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Paper-Thin Solar Makes Any Surface Photovoltaic

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Re: Paper-Thin Solar Makes Any Surface Photovoltaic

#121

Post by xsmasher »

laurencerowe wrote: post #89
kube-system wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I just got a quote for a solar system here in the US, the price for the system was right around $40,000. Add in the cost of re installation when I need a roof replacement, and the break even is when the warranty expires.

Domestic rooftop solar no longer makes financial sense. Panels have gotten so cheap that installation costs now dominate. Utility scale solar can be built outright for the 30% subsidy offered on domestic solar.

I'm not sure I understand - how could it make sense when panels were more expensive, but "no longer makes financial sense" because panels are cheap?

Re: Paper-Thin Solar Makes Any Surface Photovoltaic

#122

Post by gofreddygo »

laurencerowe wrote: post #113
gofreddygo wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Utility scale solar can be built outright for the 30% subsidy offered on domestic solar. What does that even mean ? I have a ton of sunlight all throughout the year (almost). What do I do to harness it ?

> What does that even mean ? So in 2021 solar construction costs averaged $2.94/W for residential and $0.77/W for utility scale solar. https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/how-does-utility-scale-sol... So if you installed a 10kW residential system it might cost $29,400 which would make you eligible for a 30% federal tax credit at a cost to the government of $8,820. However if the government instead spent that $8,820 on…

I get your point now.

Panels cost 4 times as much when installed individually instead of at a community scale. I agree the economy of scale here is just too good to be wasted away like this.

As a consumer though, I see two practical choices (1) keep paying PG&E their increasing cost for electricity or (2) eat that initial high cost of solar install and keep outgoing cost constant for a decade.

And some impractical ones like convince a bunch of people to setup a grid at community scale or do a DIY solar install to keep the install cost low.

Re: Paper-Thin Solar Makes Any Surface Photovoltaic

#123

Post by todd8 »

jldugger wrote: post #43
photochemsyn wrote: post #24

Monocrystalline Si solar panels have so many advantages that it's hard to get interested in anything else for home or business construction. Lifetime is measured in decades, not years; efficiency is approaching 25% while prices are dropping (only expensive multi-junction III-V types are better, currently limited to satellite power systems); and for variable surfaces, they can be manufactured as small shingles as well…

Bear in mind that China has like, no oil[0] or gas[1] at all. Their investments into renewables is kind of a life of death situation, not just for the world, but the PLA specifically, who would likely monopolize domestic oil production in any military engagement. Also worth mentioning that Beijing sits on one side of a mountain range, and the other side is arid desert. It's kind of a no brainer to drop solar panels t…

> In contrast, wind seems to already be making 10 percent of the US demand[4], versus solars 2 percent.

The numbers can be misleading; I'm not suggesting that jldugger doesn't understand this, just that I find the numbers and the way they are quoted a bit confusing. If we look at primary energy consumption by source from the US Energy Information Agency we see [1] that for 2021 the US used 98 quads of energy.

The breakdown into primary energy consumption by source for 2021 is

    77   quads from fossil fuels
     8   quads from nuclear 
     5   quads from biomass
     3.3 quads from wind
     2   quads from hydro
     1.5 quads from solar
     ===========================
     98  quads total
These number are rounded, see original for details (quad == Quadrillion BTU). It appears to me that wind plus solar are providing close to 5% of US consumption of energy.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T...

Re: Paper-Thin Solar Makes Any Surface Photovoltaic

#124

Post by rbanffy »

Armisael16 wrote: post #115
rbanffy wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In a purely market-driven world Europe would not be investing in solar In a purely market-driven world, we'd already be well on our way to extinction.

Man, I was just trying to answer the question “why does this work in Northern Europe but won’t in the US”. Not everything is an attack.

I didn't read it as one, but I wanted to point out that unregulated capitalism would have killed us all.

Re: Paper-Thin Solar Makes Any Surface Photovoltaic

#125

Post by jldugger »

not2b wrote: post #98
davedx wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"solar doesn't make sense in many places in the US. You want somewhere dry and bright, which cuts off the pacific northwest, and most of the north*" Can you explain with numbers how you arrive at this conclusion? (Solar is extremely popular and viable in Northern Europe, so it surprises me to read it)

The Pacific Northwest is near-desert just east of the Cascades, and transmission lines could carry power to Seattle, Portland, and Vancouver BC from the dry sunny parts.

The cascade rain shadow is helpful but the PNW is far enough north that you're not getting direct sunlight. And unfortunately the Pacific Northwest is also relatively low population. 4 million for the Seattle metro, 2.5 in Portland. Even if you built out enough solar for Washington and Oregon, we're only 3 percent of the US population. Plus these states have pretty good hydro already. While there are arguments about the ecological impacts of hydro, I think reasonable people will agree that those are now sunk costs and there's not much reason to retire them early.

There seems to be a better argument in the southwest, where we have less agriculture and the hydro power Lake Mead provides is now questionable. which is why there are already massive farms there. Though, without that water I'm not sure who would want to live in Vegas at all. The best place for solar seems to be California rooftops. Lots of population, far enough south to have closer to optimal solar incidence, and arid climate that wont interfere too much.

But all of this means that you shouldn't expect a unified, cohesive federal energy plan. I don't, at least. Instead we should expect different geographies to find different niches, and a much more diversified plan spread across many more forms: wind, solar, hydro, fission, fusion, geothermal, etc. Plus anyone complaining the US underinvests in R&D has to contend with the fact that this publication came from MIT, and was funded in part by the NSF.

Re: Paper-Thin Solar Makes Any Surface Photovoltaic

#126

Post by laurencerowe »

xsmasher wrote: post #121
laurencerowe wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Domestic rooftop solar no longer makes financial sense. Panels have gotten so cheap that installation costs now dominate. Utility scale solar can be built outright for the 30% subsidy offered on domestic solar.

I'm not sure I understand - how could it make sense when panels were more expensive, but "no longer makes financial sense" because panels are cheap?

When panel costs dominate the difference in installation costs between residential and utility scale solar don’t matter as much. Those subsidies encouraged investment and helped drive down the cost of panels in the long run by expanding the market.

Now that panels are cheap the installation costs dominate. Residential installation is basically never going to get substantially cheaper so it no longer makes sense to subsidise such systems when the subsidy alone would pay for more efficiently installed utility scale solar.

It seems like we should shift the subsidy to expansion of grid connectivity as that now seems to be the blocker for projects.

Re: Paper-Thin Solar Makes Any Surface Photovoltaic

#127

Post by poulsbohemian »

jldugger wrote: post #43
photochemsyn wrote: post #24

Monocrystalline Si solar panels have so many advantages that it's hard to get interested in anything else for home or business construction. Lifetime is measured in decades, not years; efficiency is approaching 25% while prices are dropping (only expensive multi-junction III-V types are better, currently limited to satellite power systems); and for variable surfaces, they can be manufactured as small shingles as well…

Bear in mind that China has like, no oil[0] or gas[1] at all. Their investments into renewables is kind of a life of death situation, not just for the world, but the PLA specifically, who would likely monopolize domestic oil production in any military engagement. Also worth mentioning that Beijing sits on one side of a mountain range, and the other side is arid desert. It's kind of a no brainer to drop solar panels t…

>which cuts off the pacific northwest,

Which is mostly ok, as Eastern Washington and central / eastern Oregon fit the bill both for these state as a whole, plus could be theoretically exporting their hydro / solar / wind generated power to other parts of the country. Problem is, the rural parts of these states feel ignored by the urban (read: politically powerful) parts of the states, leading to all sorts of pettiness around siting of new wind / solar deployments.

Re: Paper-Thin Solar Makes Any Surface Photovoltaic

#128

Post by struggle2 »

mwint wrote: post #94
struggle2 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No you are incorrect. There are 2 maximum masses: the one from the manufacturer and then the legal mass limit. Legal mass limit = MIN(3.5t, max mass according to manufacturer) or more precisely MIN(max_mass_you_are_certified_for, may_mass_according_to_manufacturer). It is not about + or - 10 kg. But things definitely add up. 10kg here - 10kg there. Solar panels is something that is under the control of whoever buys t…

Who is weighing your van, and when? Genuine question, as this practically doesn’t happen in the US for anything with fewer than 18 wheels.

It happens all over the EU. Police will randomly select semis and camper vans and ask them to follow them to a weighting station. For example in Germany they are spread out along the Autobahn - same in France and NL.

The weight is usually determined by 4 scales (1 for each wheel).

Then they look at your papers which also includes information about max load at the front + back.

If you are over weight you have to get rid of the additional weight and if you can't they will seize the car. You get fined. It does happen.

It happened to me twice in Germany, once in Norway and once in France.

Re: Paper-Thin Solar Makes Any Surface Photovoltaic

#129

Post by jldugger »

gloosx wrote: post #119
jldugger wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bear in mind that China has like, no oil[0] or gas[1] at all. Their investments into renewables is kind of a life of death situation, not just for the world, but the PLA specifically, who would likely monopolize domestic oil production in any military engagement. Also worth mentioning that Beijing sits on one side of a mountain range, and the other side is arid desert. It's kind of a no brainer to drop solar panels t…

But why couldn't China just keep milking it`s fat cow Russia? AFAIK they are getting mass oil and gas for literally nothing.

Do you know how that supply is making it to china? Almost all of the pipes go from Russian oil fields west to Europe. Even the pipelines that travel east have to contend with a reality that Nobody lives in the Gobi desert. Instead what is happening is oil is being shipped by boat to non-aligned parties like India and China. Supposedly using ship-to-ship transfers[1] to obscure origin, or because Russian ports can't support supertankers.

And all of the PLA's ambition is in the South China sea, which means even if you rely on Russia to supply you wartime energy, it has to ship through a battlefield. And anyone opposed to it has a pretty free hand to say "mine now" as the path meanders by Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, India, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka etc.

   [1]: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-ship-to-ship-transfer-anonymous-chinese-buyer-sanctions-2022-8

Re: Paper-Thin Solar Makes Any Surface Photovoltaic

#130

Post by gloosx »

jldugger wrote: post #129
gloosx wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But why couldn't China just keep milking it`s fat cow Russia? AFAIK they are getting mass oil and gas for literally nothing.

Do you know how that supply is making it to china? Almost all of the pipes go from Russian oil fields west to Europe. Even the pipelines that travel east have to contend with a reality that Nobody lives in the Gobi desert. Instead what is happening is oil is being shipped by boat to non-aligned parties like India and China. Supposedly using ship-to-ship transfers[1] to obscure origin, or because Russian ports can't s…

yeah fair point, thanks for clarifying this
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