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TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

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Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#261
post #57

This + the recent news that Apple is planning to diversify production out of China (1) is hard not to read into regarding the US' view of where US/China relations are heading . . . any geopolitical armchair experts have a view? (1) https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-china-factory-protests-fo...

You don't need to be an expert to see the writing on the wall. The 2nd in power will always want to be first. Kingdoms are built and die on power transitions and China has appeared desperate to become the leading super power for as long as I can remember.

edit: Can ignore this comment, I see an earlier thread that discusses water with lots of replies. Sorry about that.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mitigating that environmental impact is what makes rare earth mining so costly. China is quickly learning that environmental remediation [1] is much more expensive and their appetite for destroying their environment for profit is quickly disappearing, especially as the middle class grows and moves up Maslow’s hierarchy. From the article: > “The rare earth industry is a pillar industry here in Ganzhou and we must keep…

Is the environmental impact actually significant enough to warrant consideration in this circumstance? I see environmental impact talked about a lot when it comes to mining operations but I don't think anyone outside activists cares if the area around a mining operation is impacted as long as a town isn't poisoned or something else with human impact and usually the "environmental impact" is just the local ecology and…

> Is the environmental impact actually significant enough to warrant consideration in this circumstance?

Abso-fucking-lutely! *Smack* The answer to that question is always a resounding yes when we're talking about massive industrial processes. The qualification "as long as a town isn't poisoned" is fantasy at these scales. Most mining facilities require tons of water so they're built near waterways and those are almost always populated downstream.

The tailing ponds contain very toxic waste that, if breached, will basically salt the earth around them and anything downstream. The tailings from a much less toxic processes like iron mining, for example, caused a massive ecological disaster in Brazil when the Mariana dam holding back millions of tons of mining waste broke [1]. It followed the Rio Doce to the Atlantic polluting over 600 kilometers of waterways along the way, affecting over a million people. Five years later people are still getting sick, fish stocks are way down, and farming along the river is crippled [2].

A few years later another dam in Brazil broke, once again contaminating hundreds of kilometers of waterways [3]. The Ok Tedi disaster in Papau New Guniea [4]. The Marcopper disaster in the Phillipines that still hasn't really been cleaned up decades later [5]. Aberfan in the UK [6]. History is full of these kinds of tailing disasters effecting millions of people, often the poorest with the least recourse.

Edit, forgot to add final point: Those Ganzhou tailing ponds are much more toxic than those above from lesser metals and coal. They're dangerous to approach without full PPE and much of the surrounding area has been polluted to the point where nothing will grow without remediation. Even assuming there's no accident, the environmental damage is already significant enough to cause political pressure in an authoritarian regime.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariana_dam_disaster

[2] https://news.mongabay.com/2020/11/deadly-anniversary-rio-doc...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brumadinho_dam_disaster

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ok_Tedi_environmental_disaster

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcopper_mining_disaster

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberfan_disaster

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#263

Does anyone else wonder how the water issues that we are seeing become more pervasive in the south west will impact long term investment? I have family that lives in PHX so I'm familiar with the area and much of the development. Though I cannot help but conclude that at some point water shortages become a massive problem in that area. My naive understanding is fab plants recycle (re-use?) much of their water but igno…

My understanding is also that fabs can mostly re-use water. I don't know as much about AZ but in NV and CA most of the water is "wasted" on low-value agriculture and doesn't go to people.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#264

Onshoring is a logical result of improved automation. When labor costs lessen, transportation and logistics become the primary concern. Wouldn’t be surprised if 100 years from now most final good assembly is done locally. Of course sometimes raw materials and inputs are more expensive to transport than the finished good, so there will always be cases where long distance transportation of finished products is still pr…

Huh? This is re-shoring by political influence (probably pressuring Taiwan/TSMC) and financial incentives. Both TSMC and Samsung[1] are buildings Fabs in the US. Both Taiwan and South Korea are dependent on US military for their own existence. This is anti-competitiveness at its best.

[1]: https://www.anandtech.com/show/16483/samsung-in-the-usa-a-17...

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#265
post #158
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do these plants not require tons of water?

Arizona has the reputation of being a desert, but in reality it is a state that is half-desert and half-mountain, and has a tons of water. Enough to waste on ubiquitous golf courses and alfalfa farms. There is a canal system taking the water from the mountains to the drier south where people live. But the population pressures are realigning who pays what for the water now, so I expect the alfalfa farms are going to g…

> Arizona has the reputation of being a desert, but in reality it is a state that is half-desert and half-mountain, and has a tons of water.

The mountainous areas are 'high deserts'. Most of Arizona's water is underground. It's being pumped out faster than it's replaced. Old wells go dry all the time, because newer wells are deeper.

"The Sonoran Desert's bi-seasonal rainfall pattern results in more plant species than any other desert in the world. The Sonoran Desert includes plant genera and species from the agave family, palm family, cactus family, legume family, and numerous others." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonoran_Desert#Flora

> There is a canal system taking the water from the mountains to the drier south where people live.

The Central Arizona Project pumps water straight east from Lake Havasu (738 ft elevation) to Phoenix (1086 ft elevation), then south to Tucson (2388 ft elevation).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Arizona_Project / https://www.cap-az.com/water/cap-system/water-operations/sys...

The Salt River Project [SRP] buffers water from the rivers that run through the Phoenix area, and diverts the rivers into canals for delivery to the Phoenix area. Before the dams, the Salt and Verde rivers ran year-round. SRP modernized/expanded the Hohokam's ancient canals.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salt_River_Project#History

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would make more sense to put the mega-fabs where electricity is cheapest in the Americas, and that certainly isn't Arizona.

> would make more sense to put the mega-fabs where electricity is cheapest in the Americas, and that certainly isn't Arizona Geologically stable. And at least for business, politically stable. Same reason Walt Disney is frozen in Phoenix [1]. [1] https://www.alcor.org/

The Disney thing is an urban legend, right?

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who makes those expensive machines? Are they made in-house by companies like TSMC? Or are they purchased from others? And whats the geopolitics of that part of the supply chain (made in taiwan? made in china? made elsewhere?)

In many ways, ASML: https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems

Interesting 18min CNBC tour of ASML and their unique technology: https://youtu.be/iSVHp6CAyQ8

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#268
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really you need to understand your opponent's utility function before immediately leaping to making summary judgments that China is not acting in its own interest. For example, knowing that mainland China and Taiwan are the remnants of a civil war, in which mainland China has wanted to absorb Taiwan long before it had any chip fabs, as China views itself as the nation of the Chinese people as a whole, with Taiwan a h…

[flagged]

Ban me if you want but this is the dumbest comment reply I have ever seen. Chatbots regularly display more intelligence than this. I feel bad for anybody who has to interact with you in real life.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> would make more sense to put the mega-fabs where electricity is cheapest in the Americas, and that certainly isn't Arizona Geologically stable. And at least for business, politically stable. Same reason Walt Disney is frozen in Phoenix [1]. [1] https://www.alcor.org/

The Disney thing is an urban legend, right?

> Disney thing is an urban legend, right?

I’ve heard the claim repeated by an Alcor employee. But they may have been repeating a myth. (Alcor definitely exists, and claims it chose Phoenix for the aforementioned reasons.)

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I prefer it as written, because the additional information of timeframe for measurement indicates that the author is not talking about momentary/peak power.

Which indicates the author knows nothing about how semiconductor fabs use power. Power usage is stable with a few percent...and 100MW is really on the low side for this fab. If all 6 phases are completed as they are expected to be...it's more like 250MW.

I think we can forgive the author for the low estimate considering that this project didn't exist publicly at the time of writing.

How does power usage remain stable in a fab? Please say more about how that works.

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