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Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

thetimes.co.uk

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Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#51
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, and consider the effect that it has on the rouble: with lots of sales (of mostly energy) but nowhere to spend that money the rouble is actually likely to appreciate rather than depreciate. I'm referring here to the premature celebration of the "death of the rouble", you may remember this narrative. This is still a bit obfuscated by the ongoing sale of the Russian foreign reserves (the ~50% that wasn't frozen).…

Heh. I sometimes wonder how vulnerable the US would be to a squeeze appreciating USD. You could probably even get large parts of the US political class to go along with it, as (in the short term) they'd be benefiting relative to their countrymen.

Very invulnerable.

This whole “Squeeze” thing is a function of liquidity. The reason that stocks like GME and AMC can experience the effects of a short squeeze is because of how relatively illiquid they are (i.e. point $1bn of consumer capital toward a $3bn stock with thin trading and you can do wild things).

The USD is the currency in which nearly all middle eastern oil is priced, the currency in which $16tn of consumer spending is done, quadrillions of stock trades, etc etc etc.

There’s no individual or group who can point enough capital at that to make for a squeeze, and even if they could, then why wouldn’t the treasury take advantage and start printing more dollars (see: Hertz issuing new shares and ruining wallstreetbet’s day)

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#52

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> Sanctions only affects the people, not the governments, you just help develop an anti-western sentiment across the affected regions as well as hurting the life of innocent families

Bombing also affects people and hurts the life of innocent families.

By your logic bombing is a better option than sanctions, as it also affects governments as well. /s

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#53

Quoted post unavailable.

> Visiting the Maidan on December 5, she handed out cookies to demonstrators and expressed support for their cause.

Handing out cookies to people demonstrating against a pro-Russian government! Yes, I can totally see how this is morally equivalent to cluster bombing maternity hospitals.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#54

Call it what you want. Russia is switching from export to internal consumption. Getting something like 30 years mortgage on house, was unheard of until recently. If West can run quantitative easing for 15 years, why not Russia?

Because people want dollars

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#55
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A disorderly failure of the Russian state is pretty much one of the nightmare scenarios.

It's also the only scenario that guarantees long-term stability. Also, it's not like we've hadn't been through this twenty years ago already, and the result was quite good.

How does it guarantee long-term stability?

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be so fun to be in IT in Russia right now. Software and film piracy is now completely legal because, if they aren’t selling it, it’s not theft. I could put pirated Windows on every workstation with no fear…

>It would be so fun to be in IT in Russia right now. Software and film piracy is now completely legal because I'm in EU, not in Russia and still pirate stuff. Granted, it's all for private use. I think what you mean is that now companies in Russia are free to pirate everything for professional/corporate use as well.

Afaik, it would not be exceptional in Russia even before war. And not just Russia for that matter.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#57

Quoted post unavailable.

> Sanctions only affects the people, not the governments,

Western sanctions have demonstrably prevented the Russians from obtaining equipment vital for their military-industrial complex. Right now there were supposed to be hundreds of Armatas and SU-57s, but all the Russians have are a dozen prototypes of each.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#58

Quoted post unavailable.

Quoted post unavailable.

Are you referring to [1]? Cause to me it seems like Russia has been given every chance to establish peace. Peace for an act of aggression Russia initiated because they didn’t like that Ukraine was pro-US and considering joining NATO (which would have put a critical naval port under US control).

Is the “baiting” aspect the US courting Ukraine to be in NATO? That seems rather mild considering that’s a sane strategy given how Russia under Putin has unprovoked invaded neighbors in the past (see Georgia). Putin has also robbed the Russian people through his oligarchs and rampant corruption and acted like a despot reinstalling a dictatorship in effect within Russia, killing or imprisoning anyone who didn’t bow the knee or threatened to expose him. He’s also struck out at the US by trying to sow discord and confusion by having the US elections hacked. Not sure why you’re painting Russia here as the poor innocent victim here, but this line that the US is the cause of the war in Ukraine is kind of laughable when you look at the totality of Putin’s career.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements

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