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TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

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Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not during the night and not when it is cloudy. Averages are vey bad numbers for something which is on 24/7.

Electricity usage is much, much lower at night in Arizona because everyone turns AC off due to temperature drop. Plenty of baseload generators that can be better utilized at night with increased manufacturing.

Kinda. Depends on the season. In the summer, its still 80 degrees at night in Phoenix.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#242
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean the Colorado River? The one that flows through the Grand Canyon? The canyon in Arizona?

Yes, the Colorado River whose headwaters comes from the state of Colorado.

That's kind of a ridiculous way to claim "ownership" of water. Especially water that naturally flows into the state.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For water. Its proven we can build many thousand miles of pipeline for 10s of billions. Which is vastly cheap enough and sufficient to solve this problem. Much cheaper than alternatives

Where is the water coming from? It’s not coming from the Great Lakes or the Mississippi River. Where are these enormous volumes of untapped water that we can pump over the Rocky Mountains?

How about the Columbia? Average discharge is 265,000 cfs, which has been pretty consistent over the past 100+ years.[1] That's approximately 200 million acre feet just flowing into the Pacific every year.

For comparison, the Phoenix metro area uses 2.3 million acre feet of water per year (40% of which is used in agriculture).[2] So a bit over 1% of the Columbia's annual flow.

Another comparison: the Colorado "in its natural state" averaged just 22,500 cfs, less than 10% of the Columbia.[3]

I'm not saying that piping water from Oregon to the southwest is a good idea, but it's not as if we don't have water in the west. It's just a lot further north than most of the population centers.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia_River#Discharge [2] https://askabiologist.asu.edu/questions/how-much-water-are-w... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_River#Discharge

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#244
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Should people live in an area with no water? It feels like we have so many problems caused by people just not living in the locations in the USA where there is lots of rainfall and water. I have tons of water, my state just uses lakes filled by rainwater. We make electricity with it too. https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Average_precipitat... I always find it interesting that people keep cramming into the wes…

The problem is less people living in areas with no water and more people growing water-intensive food in areas with no water. 80% of water usage in California, which has 40 million residents, is agricultural.

No post body was provided.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#245

Well that seems significant. Article says the chips in the 2nd fabs will be better than the first. And will meet all domestic US demand. Not sure what all that includes. I wonder how domestic the full supply chain is. If the US is relying on China for rare earth metals or something.

I recall reading that modern chips use argon-neon-flourine lasers, (roughly 75% of the world's neon goes into the semiconductor industry) and ~50% of the world's neon comes from Ukraine. This is because the Haber process, necessary for fertilizer, involves industrial quantities of forced air, and the USSR put adapters on their Haber process plants for gathering inert gases for titanium welding back in the 1970's, and…

If 50% of the world's neon comes from Ukraine, then 50% comes from outside Ukraine.

According to [1] 50.1% comes from the top 3 countries. And the worldwide market size is about $220 MM/year.

Let's say that these TSMC plants will consume fully 5% of one year's worth of worldwide production (this is an ultraconservative estimate, as the whole computer industry's share of the neon gas market is 50%). That would be about $10 MM. Even if the neon gas price spikes up by a factor of 10 or 20, it wouldn't move the needle when it comes to a $40 BN investment.

[1] https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/neon-gas-market

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#246
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed, but rare earth mining also has negative environmental impact even above and beyond normal mining operations. The US is partly paying China to outsource the environmental devastation.

Mitigating that environmental impact is what makes rare earth mining so costly. China is quickly learning that environmental remediation [1] is much more expensive and their appetite for destroying their environment for profit is quickly disappearing, especially as the middle class grows and moves up Maslow’s hierarchy. From the article: > “The rare earth industry is a pillar industry here in Ganzhou and we must keep…

Is the environmental impact actually significant enough to warrant consideration in this circumstance? I see environmental impact talked about a lot when it comes to mining operations but I don't think anyone outside activists cares if the area around a mining operation is impacted as long as a town isn't poisoned or something else with human impact and usually the "environmental impact" is just the local ecology and the emissions involved. People expect the area around a mine to not be very nice.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't onshoring - onshoring would be moving to Taiwan - this is the Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation.

It’s onshoring from the perspective of an American company that contracts out to TSMC fabs, such as Apple, AMD, nVidia, Marvell, Qualcomm, or other major TSMC clients. Sony is also a TSMC client so if TSMC built fabs in Japan, Sony would be onshoring.

    Hsinchu, Taiwan, R.O.C., Nov. 9, 2021 - TSMC (TWSE: 2330, NYSE: TSM) and Sony Semiconductor Solutions Corporation (“SSS”) today jointly announced that TSMC will establish a subsidiary, Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing, Inc. (“JASM”), in Kumamoto, Japan to provide foundry service with initial technology of 22/28-nanometer processes to address strong global market demand for specialty technologies, with SSS participating as a minority shareholder.
Ref: https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2880

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recall reading that modern chips use argon-neon-flourine lasers, (roughly 75% of the world's neon goes into the semiconductor industry) and ~50% of the world's neon comes from Ukraine. This is because the Haber process, necessary for fertilizer, involves industrial quantities of forced air, and the USSR put adapters on their Haber process plants for gathering inert gases for titanium welding back in the 1970's, and…

If 50% of the world's neon comes from Ukraine, then 50% comes from outside Ukraine. According to [1] 50.1% comes from the top 3 countries. And the worldwide market size is about $220 MM/year. Let's say that these TSMC plants will consume fully 5% of one year's worth of worldwide production (this is an ultraconservative estimate, as the whole computer industry's share of the neon gas market is 50%). That would be abou…

I've had to look this up because everyone also brings up this point without any proper details.

The exact numbers are not known. It's supposedly 45%-55% (at the beginning people were claiming 70%). It's limited to 2 factories. One in Odessa and one in Mariupol.

Both of them shut down somewhere at the start of this whole endeavour. The Mariupol one is already in the hands of Russians. It wasn't that close to Azovstal, so it's due to reopen. The one in Odessa will not reopen until the Russians either take it or Ukraine agrees to the deal judging by all the missile strikes. But for the short term future its out of commission.

The fundamental part here is this:

If this is really such a big deal as everyone claims it is, then people will inevitably have to find a compromise with Russia.

But I will repeat again one thing that people don't seem to grasp. Arounds 30% of the worlds commodities are exported by Russia, another ~30% are exported by the US. The difference between these two is that Russia exports its own commodities and the US exports not only its own, but also its "little colonies" like Trinidad and Tobago commodities. You cannot just turn off the tap on 30% of the worlds commodities.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If 50% of the world's neon comes from Ukraine, then 50% comes from outside Ukraine. According to [1] 50.1% comes from the top 3 countries. And the worldwide market size is about $220 MM/year. Let's say that these TSMC plants will consume fully 5% of one year's worth of worldwide production (this is an ultraconservative estimate, as the whole computer industry's share of the neon gas market is 50%). That would be abou…

I've had to look this up because everyone also brings up this point without any proper details. The exact numbers are not known. It's supposedly 45%-55% (at the beginning people were claiming 70%). It's limited to 2 factories. One in Odessa and one in Mariupol. Both of them shut down somewhere at the start of this whole endeavour. The Mariupol one is already in the hands of Russians. It wasn't that close to Azovstal,…

Alternatively Russia could fuck off and leave.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've had to look this up because everyone also brings up this point without any proper details. The exact numbers are not known. It's supposedly 45%-55% (at the beginning people were claiming 70%). It's limited to 2 factories. One in Odessa and one in Mariupol. Both of them shut down somewhere at the start of this whole endeavour. The Mariupol one is already in the hands of Russians. It wasn't that close to Azovstal,…

Alternatively Russia could fuck off and leave.

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