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An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

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Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#61

Post by krapp »

okasaki wrote: post #55
spywaregorilla wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin has plenty of interest in sabotaging the pipelines. If the pipelines are destroyed, one cannot kill Putin, take over, and sell gas to europe again to be rich. The US would suffer an incredible risk if it ever came out that they intentionally sabotaged European energy supplies to such a scale.

What risk? The US says jump and European politicians ask how high...

>The US says jump and European politicians ask how high...

I mean, if that were true Julian Assange would be in a bodybag right now, wouldn't he?

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#62

Post by hedora »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #52
nimbius wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

whats interesting to consider is that while russia had no interest in sabotaging their nordstream pipelines, the US absolutely did. conversely russia has great interest in fouling up the gas markets the US relies upon to profit from russias curious energy export misfortunes.

Putin has plenty of interest in sabotaging the pipelines. If the pipelines are destroyed, one cannot kill Putin, take over, and sell gas to europe again to be rich. The US would suffer an incredible risk if it ever came out that they intentionally sabotaged European energy supplies to such a scale.

There was zero blowback last time the US blew up Russian pipelines. It was the largest non-nuclear, man-made explosion / fire to date though -- all achieved in 1982 via a software supply chain attack:

https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2022/09/29/reagan-approve...

Interestingly, the three simultaneous ruptures of two pipelines look a lot like what happened 40 years ago.

It wouldn't surprise me if a shoden-wielding script kiddie was to blame this time, but I have no idea. I'm not trying to imply anyone was/wasn't involved.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#63

Post by rsj_hn »

hedora wrote: post #62
spywaregorilla wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin has plenty of interest in sabotaging the pipelines. If the pipelines are destroyed, one cannot kill Putin, take over, and sell gas to europe again to be rich. The US would suffer an incredible risk if it ever came out that they intentionally sabotaged European energy supplies to such a scale.

There was zero blowback last time the US blew up Russian pipelines. It was the largest non-nuclear, man-made explosion / fire to date though -- all achieved in 1982 via a software supply chain attack: https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2022/09/29/reagan-approve... Interestingly, the three simultaneous ruptures of two pipelines look a lot like what happened 40 years ago. It wouldn't surprise me if a shoden-wielding sc…

Also no blowback when the US blew up refineries and oil pipelines in Nicaragua in Puerto Sandino, in 1983[1] - as well as mined the ports of Nicaragua[2]. There is in general a 30 year statuary timeline for declassifying these types of ops, although the US is usually late[3], so we may have confirmation in 2060 or so.

[1] https://repository.law.miami.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article...

[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1984/04/07/c...

[3] https://fas.org/blogs/secrecy/2011/10/frus_leads_lags/

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#64

Post by ThalesX »

jonasdegendt wrote: post #59
ThalesX wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far I feel like I'm going crazy as this is not the first time I've seen / heard this argument. What does winter mean? I thought it was the months from December to February. I don't understand the narrative that we're in a warm winter at all . Winter, just like Game of Thrones, is coming.

People are just throwing fall and winter together, but it has been an incredibly mild fall so far and that’s definitely been suppressing gas prices. We’re pretty much mid November and I haven’t even turned on my heating, it’s crazy.

Just a couple of months ago (2?) there was an article on Hacker News about the arctic vortex falling apart making for an unusually hot autumn and a very bad winter. I don’t know how it’s going to pan out but where I am from, yesterday was basically late spring and today is very cold.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#66

Post by zackees »

crmd wrote: post #7

Can someone explain why the rumor of cracked pipes and delayed restart of a terminal would cause the futures price to go down? I would think that news of a supply constraint would cause the price to go up. TIA

No post body was provided.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#68

Post by throwaway932489 »

ThalesX wrote: post #37
veqq wrote: post #3

Commodity traders and investors are very networked and really like such immediate usage news. Many firms also count trucks/traffic near sites etc. so it isn't surprising to see people respond to this. However, the causation is unclear to me. European gas stocks are at full capacity as is and this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far. A 7% drop is par for course in the last few weeks. An extra piece of bad ne…

> this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far I feel like I'm going crazy as this is not the first time I've seen / heard this argument. What does winter mean? I thought it was the months from December to February. I don't understand the narrative that we're in a warm winter at all . Winter, just like Game of Thrones, is coming.

Wikipedia has an interesting note

"Cultural influences such as Christmas creep may have led to the winter season being perceived as beginning earlier in recent years"

I think I've always considered November to be winter, and at some point I picked up that Christmas is in the middle/even towards the end to break it up and give everyone something to look forward to, so I'm always a bit surprised seeing talk of winter in the future tense once I've put on the winter duvet/started wearing a coat all the time/turned on the central heating (not this year).

Equally anything in Feb seems firmly Spring.

But I'm not trying to force this on anyone!

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#69

Post by themitigating »

dylan604 wrote: post #43
twawaaay wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't it true that the price for gas in Europe is very inelastic at the moment (meaning they will pay pretty much any price to get it) and so any shortage of it will cause dramatic price increase? Also, Europe can't easily switch to another source of gas because they have maxed out everything they could. This is basically the reason why OPEC restricts oil production, it is just here the same is happening unintentiona…

>it is just here the same is happening unintentionally by LNG terminal malfunction. with all that is going on in the world, it would be really easy to give into the conspiracy aspect and say intentional malfunction. we've already seen what has been agreed upon as sabotage to underwater pipelines. why not a terminal like this as well? Edit: I'm in no way pushing this as a thing. Just speculating from past experience i…

You've had past experience involving large conspiracies?

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#70

Post by themitigating »

ThalesX wrote: post #37
veqq wrote: post #3

Commodity traders and investors are very networked and really like such immediate usage news. Many firms also count trucks/traffic near sites etc. so it isn't surprising to see people respond to this. However, the causation is unclear to me. European gas stocks are at full capacity as is and this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far. A 7% drop is par for course in the last few weeks. An extra piece of bad ne…

> this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far I feel like I'm going crazy as this is not the first time I've seen / heard this argument. What does winter mean? I thought it was the months from December to February. I don't understand the narrative that we're in a warm winter at all . Winter, just like Game of Thrones, is coming.

It's currently 71f 22c at 19:00 where I live in NY.

Historical average for the day is 56f 13c and the high is 74f so only a few degrees off

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