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US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

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Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#521
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would bother to make my payments because I would feel like shit if I took that much money from the American taxpayer without paying it back.

Why not start donating extra tax to repay any public school expenses you acrued as a child?

That’s bizarre but I’ll assume you don’t know how American public schools are paid for. It’s property tax, which is money the government takes from you when you own a house. Those property taxes were paid annually by definition.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They effectively said, "The increase went down." It would have been much clearer for them to say, "The increase has slowed."

This is like the 3rd derivative, right? e.g. we now have a slightly lower rate of acceleration towards the cliff than before?

There's no cliff (at least for this to be the third, or even second, derivative with regard to.) Its not like there is a magic bad nominal price level.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#523
post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is a 'haha Americans so dumb' myth that's been blown up - it's the result of a NY Times article that outline a private restaurant chain focus group result. So tldr; some people in a private focus group questioned the value of a 1/3 pound burger over the same priced 1/4 pound burger. It's not indicative of any system numerical illiteracy. I will add there were no actual data released - it's solely based on an ane…

Even more than that, the accounts we get claim that some of the people in the focus group said the 1/3 pound burger was smaller than the quarter pounder. Even if those claims are accurate, it's possible they were looking at the diameter, since the 1/3 pounder has two smaller patties stacked on top of each other, while the quarter pounder is one large patty. Most places that report on this say that the third pounder w…

Since you bring up the name change... didn't it sell better after the name change?

But of course my point was never about the burger. It was just that many aren't good with numbers and finance (in the edit with the links).

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#524
post #515
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have inflation protected bonds? In the USA you can buy I-Bonds (max $10k/year per person) that pay interest at the current inflation rate. But what is considered “safe” really has a lot to do with your timeline. How soon do you want to access the money? If it’s in tears then index funds are likely a good buy today.

Poland offers something similar, but with a twist. On the plus side, the amount you can buy is unlimited. However, interest rate is fixed in the first year, at 7% (which is a far cry from 17.9% inflation). From the year two the interest rate is inflation rate + 1% premium. You can buy either 4 or 10 year bonds.

Inflation + 1% beat a lot of bonds the last decade to be sure.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#525

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is like the 3rd derivative, right? e.g. we now have a slightly lower rate of acceleration towards the cliff than before?

There's no cliff (at least for this to be the third, or even second, derivative with regard to.) Its not like there is a magic bad nominal price level.

Right, the cliff is when people lose confidence in the dollar, which probably has a lot to do with the inflation rate, changes in the inflation rate, and the duration over which we've seen what sort of behavior (... and probably a lot of other things) but not much to do with the actual price level itself.

If we average 2%yoy every single decade for the next 300 years, people will probably have a lot of trust in the dollar in the decade following. If we hit that same price level tomorrow, people will rightly flip. $1700 milk either way, but in one case we'd expect $1700 milk the following day and in the other we'd expect the dollar to plummet further from the shock of it.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#526
post #517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

? You don't think I know how bonds work? Yet you agree with me?

> the "market", which is now controlled by AI reading newsprint You might as well say "I don't understand how bonds work". It's fewer words.

No post body was provided.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#527
post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you’d be a sucker for not taking tax credits the government has legally granted you. It’s the governments fault for making terrible loans and forcing taxpayers to absorb the risk. Don’t be mad at people for receiving…be mad the government is offering!

My partner and I make $420k gross. it's ridiculous the government is offering us another $20k because we graduated school in the last 2 years. still going to take it, of course, but simply bad policy.

100% agree. Our government needs to start being fiscally responsible. We cannot sustain our current levels of debt forever…

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#528

Anyone notice that brand name soda (looking at you Coke) has increased almost 100% while the generic/house brand has had slight increases. I feel like Coke is testing the pricing limits of its customers especially with the smaller packaging and these prices will not come back down.

If you check Coke's financial statements, you'll see that although revenue has risen quickly, cost of revenue has risen about as fast, leading to relatively unchanged gross profit margins (36% so far in 2022, compared with 40%+ in every year from 1985-2014 and between 33%-39% from 2015 to 2021). Word from industry press is that the rising price of aluminum has been a major driver of the increased costs. I don't know…

Increase diameter couple of mm and reduce height couple of mm, will that work ?

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#529
post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think anyone was saying it was misleading, rather they were pointing at a nuance of the data.

> It seems misleading (from the comment I directly replied to)

Huh, well, fair enough.

Serves me right for reading too quickly.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#530

The US has it easy, since the inflation was largely caused by lockdown stimulus, and also benefits from being the global reserve currency so it can leverage cheap imports as the interest rate rises increase the value of USD. I wouldn't be surprised if it's better in a few months, especially with the growing protectionism in the anti-inflation act, etc. and acts against Chinese competition, etc. keeping more industry…

I too watch/read Peter Zeihan and think he has some insights, but please don't take it all on face value (industry is probably not coming back to the US in force, and shifts from China will be slow and painful)

Zeihan is one of those commentators that seems to throw a bunch of wild predictions at the wall to be entertaining, appear insightful, and be able to say he called it when one of every dozen ends up being correct.
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