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Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

thetimes.co.uk

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Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#41

Post by rich_sasha »

adamsmith143 wrote: post #37
rich_sasha wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends to whom. To countries far away, but wary of, dunno, nukes going into the hands of terrorists, sure. To countries bordering Russia who are intimidated and threatened (or invaded!) on a continuous basis, this is a definite improvement.

Not so sure about this. That a handful of aggressive and hungry Russo-Warlords with Nukes is any improvement over Putin.

Russia seems to be throwing it's entire war machine at Ukraine. It deployed units, and conscripts, from all over Russia, including the Far East (in fact sourcing conscripts predominantly from poorer regions, and preferentially not ethnic Russians). Chop that machine into 4 or 5 pieces and it's far less scary.

Even the nukes, scary as they could be, are less of a threat when the individual actors are smaller and weaker. They may not even be able to maintain these nukes. And even if they are capable of using them, they are at a more precarious position than eg. Putin at the helm of Mighty Russia.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#43

Post by trasz2 »

NovemberWhiskey wrote: post #6
eloff wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's millions[1] between the number the have been drafted and the number that have fled, and that's taking the Kremlin at their word about how many people they drafted. Also Russia has a brewing demographics collapse, similar to what Japan is experiencing. This is going to royally fuck them for the next 50 years. I think the Ukraine invasion might be the beginning of the end for Russia as we know it, I wouldn't be su…

A disorderly failure of the Russian state is pretty much one of the nightmare scenarios.

It's also the only scenario that guarantees long-term stability. Also, it's not like we've hadn't been through this twenty years ago already, and the result was quite good.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#44

Post by rich_sasha »

vlovich123 wrote: post #40
rich_sasha wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends to whom. To countries far away, but wary of, dunno, nukes going into the hands of terrorists, sure. To countries bordering Russia who are intimidated and threatened (or invaded!) on a continuous basis, this is a definite improvement.

I doubt that countries bordering Russia are keen to have failed chaotic states with economic problems on their borders. The refugee situation that will create is pretty intense.

I will reiterate. Baltic states, Poland, Ukraine, Georgia, are constantly harassed and reminded that Russia doesn't really see them as sovereign states. They fly bombers into their airspaces (oops), deploys military manoeuvres at their borders, rambles about aiming their nukes at the capital cities. It actually invaded Ukraine for the second time in a decade! And even as this is all going on, Russia happily says, "hey Latvia, or Finland, you guys better stand to attention or you are next".

Refugees on the border suddenly seems like a nice problem to have.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#45

Post by trasz2 »

vlovich123 wrote: post #40
rich_sasha wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends to whom. To countries far away, but wary of, dunno, nukes going into the hands of terrorists, sure. To countries bordering Russia who are intimidated and threatened (or invaded!) on a continuous basis, this is a definite improvement.

I doubt that countries bordering Russia are keen to have failed chaotic states with economic problems on their borders. The refugee situation that will create is pretty intense.

>I doubt that countries bordering Russia are keen to have failed chaotic states with economic problems on their borders.

As opposed to a single, stronger failed state with economic problems?

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#46

Post by elurg »

vlovich123 wrote: post #40
rich_sasha wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends to whom. To countries far away, but wary of, dunno, nukes going into the hands of terrorists, sure. To countries bordering Russia who are intimidated and threatened (or invaded!) on a continuous basis, this is a definite improvement.

I doubt that countries bordering Russia are keen to have failed chaotic states with economic problems on their borders. The refugee situation that will create is pretty intense.

Refugees are easier to handle than tanks.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#47

Post by greggarious »

IgorPartola wrote: post #30
greggarious wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying they should, I'm picturing a situation where troops enter Ukraine then retreat to safety repeatedly. I'll shut up now, I try to focus on policy positions, not the positions of troops :-)

Ah that. Sort of. Ukraine has carried out a few deep strikes inside Russia so far. Military targets are not off limits even hundreds of miles inside Russian borders. But a ground assault is a different thing because then yes Russia can claim that it is being invaded and resort to nukes. But this also isn’t necessary to win the war.

>Military targets are not off limits even hundreds of miles inside Russian borders. But a ground assault is a different thing because then yes Russia can claim that it is being invaded

Ah gotcha. My thinking was why make them use consumer drones? (But I shouldn't joke about serious things when I'm not an expert on these matters)

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#49

Post by greggarious »

xtian wrote: post #38
greggarious wrote: post #9

They're running out of things like missles and bombs though IIRC? Why don't we honor the Budapest agreement and let the Ukrainians finish off Putin's regime with US made weapons if we are going to play word games about the difference between NATO and a firm and unambiguous promise to defend a nation if they give up their nuclear weapons? The people of Russia don't seem to want this war, they are conscripted. (From wh…

> They're running out of things like missles and bombs though IIRC? No they aren’t. New York Times on 12/5: “Russian Cruise Missiles Were Made Just Months Ago Despite Sanctions”

IIRC North Korea has them too, maybe they gave them the tech?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58540915

They tend to steal from everyone, test a bit, then trade what they have as their people starve.

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