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US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

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Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Notice that they attacked the source, rather than addressed the argument. Inflation is definitely higher than 7.7%. Seems to me there's a lot more energy going into that propaganda wave than anything else.

I don't think learning about the world is about listening to whomever is best at arguing, exactly.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#332
post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is partly what we’re seeing. CPI rose 0.4% MoM in October, or 4.8% seasonally adjusted. That’s above target, but better than YoY.

Really wish we reported the 4.8% number. Seems more reasonable for a monthly report to focus on the changes of the month.

I agree it's confusing. I think they do it to remove seasonality and the experts on the topic probably don't understand anymore why the rest of us think their way of reporting is confusing to lay people.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#333
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

Which businessman in their right mind will decrease the price of their products because of cost decrease? Not unless there is intense competition. Because of that for large scale monopoly business like commodities once the prices go up it may not come down again.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#334

Quoted post unavailable.

If you care this much about inflation, you should calculate your own personal inflation rate(PIR). It will be different than CPI, because what you buy and what CPI tracks won't be the same. Regardless, your own personal inflation rate will have actual meaning to you. My PIR in 2021 was 1.6%. So far in 2022 it's gone up to 6.8%.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#335
So how much of this is due to lower than normal heating costs last month?

Utility (piped) gas service -4.6%

I used the A/C more than heat last month since temps have been quite a bit higher than normal. Just using A/C in October is pretty abnormal for me.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#336
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

Which businessman in their right mind will decrease the price of their products because of cost decrease? Not unless there is intense competition. Because of that for large scale monopoly business like commodities once the prices go up it may not come down again.

I may be missing something, but if there is no competitive pressure/monopolistic market, why would these businesses need the excuse of inflation/cost increases to increase their prices? Wouldn't we expect prices to have gone up before inflation?

Or is this a specific criticism of a regulatory blind spot for reigning in market power? Monopolies can get away with price increases now, but they wouldn't normally?

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess I must be wrong, but I'll never understand why Coke needs that much advertising. Or anything "that well known". The argument is maybe they are that well known because of advertising, but I just don't think that's the case. Maybe for a crappy product, but not a good product. With Coke it's the quality (and consistency) of the product. I've never tasted anything "as good" as Coke. A new fresh cold can has a bit…

This comment sounds like you're getting a piece of that $4bn

Not sure what that is supposed to mean. I'm pointing out that it's a high quality product. There's a reason Coke absolutely dominates everything else out there. I guess to you I'm just a Coke shill though. Ok!

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#338

In many European countries inflation is at 15% If it reaches 20% that means every 3.5 years your cash reserve loses half its value Mean someone correct me if I’m wrong I think that is astounding

I think people are underestimating how much the cost of energy impacts inflation.

It used to be primarily labor costs, and labor/wages is still a major part. However with automation some labor is being replaced by automation and thus converts what used to be labor cost to energy cost.

European countries are not in great shape from an energy POV.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#339
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

You mean a negative CPI growth / CPI decline, right? With a negative CPI stuff would be free + we would be getting money on top (on average) :D

I think the best way to understand it is to just look at the index itself [1] and not the first or second derivative.

[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-price-in...

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#340

Anyone notice that brand name soda (looking at you Coke) has increased almost 100% while the generic/house brand has had slight increases. I feel like Coke is testing the pricing limits of its customers especially with the smaller packaging and these prices will not come back down.

Is Pop Shoppe still a thing? http://old52blog.blogspot.com/2011/03/pop-shoppe.html

And bring back the "White Label" groceries from the 80's while you're at it. http://historysdumpster.blogspot.com/2012/08/generic-product...

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