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Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

robkhenderson.substack.com

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Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#151

Post by jrm4 »

johanvts wrote: post #124
jrm4 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, lets get Taleb exactly right here: He basically says don't invest "moderately," -- like putting your large amounts of money in stocks, even index funds, is a bad idea. Invest in both extremes, barbell style. Put MOST of it in something bulletproof (he goes with Treasury Bonds) and then the rest as big bets on long shots.

Really depends on you goals and also current financial security. I would rather receive 50.000$ than a 10% chance at 500.000$. But a richer person would probably choose the latter.

Sure, but one of the big points of "The Black Swan" is that your (and everybody's) percentages numbers are way less reliable than you think.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#152

Post by zach_garwood »

tgv wrote: post #104
jonnycomputer wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, and I don't think its counter-signalling either. Successful authors are likely to have people actively promoting their work for them; the one thing others can't do for them is write (unless they're willing to have other people perform the work they are known for).

It's seems to be hard for people to imagine there are more channels than Twitter. They are on twitter, everybody they know is on twitter, and by that they judge everything.

And people on Twitter vastly overestimate Twitter's importance. That some people think it's a "public town square" is just laughable. It's the trash-laden alley behind an Arby's, at best.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#153

Post by steveBK123 »

boeingUH60 wrote: post #146
steveBK123 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, this is generally underestimated. The closer I've worked with this class the more it becomes apparent in quiet anecdotes that don't always make the official bios or wikis. Most self-made billionaires came from at least millionaire families. Generally hard working, smart guys with a lot of skill & luck, but they start at a level we can only dream that maybe our children or grandchildren can start from. I once wor…

> Another firm managing ~$10B there was a guy who unbelievably made it to the C-suite in his 20s. It was never clear exactly what the connection was, but he was some sort of family friend of the founder and worked for him as a teen. He was also related to a big bank CEO. Sounds like Matthew Grimes, lol https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-28/from-inte...

Actually a totally different guy, tells you how common the scenario is...

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#154

Post by lotsofpulp »

nradov wrote: post #94
steveBK123 wrote: post #47

"An example from Ogilvy Vice Chairman Rory Sutherland: If you’re a top executive, turning up to work on a bicycle is a high-status activity because it was a choice and not a necessity. But if you work at Pizza Hut, turning up on a bike means you can’t afford a car." This tidbit reminds me of a similar anecdote (that my experience aligns with) re: the modern upper class that wearing a $2k Rolex or driving a $70k BMW i…

The Toyota Land Cruiser has been a popular car in certain upper-class circles. At $87k it's fairly expensive, but it doesn't look expensive.

However, the Land Cruiser will be passed down for many generations, so the amortized cost of a Land Cruiser is not expensive.

Also, Land Cruiser has apparently been discontinued.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#155

Post by nradov »

doubled112 wrote: post #109
ehnto wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want to make assumptions, but it's my understanding that they're usually on finance which means they're paying much more than sticker price. I certainly don't know many middle class people with 70k in savings to throw around, either everyone is doing a lot better than they otherwise expose or there's easy money on the table. I think we'll see price corrections downward for cars over the next 5 years, as inter…

Of course people are financing them. Vehicles are expensive. I believe the average used car price is over $40K now here. Even an average used car was about $20K. Let's stick to the truck, though. F-150s are everywhere. If I head to the Ford Canada website, an F-150 XL (the cheap one) is $39K before you get started. A Platinum brings you up to $87K, and the Limited brings you up to $98K. The website is definitely NOT…

The average new car transaction price is currently $48K.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-september...

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#156

Post by matthewdgreen »

bjornsing wrote: post #111

> One form of countersignaling is excess humility. It increases status for those who are already high status, but humility decreases status for those who are not high-status. Great to see a scientific reason for one of my long held opinions: “humility policing” is a social tactic, and a very efficient one if you’re high status. Don’t fall for it. Resist the humility police. Give and claim credit where credit is due.

The problem with these online “status” discussions is that they discuss status as though it’s independent of the hard work and talent that typically results in success. I’m not saying that’s always present: some people just get lucky. But most of the people you probably want to emulate aren’t “just” lucky. They’re talented and worked hard to produce exceptional work over and over again, and then maybe also had some luck.

Anyway, the point here is that I’ve been fortunate to meet a number of really talented people at various stages of their careers, and many of the most talented ones really are humble. They act that way because they don’t need to be boastful about their work in the first place, and lack of humility is a really good way to make people resent you instead of helping you, which is counterproductive when you’re good at what you do. It also signals that you aren’t confident in your work, or that you’re overconfident and not careful. Both can be red flags.

Don’t know why I’m writing this. I just wish someone had explained these things to me when I was starting out in my career.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#157

Post by speakfreely »

osigurdson wrote: post #122

Pure trash. Be yourself, emulate whoever you want (or no one). Do what feels right. If someone looks down on you for riding a bike to work (regardless of your current "status"), #1 they are idiots and their respect and admiration is worth zero and #2 choke them out :). Life is too short for such ridiculous minutia.

Would love to set a 10 year reminder to check in on how this life strategy has worked out.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#158

Post by lullab »

2devnull wrote: post #73
lullab wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the real takeaway from his story is to bet big in a new market to get rich. And if you lose it all, earn more and do it again. It would have happened in the early days of the internet just the same. Yes, it's incredibly risky but at least it has a better chance than playing the lottery. Like Nassim Taleb says, bet on things with a limited downside and unlimited upside. And if you don't try, nothing will happen.

“things with a limited downside and unlimited upside” Penny stocks and junk bonds, a classic recipe for attaining mega wealth.

Theoretically yes. Even putting it all on black in Vegas could work. But it doesn't mean you should do it. Any investment is inherently a gamble, some are riskier than others and some have a too small payoff for the risk.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#159

Post by osigurdson »

speakfreely wrote: post #157
osigurdson wrote: post #122

Pure trash. Be yourself, emulate whoever you want (or no one). Do what feels right. If someone looks down on you for riding a bike to work (regardless of your current "status"), #1 they are idiots and their respect and admiration is worth zero and #2 choke them out :). Life is too short for such ridiculous minutia.

Would love to set a 10 year reminder to check in on how this life strategy has worked out.

Right. Wow, look at me, I now have a cushy (soul crushing) job at the city just like my slightly wealthier neighbour. All life goals checked off now.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#160

Post by asoneth »

steveBK123 wrote: post #112
nradov wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Toyota Land Cruiser has been a popular car in certain upper-class circles. At $87k it's fairly expensive, but it doesn't look expensive.

Precisely! Not to mention a fully specced out Tesla Model 3 is $80k and Model Y is now.. $90k, and the tax credits are basically gone! I remember getting a pretty well configured Model 3 for $50k after tax incentives in their first year of production. For ~$70k you used to be able to get a Model S, which now STARTS at $105k. Easily configurable into the $130-160k range now.. insane.

Agreed that they are expensive cars that have gotten even more expensive over the last decade.

But comparing absolute numbers for a car you bought five years ago may be misleading because the majority of the increase is likely due to inflation.

Back of the envelope math: If you were in CA and got $7.5k federal and $2.5k state credits that means the Model 3 you bought in 2017 was ~$60k or ~$73k in today's dollars. If it's now $80k then that's a real price increase of ~$7k in today's dollars.

That's certainly an increase, but making an expensive car slightly more expensive doesn't seem particularly insane to me.

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