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US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

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Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#221

Post by impulser_ »

matwood wrote: post #80
lunaru wrote: post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down （that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

And to add to your explanation, because inflation jumped so quickly and then slowed we'll eventually hit a YoY number that plummets. If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. This will inevitably lead to people saying the numbers are fake because milk used to be $2/gallon.

Don't be surprised when politicians use this to their advantage next year.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#222

Post by InTheArena »

mi_lk wrote: post #24
InTheArena wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will take a quarter, but given the massive layoffs occurring now, the projections of early next year are looking spot on. Inflation is a different problem.

> the projections of early next year where do you see that projection?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-ceo-says-reasonab... https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/15/r... https://abc11.com/recession-prediction-2023-imf-world-econom... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/bank-of-england-uk-faces-lon...

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#224

Post by sz4kerto »

wkrsz wrote: post #196

Why is this causing USD/EUR exchange rate to fall? And in general USD to lose value compared to other currencies. My guess is that expectation of higher inflation was combined with expectation of further interest rate increases to combat it. Interest rate increases generally make currency more attractive for investments from abroad, which increases exchange rate. This expectation was "priced in" current exchanged rat…

You're correct, that's why.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#225

Post by [deleted] »

lunaru wrote: post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down （that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

[deleted]

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#226

Post by giantg2 »

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #212
giantg2 wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't make sense. Falling prices for what? CPI is a measure of cost of a basket of goods. You can't have net aggregate falling prices and a rising CPI unless you are measuring different prices.

CPI up 20% month on month in month 1. CPI down 1% month on month for the remaining 11 months. That would result in what they are saying.

Ah, so not mismatched prices/goods, but mismatched temporally.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#227

Post by somuchfordonor »

hatware wrote: post #207
MagnumOpus wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shadowstats is bullshit for a number of reasons - you can read up on most of them on the official articles and publications and justifications on the BLS website -- which are generally written by statisticians with maths or econ PhDs with no vested political interest, unlike Shadowstats which is written by an MBA who needs to sell a newsletter. But you can very easily debunk Shadowstats by just averaging the ridiculo…

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Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#228

Post by dcow »

moron4hire wrote: post #209
giantg2 wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's certainly more than just the number confusion, but I specifically remember the case study we were looking at included a survey where a sizeable number of respondents said 1/4 was bigger than 1/3.

I don't know anything about this particular one, but just because it's a case study in a textbook doesn't mean it's true. There are lots of untruths that get propagated long after they've been debunked.

But they’re citing a survey where people literally didn’t get it. That, if not made up, factually supports the claim that some people really do think 1/3 is less than 1/4.

I really liked the 1/3 pound “thickburgers”. I don’t think it was just some dying chain trying to spread rumors about how stupid people didn't understand their marketing and that’s why they “died” (they’re still very much alive last I checked).

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#229

Post by mrtranscendence »

tomcam wrote: post #199
Pigalowda wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven’t been paying anything since non-penalized forbearance started. Why pay when interest is 0% and there’s no penalty for not paying? I’ve been using money that normally goes to loans for other bills. I imagine plenty of other people are buying more stuff with the money so i imagine it does contribute to inflation

> Why pay when interest is 0% and there’s no penalty for not paying? Just spitballing here… But maybe you should pay because you promised to pay it, the costs were borne by the vast majority of taxpayers who did not take out such loans, and because tradesmen and other perfectly deserving parties do not get access to such easy money?

> the costs were borne by the vast majority of taxpayers who did not take out such loans

The sheer amount of interest I have paid, and will pay, on my student loans makes me think the costs will in fact be borne by me.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#230

Post by formerkrogemp »

laweijfmvo wrote: post #175
thomastjeffery wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They effectively said, "The increase went down." It would have been much clearer for them to say, "The increase has slowed."

This is like the 3rd derivative, right? e.g. we now have a slightly lower rate of acceleration towards the cliff than before?

Second derivative I think. Inflation is change in prices. Change in inflation is a second order derivative? I wish more Americans knew at least a little conceptually about derivatives. Personally, I need to review them. Anecdotally, the number of accountants that I've met that haven't progressed beyond middle school level math is depressing as well.
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