning off cloud business.
- US economy still in recession and inflation is high
- AI becomes mainstream. 60% of all startups in 2023 are about AI.
AI: - Composable language models will allow millions of people to collaborate on building/training AI without needing unusual GPUs or supercomputers - Large numbers will be prime factored using guesses generated by giant "AI" statistical models. No one will understand why it works. - The internet is flooded with AI generated non-sense - Search engines are forced to limit the sites they search to ones with verified hu…
- Tax optimization becomes mainstream thanks to defi
- There is no global recession and the world's economies reach unprecedented levels of high growth rates
My 2022 [0] were (Christmas 2022 comment in parenthesis): - Bitcoin will go down to $12,000 (almost nobody saw this coming - back then it was a bit below $50,000) - One EU country will default (not Italy), the EU will bail it out (not exactly) - China will enter a recession (got this one) - 2022 will be the year of the hottest and coldest temperatures on record (quite accurate) - and also highest CO2 produced on reco…
It never hit 12k, but my target was always 17k, which it did hit. I publicly told many people who asked when it was around 50k to wait for 17k.
Simple analysis made this quite clear - The last three crashes had an 85% drop in price, based on the trend, 17k was the target.
I don’t see it going to 5k, to this point, the crash has followed historical precedent - going to 5k would not follow historical precedent.
Guess we’ll find out, one of us will be wrong.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The one prediction I've seen (not here) that I agree with is that the Model Y will be the highest selling vehicle in the world in 2023. But I don't disagree with you about BEVs. I think companies will focus on hybrids as much as BEVs.
Not a hope. Won't win the US market because of not being big enough, will do even worse worldwide because of the price tag.
A lot of cautious and/or negative predictions in this thread. 1. The UK rejoins the EU either literally or effectively (i.e. bound by basically the same agreements). 2. Russia withdraws from Ukraine and enters into good-faith talks about reparations for their invasion. 3. Twitter collapses. 4. Major new environmentally-friendly method of goods transportation discovered which is effectively a drop-in replacement for g…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The market for stock photography and grunt level copy writing collapses entirely. You assume that with the new technology the total number of people needed in this sector will be reduced, but I think the industry will simply adjust, and the only visible result would be that more content will be produced by the same number of people. This is a competitive market (your success is determined by the amount of money you…
> the only visible result would be that more content will be produced by the same number of people That’s not what they predicted; the “we just get more content! People won’t lose their jobs…” argument aside, the market that is willing to spend money on content seems reasonably likely to drop off. People will continue to want content, yes. People will continue to buy content, yes. …however, it seems difficult to beli…
That's a statement about 2023. I don't pretend to know what will be the case in five years.
- Commercial fusion becomes profitable business - Tax optimization becomes mainstream thanks to defi - There is no global recession and the world's economies reach unprecedented levels of high growth rates
1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…
I think you're more or less spot on, but very far with the last one on UK. The economy is more resilient than you think, especially the City. I have a feeling the war ironically helped. It prevented the finance from moving out to the continent.
Sure, but OP said “continues to decline”, not “completely collapses.”