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Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

thetimes.co.uk

71–80 of 205 posts

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#71

Call it what you want. Russia is switching from export to internal consumption. Getting something like 30 years mortgage on house, was unheard of until recently. If West can run quantitative easing for 15 years, why not Russia?

Because you cannot eat money, or live in money. A country can QE forever, but this will not put food on the table or shoes on people's feet. If people want those things, they must either be produced or imported. QE doesn't help with either of those. Production is a physical act, not a monetary one. And if you want to import from somewhere, then you need that nation's currency to do so. Which means that in turn you mu…

> Which means that in turn you must have produced something to exchange for that currency.

and Russia still perfectly sells oil and gas.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#72
post #11

One reason that sanctions haven't had an apparent immediate effect is that the Russian economy was already in a slow downward spiral. The Russian economy peaked in 2013 and has been going down hill since then. The Russian society has already been hardened by these 9 years of "hard times" and not to forget the much harder times in the 1990s. Another reason is that Western companies stopped their sales in Russia while…

It would be so fun to be in IT in Russia right now. Software and film piracy is now completely legal because, if they aren’t selling it, it’s not theft. I could put pirated Windows on every workstation with no fear…

You buy the licenses for legal insurrance, then you of course use cracked software. The DRM in most products is downright dysfunctional, they want you to use warez to get out of any liability clause. So the incentives are there to make the most horrific software that money can buy.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#73
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They're running out of things like missles and bombs though IIRC? No they aren’t. New York Times on 12/5: “Russian Cruise Missiles Were Made Just Months Ago Despite Sanctions”

IIRC North Korea has them too, maybe they gave them the tech? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58540915 They tend to steal from everyone, test a bit, then trade what they have as their people starve.

The Russian missile in question, the KH-101, has been in service for ten years, is air-launched rather than ground-launched, and has at least twice the range of the North Korean missile described in that article.

Why would Russia need tech from North Korea anyway? North Korean technology is based on what the Soviet Union shared with them.

As far as I can tell, Russia has strong domestic production capabilities for even their most advanced cruise missiles such as the hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#74
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because nukes. If Ukrainians push into Russia (which to be clear, they can’t for many other reasons aside from weapons), Russia would launch nukes and that could make the entirety of Europe uninhabitable for centuries.

I've tried to stay mostly ignorant about the war for my own health - what has been released or talked about that makes people think Putin will launch nukes and destroy a bunch of land and cause untold death and destruction to numerous countries not involved in the conflict? I'm not trying to be facetious or incidious with my question, feels like I need to worry more about paying bills and keeping my family fed but wi…

> Putin will launch nukes and destroy a bunch of land and cause untold death and destruction to numerous countries not involved in the conflict?

Putin will nuke hot areas in Ukraine, decapitating Ukrainian forces. No other countries will be involved.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#75

Call it what you want. Russia is switching from export to internal consumption. Getting something like 30 years mortgage on house, was unheard of until recently. If West can run quantitative easing for 15 years, why not Russia?

Because the US dollar is the reserve currency of the world. This won't work if you're an isolated economy with a barely traded currency.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#76
The simplest version of the story is this: Russia has gained tremendously thanks to the unusually high price of oil. Should the price of oil fall back the average of the last 10 years, then Russia's situation will appear far more precarious.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#77
Do not ever forget what was promised: Russia in rubble in two weeks from sanctions and Russia out of missiles in two weeks. This was the "negotiated" social contract upon which quality of life in other parts of Europe was thrown into a dog shit trash fire. These kinds of articles are just not-so subtle cover for the once again failure of leaders here, and moving the goalposts and rewriting of history.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#78
post #77

Do not ever forget what was promised: Russia in rubble in two weeks from sanctions and Russia out of missiles in two weeks. This was the "negotiated" social contract upon which quality of life in other parts of Europe was thrown into a dog shit trash fire. These kinds of articles are just not-so subtle cover for the once again failure of leaders here, and moving the goalposts and rewriting of history.

Do you have sources for those claims? I don't remember hearing either - my recollection is that there were warnings that sanctions would have some effect but take a long time to work, and the Russian economy would be supported by China and India, among others.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#79

Call it what you want. Russia is switching from export to internal consumption. Getting something like 30 years mortgage on house, was unheard of until recently. If West can run quantitative easing for 15 years, why not Russia?

Because the US dollar is the reserve currency of the world. This won't work if you're an isolated economy with a barely traded currency.

Sounds like "policy tricks."

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#80
> The reality is that Russia is losing the economic war, just as it is losing the war on the battlefield. Real incomes in Russia are already estimated to be 10 per cent lower today than in 2014, when Putin first invaded Ukraine.

I imagine the average American is doing worse than that since then.

In 2014 USA, things for me and my peers were finally stabilizing after 5 years of financial crisis, housing busts, horrible job market, etc.

Inflation was low, I'd finally found a fair employer at a decent salary, had bought a late model car (3 year old Acura) for about $25K, and my investments had recovered and were now growing again in the stock market. Housing was still modestly priced after the bubble crash, interest rates were low for buyers, but rent prices were doable, with plenty of inventory, too, for those not yet ready to buy.

And there were dozens of 2nd and 3rd tier cities in which any standard worker would be able to move to and likely obtain the "American Dream" of home ownership, a couple cars, etc.

Let's compare that to now:

My salary has grown by about 25% in absolute dollars (2-3% corporate raises don't add up so quickly). Meanwhile, I still own my 2010 car, and it would cost about $40K today to replace it with a similarly low-miled used one, or $50K+ if new. That's if I could even get one since it seems there is now a perpetual "chip shortage."

The same apartment I rented in 2014 would cost at least 50% more now, though probably closer to double with all the extra fees. The same starter homes I looked at then are double in absolute dollars, and at current 7%+ interest rates, might be closer to 3x as expensive per monthly payment. And this isn't just in places like NYC or Bay Area or Miami Beach. Once "cheap" cities like Phoenix and Nashville are now just as expensive, relative to salaries, as the over-crowded and desirable coastal areas were last generation.

Everything else is way MORE expensive, especially food. I eat out less. Food quality is generally lower or smaller portioned.

I take less vacations as airfare seems to have doubled in price in the last 5 years. And let's not even get into health insurance, which has also doubled in price since 2014 (I now have a $3K deductible with the same premium costs as before, thanks to Obamacare).

My retirement savings have lost over 1/3 of their value in the last year.

So Russians should know that it's not just them suffering. Most of us in the west have taken a 10% hit to standard of living in just the last 3 years, IMO.

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