Maybe a bit OT: The other day I read an interview with a local guy in his 20s that struck gold with crypto, he'd invest something like $20k, and turned it into $40M. He basically went all in on one alt-coin before the marked exploded late last year, and the coin went up 2000x. When asked about it, he of course came up with a narrative that this wasn't just dumb luck. He had had worked hard for those $20k, and he had…
Granted that based on probability alone he just got lucky but from the details of the story it's not possible to be certain of that. If he can offer a narrative about why and how he knew such a move would have such a result and the narrative fits with reality, then how is he not correct? Yes you can get both lucky and tragically unlucky when it comes to investments, but that doesnt mean there's no such thing as a rat…
Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal
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Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal
#42Maybe a bit OT: The other day I read an interview with a local guy in his 20s that struck gold with crypto, he'd invest something like $20k, and turned it into $40M. He basically went all in on one alt-coin before the marked exploded late last year, and the coin went up 2000x. When asked about it, he of course came up with a narrative that this wasn't just dumb luck. He had had worked hard for those $20k, and he had…
Yes, it's incredibly risky but at least it has a better chance than playing the lottery. Like Nassim Taleb says, bet on things with a limited downside and unlimited upside. And if you don't try, nothing will happen.
Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal
#43I’m not sure it’s a deliberate form of counter signaling, but… I see a lot of people emulate the antisocial or neurotic traits of the highly successful based on the faulty premise that these are causal for their success. Will doing heroin make you a rock star? Might it be that Steve Jobs and Elon Musk succeeded not because of but in spite of some of their antisocial traits? Maybe you should emulate their work ethic a…
Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal
#44Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal
#45One of the best examples of counter-signaling was Kim Kardashian at the Met Gala. She wore a black dress that covered her from head to toe, including her face. It was kind of a statement that “even my silhouette is famous”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Kardashian
Even after reading that I don't actually know what this woman is well-known for.
Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal
#46Maybe a bit OT: The other day I read an interview with a local guy in his 20s that struck gold with crypto, he'd invest something like $20k, and turned it into $40M. He basically went all in on one alt-coin before the marked exploded late last year, and the coin went up 2000x. When asked about it, he of course came up with a narrative that this wasn't just dumb luck. He had had worked hard for those $20k, and he had…
Rich people never want to acknowledge their luck, because it doesn't fit the "self-made" narrative. edit: to please the pedants, I should have said "many rich people", as to not imply "all". My fault.
Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal
#47This tidbit reminds me of a similar anecdote (that my experience aligns with) re: the modern upper class that wearing a $2k Rolex or driving a $70k BMW is frowned upon. But instead they have eccentric "hobbies" requiring $10ks of of equipment, inclusive of "needing" $10k viking stove/range, and $10k subzero fridge/freezer in your kitchen because you are a "foodie" and doing a $500k home Reno because you have good architectural taste and style. They probably still own a $70k Volvo (or now Tesla) anyway :-). In these scenarios I think it's because the $2k watch or $70k car is too easily attained by lower classes that they are no longer considered signals by the upper classes. However blowing $500k renovating a perfectly livable home, or $10k on an appliance you could spend as little as $1k on.. is not.
Another countersignal that the article points in the direction of is level of professional vs casual attire in the workplace. My friends and I are far enough in our careers that personally I've worn sneakers to work for the last 10 years, no business slacks, and sporadically tuck in my collared shirt. The last round of job searching doing zoom interviews, I wore my hoodie for half the calls. If I had done this while job searching out of college, during my internship, or at my first job.. I would not be where I am today.
Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal
#48Seems decently researched but I don’t know why the author felt compelled to add unsubstantiated and totally unnecessary hyperbole about humans only having succeeded because of imitating the whole shebang. It doesn’t even make sense!
Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal
#49This analysis assumes that the successful person who engages in an activity is doing so because they are “signaling”, not just because they like to do the activity. When they do something to signal, it’s almost certain that the successful person’s “success” is driven by their ability to get others to copy their behavior, or put another way, they’re selling the activity or things related to it.
Edit: Examples are all over, but think of any product that a celebrity sells. (Heck, people even read HN because pg told them that smart, interesting people do it ;-) )
Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal
#50Maybe a bit OT: The other day I read an interview with a local guy in his 20s that struck gold with crypto, he'd invest something like $20k, and turned it into $40M. He basically went all in on one alt-coin before the marked exploded late last year, and the coin went up 2000x. When asked about it, he of course came up with a narrative that this wasn't just dumb luck. He had had worked hard for those $20k, and he had…
Seems reductionist to equate buying low and selling at peak to buying a lottery ticket. But so it does to claim hard work has been the main reason why financial investors profit