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TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

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Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If 50% of the world's neon comes from Ukraine, then 50% comes from outside Ukraine. According to [1] 50.1% comes from the top 3 countries. And the worldwide market size is about $220 MM/year. Let's say that these TSMC plants will consume fully 5% of one year's worth of worldwide production (this is an ultraconservative estimate, as the whole computer industry's share of the neon gas market is 50%). That would be abou…

I've had to look this up because everyone also brings up this point without any proper details. The exact numbers are not known. It's supposedly 45%-55% (at the beginning people were claiming 70%). It's limited to 2 factories. One in Odessa and one in Mariupol. Both of them shut down somewhere at the start of this whole endeavour. The Mariupol one is already in the hands of Russians. It wasn't that close to Azovstal,…

Oh, but you can. You see, there's this mechanism called price. If there's not enough of something, prices go up, and sources that were uneconomical become all of a sudden profitable.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If 50% of the world's neon comes from Ukraine, then 50% comes from outside Ukraine. According to [1] 50.1% comes from the top 3 countries. And the worldwide market size is about $220 MM/year. Let's say that these TSMC plants will consume fully 5% of one year's worth of worldwide production (this is an ultraconservative estimate, as the whole computer industry's share of the neon gas market is 50%). That would be abou…

I've had to look this up because everyone also brings up this point without any proper details. The exact numbers are not known. It's supposedly 45%-55% (at the beginning people were claiming 70%). It's limited to 2 factories. One in Odessa and one in Mariupol. Both of them shut down somewhere at the start of this whole endeavour. The Mariupol one is already in the hands of Russians. It wasn't that close to Azovstal,…

> If this is really such a big deal as everyone claims it is, then people will inevitably have to find a compromise with Russia.

Why? Better to defeat them militarily and solve the problem once and for all - even if the world has to get by with slightly less advanced chips for a while.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#253
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

from the wikipedia link - they use sewage/greywater for cooling: > The power plant evaporates the water from the treated sewage from several nearby cities and towns to provide the cooling of the steam that it produces.

This treated sewage is the water that Vegas now provides for general use, and what AZ will need just for its people in about 5 years. Wasting it on chip production is going to go over slightly better than the Saudis wasting groundwater on alfalfa.

They could literally truck Evian water in if they wanted to. Water is extremely cheap compared to just about every substance on earth, and it’s hard to imagine that water costs can be a problem for this type of operation.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#254

Well that seems significant. Article says the chips in the 2nd fabs will be better than the first. And will meet all domestic US demand. Not sure what all that includes. I wonder how domestic the full supply chain is. If the US is relying on China for rare earth metals or something.

[deleted]

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#255
post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've had to look this up because everyone also brings up this point without any proper details. The exact numbers are not known. It's supposedly 45%-55% (at the beginning people were claiming 70%). It's limited to 2 factories. One in Odessa and one in Mariupol. Both of them shut down somewhere at the start of this whole endeavour. The Mariupol one is already in the hands of Russians. It wasn't that close to Azovstal,…

> If this is really such a big deal as everyone claims it is, then people will inevitably have to find a compromise with Russia. Why? Better to defeat them militarily and solve the problem once and for all - even if the world has to get by with slightly less advanced chips for a while.

Solving problems once and for all is very hard. Our track record with that is less than stellar. I agree with you, Russia needs to be defeated. But that is for moral reasons, not because it is overall the best economic solution for the world. Rather in spite of the economic consequences.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#256

Well that seems significant. Article says the chips in the 2nd fabs will be better than the first. And will meet all domestic US demand. Not sure what all that includes. I wonder how domestic the full supply chain is. If the US is relying on China for rare earth metals or something.

The biggest semiconductor equipment manufacturers in the US are Applied Materials, LAM Research and KLA. AMAT is a pretty big company with a wide portfolio of products but it doesn't do lithography which the Dutch company ASML has the only EUV product.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#257

Well that seems significant. Article says the chips in the 2nd fabs will be better than the first. And will meet all domestic US demand. Not sure what all that includes. I wonder how domestic the full supply chain is. If the US is relying on China for rare earth metals or something.

Chips primarily require silicon, which is not a rare-earth metal (it is rather abundant), but it takes a lot of expensive equipment and energy to purify it and slice it into wafers. TSMC currently sources their wafers from Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, Germany and others: https://investor.tsmc.com/static/annualReports/2005/pic/E-3-... (edit: that PDF is out of date, but the wafer supplier list largely isn't)

>> https://www.thermofisher.com/blog/mining/whats-so-rare-about....

Rare earth metals aren't actually rare. They are called that because they were once thought rare.

https://www.thermofisher.com/blog/mining/whats-so-rare-about....

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#259

Well that seems significant. Article says the chips in the 2nd fabs will be better than the first. And will meet all domestic US demand. Not sure what all that includes. I wonder how domestic the full supply chain is. If the US is relying on China for rare earth metals or something.

Chips primarily require silicon, which is not a rare-earth metal (it is rather abundant), but it takes a lot of expensive equipment and energy to purify it and slice it into wafers. TSMC currently sources their wafers from Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, Germany and others: https://investor.tsmc.com/static/annualReports/2005/pic/E-3-... (edit: that PDF is out of date, but the wafer supplier list largely isn't)

I've read Spruce Pine, North Carolina has the world's purest source of natural quartz best suited for making silicon wafers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spruce_Pine_Mining_District

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#260
Does anyone else wonder how the water issues that we are seeing become more pervasive in the south west will impact long term investment? I have family that lives in PHX so I'm familiar with the area and much of the development. Though I cannot help but conclude that at some point water shortages become a massive problem in that area. My naive understanding is fab plants recycle (re-use?) much of their water but ignoring that, fab plants need people and people need water.
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