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An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

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Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#41

Post by [deleted] »

twawaaay wrote: post #18
thwayunion wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The terminal is for exports from the US (particularly to Europe), and the futures contracts are on US gas prices. Europe desperately needs gas this winter. Markets are pricing in the assumption that the US producers will get great prices from European consumers this winter. If US gas can't get to Europe then the US can't sell that gas at high prices in Europe. Also, additionally, the domestic market will be flooded i…

Isn't it true that the price for gas in Europe is very inelastic at the moment (meaning they will pay pretty much any price to get it) and so any shortage of it will cause dramatic price increase? Also, Europe can't easily switch to another source of gas because they have maxed out everything they could. This is basically the reason why OPEC restricts oil production, it is just here the same is happening unintentiona…

[deleted]

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#42

Post by DelightOne »

twawaaay wrote: post #18
thwayunion wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The terminal is for exports from the US (particularly to Europe), and the futures contracts are on US gas prices. Europe desperately needs gas this winter. Markets are pricing in the assumption that the US producers will get great prices from European consumers this winter. If US gas can't get to Europe then the US can't sell that gas at high prices in Europe. Also, additionally, the domestic market will be flooded i…

Isn't it true that the price for gas in Europe is very inelastic at the moment (meaning they will pay pretty much any price to get it) and so any shortage of it will cause dramatic price increase? Also, Europe can't easily switch to another source of gas because they have maxed out everything they could. This is basically the reason why OPEC restricts oil production, it is just here the same is happening unintentiona…

> meaning they will pay pretty much any price to get it

They would buy it at current market rate, which is dropping atm. That's why LNG tankers wait at the coast for a hopefully future higher price.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#43

Post by dylan604 »

twawaaay wrote: post #18
thwayunion wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The terminal is for exports from the US (particularly to Europe), and the futures contracts are on US gas prices. Europe desperately needs gas this winter. Markets are pricing in the assumption that the US producers will get great prices from European consumers this winter. If US gas can't get to Europe then the US can't sell that gas at high prices in Europe. Also, additionally, the domestic market will be flooded i…

Isn't it true that the price for gas in Europe is very inelastic at the moment (meaning they will pay pretty much any price to get it) and so any shortage of it will cause dramatic price increase? Also, Europe can't easily switch to another source of gas because they have maxed out everything they could. This is basically the reason why OPEC restricts oil production, it is just here the same is happening unintentiona…

>it is just here the same is happening unintentionally by LNG terminal malfunction.

with all that is going on in the world, it would be really easy to give into the conspiracy aspect and say intentional malfunction. we've already seen what has been agreed upon as sabotage to underwater pipelines. why not a terminal like this as well?

Edit: I'm in no way pushing this as a thing. Just speculating from past experience in the inner sanctum of groups that would absolutely push an idea like this. Just because we as a forum might not think anything like this would be possible, you absolutely know there are those that will

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#44

Post by staticautomatic »

DelightOne wrote: post #42
twawaaay wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't it true that the price for gas in Europe is very inelastic at the moment (meaning they will pay pretty much any price to get it) and so any shortage of it will cause dramatic price increase? Also, Europe can't easily switch to another source of gas because they have maxed out everything they could. This is basically the reason why OPEC restricts oil production, it is just here the same is happening unintentiona…

> meaning they will pay pretty much any price to get it They would buy it at current market rate, which is dropping atm. That's why LNG tankers wait at the coast for a hopefully future higher price.

Is this not diminished by the buyers hedging?

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#46

Post by nimbius »

thwayunion wrote: post #13
crmd wrote: post #7

Can someone explain why the rumor of cracked pipes and delayed restart of a terminal would cause the futures price to go down? I would think that news of a supply constraint would cause the price to go up. TIA

The terminal is for exports from the US (particularly to Europe), and the futures contracts are on US gas prices. Europe desperately needs gas this winter. Markets are pricing in the assumption that the US producers will get great prices from European consumers this winter. If US gas can't get to Europe then the US can't sell that gas at high prices in Europe. Also, additionally, the domestic market will be flooded i…

whats interesting to consider is that while russia had no interest in sabotaging their nordstream pipelines, the US absolutely did. conversely russia has great interest in fouling up the gas markets the US relies upon to profit from russias curious energy export misfortunes.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#47

Post by ianai »

parker_mountain wrote: post #24
matai_kolila wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is anyone still believing this stuff? How is anything on Twitter taken seriously anymore??

> How is anything on Twitter taken seriously anymore Although the average user on HN is terminally online, most people still view Twitter as a useful utility. Every day Elon continues this charade is a day of incredible, massive brand damage. Someone posting Eli Lily was pricing insulin for free caused their stock to plunge - along with other biotech companies. Someone convinced many people that an official Nintendo…

But we’d all be better off if people knew to take the internet with appropriate doses of skepticism.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#48

Post by ianai »

netsharc wrote: post #30
matai_kolila wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is anyone still believing this stuff? How is anything on Twitter taken seriously anymore??

I guess it's traders gambling, "We're not sure if it's true, but if it's true, then we need to be ahead of the rest of the market!". Interestingly, if I were a trader and I knew the Eli Lily tweet was fake, would I ask "What are the chances a many people are going to fall for this, and how will they react, and can I make a profit out of their stupidity?"

That’s one way to disprove the efficient market hypothesis.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#49

Post by vkou »

oneeyedpigeon wrote: post #35
blibble wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How is anything on Twitter taken seriously anymore?? it was ever taken seriously?

Not sure what country you're in, but here in the UK, a non-zero amount of our news coverage is built on the twitter house of cards. And if you're in the US, it seems a significant part of your politics is affected by twitter too.

That's because it's very cheap for an acolyte of twosidist 'journalism' to take 10 minutes to scroll through Twitter, find an inflammatory hot take by @weedfeast68, and spend a few minutes talking about how 'Twitter is saying '

It's the digital equivalent of picking a rando off the street to ask him for his opinion about the optimal deployment of pacific aircraft carrier groups, and of homelessness trends downtown, but it doesn't even require the journalist to get out of his chair.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#50

Post by flutas »

parker_mountain wrote: post #24
matai_kolila wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is anyone still believing this stuff? How is anything on Twitter taken seriously anymore??

> How is anything on Twitter taken seriously anymore Although the average user on HN is terminally online, most people still view Twitter as a useful utility. Every day Elon continues this charade is a day of incredible, massive brand damage. Someone posting Eli Lily was pricing insulin for free caused their stock to plunge - along with other biotech companies. Someone convinced many people that an official Nintendo…

>Someone posting Eli Lily was pricing insulin for free caused their stock to plunge - along with other biotech companies.

Not really.

Context: they had other massive profits lost (125k/dose medication).

https://twitter.com/quantian1/status/1591149510168039426

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