An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets • Hacker News Board

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#161

Post by bboygravity » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 12:58 PM UTC

ThalesX wrote: post #37

veqq wrote: post #3

Commodity traders and investors are very networked and really like such immediate usage news. Many firms also count trucks/traffic near sites etc. so it isn't surprising to see people respond to this. However, the causation is unclear to me. European gas stocks are at full capacity as is and this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far. A 7% drop is par for course in the last few weeks. An extra piece of bad ne…

> this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far I feel like I'm going crazy as this is not the first time I've seen / heard this argument. What does winter mean? I thought it was the months from December to February. I don't understand the narrative that we're in a warm winter at all . Winter, just like Game of Thrones, is coming.

This "it's a warm winter" is the equivalet of "we're all going to die, there's a new variant".

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#162

Post by thwayunion » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 1:14 PM UTC

nosianu wrote: post #130

thwayunion wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The terminal is for exports from the US (particularly to Europe), and the futures contracts are on US gas prices. Europe desperately needs gas this winter. Markets are pricing in the assumption that the US producers will get great prices from European consumers this winter. If US gas can't get to Europe then the US can't sell that gas at high prices in Europe. Also, additionally, the domestic market will be flooded i…

> Europe desperately needs gas this winter Yes, but consider this: There's ca. $2bn of LNG waiting on LNG tankers around Europe, with many more ships to come. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/6/dozens-of-ships-car... Does not look all that desperate to me any more by this point. The price is higher than before of course, but that is much less of a problem than not having the gas. Besides, isn't that higher pric…

Yes, supply is meeting demand. That's roughly consistent with the (all in all relatively modest) 7.4% price move in us futures, some of which was retraced. If this had happened with less reserve in the system, that price move would've been much higher (and from a much higher base).

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#163

Post by Y-bar » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 1:19 PM UTC

mytailorisrich wrote: post #160

Y-bar wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funnily enough we call that first day date “Midwinter Day” or “middle of the winter-day” here. Maybe it it time to rename it to “Firstwinter Day”! ;)

Yes that's a customary name for the winter solstice. Like Midsummer for the summer solstice. As I wrote, in European tradition 'winter' starts much earlier than the winter solstice because quite obviously the cold and grey months start earlier. I am still puzzled that you never heard of 21st December being the beginning of the (astronomical) winter, like 21st June is beginning of summer, etc.

Why would I ever have heard of it in the first place? It's not in use, not in social settings, not in official settings. Though I have learned it exists, and that some people _really_ like that definition. Reading this thread I am just as puzzled by you being puzzled, because I base my use of it on:

- Official communication (e.g. with tax authorities) use december first as first day of winter quarter.

- Social connotations use either a simplified version of the scientific/metrological definition (e.g. is it cold enough to be called winter yet? E.g. is it warm enough that winter has ended?) or calendar winter (dec-jan-feb).

- Historical reasons, late December is literally called "middle of the winter". Same thing with summer, it officially begins on June 1st and the summer solstice marks the "middle of summer" the same way "Mittwoch" marks the middle of the week.

- In the scientific literature I occasionally read (e.g. meteorology and biology) I read the definition is when the average daily temperature determines winter and never based on astronomy.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#164

Post by geraldwhen » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 1:34 PM UTC

bamboozled wrote: post #159

escalt wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are saying this because so far it has just been much warmer than usual at this time of year, and snow in November wouldn't be the most unusual thing, and most people just assume snow=winter. Some stats of my weather station in South Germany from this year and last year. It is much warmer this year, and even last year was pretty warm Oct 2021: Avg: 8.5°C Min: 0.5°C Max: 22.0°C Oct 2022: Avg: 12.7°C Min: 4.9°C M…

So interestingly, we will see a massive decrease in energy usage from heating thanks for climate change. Actually pretty cool.

Yes, and air conditioning is far more efficient than heating.

https://www.pud3.org/blog/articles--blog/behind-the-scenes-a...

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#165

Post by spywaregorilla » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 4:55 PM UTC

nuclearnice3 wrote: post #94

spywaregorilla wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that one is unable to buy gas does not mean demand for gas has fallen.

The fact that the plant will be unable to buy gas for longer than anticipated should reduce the expected demand for gas. Less demand for gas, lower price for gas. People were pricing gas on some expectation of this plant opening and consuming at some point in the future. If that's pushed back, the price should drop.

That is not how that works. That would reduce the quantity demanded, not the demand. You're describing a supply decrease, which will raise the price.

The mechanic here is the decline of exports to europe making the supply of gas available to us go up, meaning the price for gas in the US will go down.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#166

Post by nuclearnice3 » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 5:12 PM UTC

spywaregorilla wrote: post #165

nuclearnice3 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that the plant will be unable to buy gas for longer than anticipated should reduce the expected demand for gas. Less demand for gas, lower price for gas. People were pricing gas on some expectation of this plant opening and consuming at some point in the future. If that's pushed back, the price should drop.

That is not how that works. That would reduce the quantity demanded, not the demand. You're describing a supply decrease, which will raise the price. The mechanic here is the decline of exports to europe making the supply of gas available to us go up, meaning the price for gas in the US will go down.

Reducing the quantity demanded is reducing the demand.

I don't understand how you reduce "quantity demanded" but not "demand." MAybe you can clarify.

I am describing a demand decrease.

When operational, this plant consumes US gas. It is a demander of gas. If it's staying closed, less demand for US gas.

> The mechanic here is the decline of exports to europe making the supply of gas available to us go up, meaning the price for gas in the US will go down.

This is correct and equivalent to what I'm saying.

Your notion: "If this place doesn't open, less gas is exported to europe, leaving more supply in the US"

My notion: "If this place doesn't open, less gas is bought in the US for export to europe, leaving more supply in the US"

We're on the same page.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#167

Post by dylan604 » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 5:25 PM UTC

twawaaay wrote: post #144

dylan604 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>it is just here the same is happening unintentionally by LNG terminal malfunction. with all that is going on in the world, it would be really easy to give into the conspiracy aspect and say intentional malfunction. we've already seen what has been agreed upon as sabotage to underwater pipelines. why not a terminal like this as well? Edit: I'm in no way pushing this as a thing. Just speculating from past experience i…

I think US needs its partners more than ever and doing things like this on purpose is bound at some point to backfire on them spectacularly. I think rational US government would not do something like this on purpose because there just isn't a whole lot to gain but boy, there is a lot to loose.

ahh, you seem to think that a gov't is the only thing that could do something like this. what if the gas company itself did this? a true conspiracy aficionado would follow the money and ask who benefits the most. hell, a good conspiracy would suggest all of LNG producers got together and chose the specific plant to sabotage so they all benefit.

conspiracies are just so much fun! /s

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#168

Post by hnfong » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 5:38 PM UTC

ThalesX wrote: post #116

EdwardDiego wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just read "the cold time of year" when you see "winter" and you'll get past this.

I'm not trying to 'get past this', I'm trying to express my disbelief at the fact that: A - Things have gotten to the point where we can't talk about a damn season without personal interpretations of it; B - This has seeped into Hacker News, a forum I thought was for more diligent folks.

> can't talk about [...] without personal interpretations

Congratulations, you've discovered a Truth.

Further reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_game_(philosophy)

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#169

Post by saghm » Sat, Nov 12, 2022, 8:06 PM UTC

baq wrote: post #148

luckylion wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe they might have meant that it comes in October/November, not that it's gone by December. It stays "miserable" until spring, with January and February being the coldest and snowiest.

The point is that just freezing cold is not miserable. Autumn weather with days getting very noticeably shorter and it’s cold but not freezing and gray for weeks is quite depressing for many. In contrast, proper winter with snow and days getting longer feels much better even if you need warmer clothes and more heating. This year and next will be a bit different as everyone will be very conscious about gas prices, but…

> The point is that just freezing cold is not miserable

I think the fact that what is most "miserable" to people varies so much is why trying to use the names for seasons to apply to whichever weather you dislike the most is confusing. I prefer the cold to the heat, and I'm much more miserable in hot humid days due to sweating than I am in the cold when I can bundle up and feel mostly fine, but it would be absurd for me to refer to June through September as "winter" in the northern hemisphere based on this.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#170

Post by NikolaNovak » Sun, Nov 13, 2022, 12:32 AM UTC

NikolaNovak wrote: post #146

ThalesX wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not trying to 'get past this', I'm trying to express my disbelief at the fact that: A - Things have gotten to the point where we can't talk about a damn season without personal interpretations of it; B - This has seeped into Hacker News, a forum I thought was for more diligent folks.

I'm normally the pedantic one but I've observed and participated in casual usage of term winter over the last 40 years across 5 countries three languages plus dialects and two continents. This isn't new :) Very large number of people in large number of countries will consider e. G. November "winter". It's cold, it's dark, it's snowing - the informal but practical definitions of "winter". It's not a sign of linguistic…

Update : I've talked to a few of my friends and one point they made was that winters arr not equal everywhere in the colloquial daily sense. It's quite normal and meaningful and easily interpreted to say that "winters are longer in Canada than in North Carolina". Or that Nova Scotia has longer autumn than Ontario. In other words there are places that may have a short winter (I.e. Short period of extreme cold and snow, with very dark nights etc) and places that have long winter. Not astronomically correct but semantically and practically useful.