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An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

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Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just read "the cold time of year" when you see "winter" and you'll get past this.

I'm not trying to 'get past this', I'm trying to express my disbelief at the fact that: A - Things have gotten to the point where we can't talk about a damn season without personal interpretations of it; B - This has seeped into Hacker News, a forum I thought was for more diligent folks.

For a street artist, winter might mean when it's too dark to perform.

For a farmer, it might mean when the animals need to be kept in a barn.

And for a commodities trader, it means when demand for gas is high.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not surprised at the fact that different places in the world have different weather patterns and different approaches to heating, lol. I'm surprised at the fact that winter is such a debatable topic and people base it on how they dress, or whether their municipality is feeding them heating agent, or if they turn on their own heating agent. We can take every little coordinate point on the earth, its political stru…

What do you consider a winter?

I consider winter to be a magical time of the year when as a child I used to play in the snow, hear stories about horrible winters from my grand parents, and that as an adult I feel brings some difficulties to my life.

When I read something like 'this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far', I refer back to the common interpretation of winter which is December -> March in the Northern Hemisphere, because otherwise I would have to start interpreting what the other three seasons mean also.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#123
post #3

Commodity traders and investors are very networked and really like such immediate usage news. Many firms also count trucks/traffic near sites etc. so it isn't surprising to see people respond to this. However, the causation is unclear to me. European gas stocks are at full capacity as is and this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far. A 7% drop is par for course in the last few weeks. An extra piece of bad ne…

[deleted]

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Language is fluid. And with climate change, traditional seasons aren't nearly as useful in discussion as they used to be. In my area of my country, our autumn used to be the time of big stable highs giving rise to clear days and frosts overnight. Great time of year to go hiking, minimal chance of intense rainfall or snowfall in the high country. Now the weather in autumn resembles that in spring - predominant north w…

> And with climate change, traditional seasons aren't nearly as useful in discussion as they used to be. It's definitely a bit more useful than arbitrary subjective interpretations of said terms based on hyperlocal weather patterns. > I feel you're still getting hung up on definitions that are becoming more obsolete by the year. I feel like you're not getting hung up enough on the definition of a definition. This mig…

Agree to disagree I think.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#126
post #61
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What risk? The US says jump and European politicians ask how high...

>The US says jump and European politicians ask how high... I mean, if that were true Julian Assange would be in a bodybag right now, wouldn't he?

Instead he was merely kept isolated in a single building while his accusers simply refused to investigate the allegations they invented unless he turned himself over to them to be extradited to the USA.

So yeah, maybe they aks how high, but sometimes don't jump all the way, just most of it.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not trying to 'get past this', I'm trying to express my disbelief at the fact that: A - Things have gotten to the point where we can't talk about a damn season without personal interpretations of it; B - This has seeped into Hacker News, a forum I thought was for more diligent folks.

Language is fluid. And with climate change, traditional seasons aren't nearly as useful in discussion as they used to be. In my area of my country, our autumn used to be the time of big stable highs giving rise to clear days and frosts overnight. Great time of year to go hiking, minimal chance of intense rainfall or snowfall in the high country. Now the weather in autumn resembles that in spring - predominant north w…

> Lastly, from my limited experience of Germany, the most miserable weather tends to come late October - November.

For what it's worth, if anything, this is certainly not true. Generally January and February are the coldest months in Germany, and if by miserable you mean dark, grey or snowy, it's also January and February.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#128
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The German storage facilities hold gas for two months of typical January consumption rates.

Ownership of that gas is however unclear https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/trotz-voller-speich...

(For non German speakers: that linked article's main point is that the gas in German storage may be sent to other European countries, it's not all reserved for the German market.)

As a German, I'm perfectly fine with the reserves serving Europe and not just Germany. Even if/when we run low and have to suffer a bit.

After all, we expect the same from others, that they help us out if they have some and we don't. Energy markets in Europe are connected, for electricity too.

A picture: https://old.reddit.com/r/hardenergy/comments/2d4sgy/natural_...

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wikipedia has an interesting note "Cultural influences such as Christmas creep may have led to the winter season being perceived as beginning earlier in recent years" I think I've always considered November to be winter, and at some point I picked up that Christmas is in the middle/even towards the end to break it up and give everyone something to look forward to, so I'm always a bit surprised seeing talk of winter i…

I always thought that the shortest day shouldn't be the first day of winter, but rather the middle, so then winter would begin in late October, and summer would begin in late April.

> I always thought that the shortest day shouldn't be the first day of winter, but rather the middle

That's not just you. Every traditional calendar says the same thing.

As far as I can tell, the idea that winter starts on the solstice, when it's been winter for more than a month (unless you're in the tropics), is an invention of Hallmark or some other calendar manufacturer. It is based on nothing.

I tried reading Poor Richard's Almanac[1] to see if it indicated the "beginning of [any season]", but if it does I didn't understand. (There is a column of "remarkable days", but it is often difficult to understand the entries in that column.)

Careful track is kept of the exact time of sunrise and sunset, and of what kind of weather to expect ("rain"; "snow"), but the seasons don't seem to be labeled explicitly.

Interestingly, I browsed through the Almanac of 1748 as a sanity check while writing this comment, and the sunrise and sunset times clearly identify June 14 (well, the 8-day period from June 10 to June 17) as the summer solstice (we'd expect June 20 or 21) and, much more weirdly, March 8 (exactly) as the vernal equinox, where we'd expect March 20. The autumnal equinox is September 11 and the winter solstice is sometime between December 3 and December 18.

Either Benjamin Franklin was terrible at calculating astronomical dates, or there was a calendar adjustment between then and now.

[1] http://www.rarebookroom.org/Franklin.html

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#130
post #7

Can someone explain why the rumor of cracked pipes and delayed restart of a terminal would cause the futures price to go down? I would think that news of a supply constraint would cause the price to go up. TIA

The terminal is for exports from the US (particularly to Europe), and the futures contracts are on US gas prices. Europe desperately needs gas this winter. Markets are pricing in the assumption that the US producers will get great prices from European consumers this winter. If US gas can't get to Europe then the US can't sell that gas at high prices in Europe. Also, additionally, the domestic market will be flooded i…

> Europe desperately needs gas this winter

Yes, but consider this: There's ca. $2bn of LNG waiting on LNG tankers around Europe, with many more ships to come.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/6/dozens-of-ships-car...

Does not look all that desperate to me any more by this point. The price is higher than before of course, but that is much less of a problem than not having the gas. Besides, isn't that higher price exactly what is needed anyway with climate change looming? About twenty-five years ago the Greens in Germany wanted 5 DM (it was ca. 1.50 DM at the time) for a liter of gas for that reason.

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