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US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

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171–180 of 566 posts

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#171
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lack of low-wage immigrant labor to fill farm jobs. https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/07/28/a-shortfa...

I'd imagine it's more likely due to energy prices associated with the chicken houses, and the virus (bird flu I think) they've been dealing with.

Energy prices in the form of diesel to get the eggs delivered, too.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve always thought this was somewhat apocryphal/a myth. Did it actually occur?

this is a 'haha Americans so dumb' myth that's been blown up - it's the result of a NY Times article that outline a private restaurant chain focus group result. So tldr; some people in a private focus group questioned the value of a 1/3 pound burger over the same priced 1/4 pound burger. It's not indicative of any system numerical illiteracy. I will add there were no actual data released - it's solely based on an ane…

I was exposed to this myth in my youth as various European nations described their misadventures in the US of A or encounters with Americans and as a result came to US with wrong expectations. Now that I live here, things a little more clear to me. It is a nation of more than 350 million people ( depending on how and who you count ). Even a small percentage of certifiable idiots will be very well represented in terms of absolute numbers.

I would not say Americans in general are dumb though. I would say that:

1) they are under-educated ( and then we can also get about the quality of education for those that were educated ) 2) they are very heavily propagandized

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#173
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not really skewing anything though, since the price is 20% yoy?

It is skewing if you are looking for an up to date change. It's like, is it better to get two points on a curved line and draw a straight line through them, or is it better to calculate the derivative and the the slope at a specific point?

That depends on how noisy or smooth the changes are. That's why it's valuable to look at both.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#174
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many Americans are illiterate on numbers and the economy too. I still remember the classic example that a burger chain released a 1/3 pound burger to compete with another chain's 1/4 pound burger, and many people thought the 1/4 pound was bigger... Edit: there are some people saying it's a myth, or not a complete picture. Looks like we don't have the data. But my point is that we aren't very good with numbers or econ…

>Many Americans are illiterate on numbers and the economy too Many more pretend to be less literate than they are for ideological reasons. >still remember the classic example that a burger chain released a 1/3 pound burger to compete with another chain's 1/4 pound burger, and many people thought the 1/4 pound was bigger. This trope needs to be taken out back and shot. It wasn't that people didn't get it. It's that it…

There's certainly more than just the number confusion, but I specifically remember the case study we were looking at included a survey where a sizeable number of respondents said 1/4 was bigger than 1/3.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#175
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

They effectively said, "The increase went down." It would have been much clearer for them to say, "The increase has slowed."

This is like the 3rd derivative, right? e.g. we now have a slightly lower rate of acceleration towards the cliff than before?

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#176
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

Inflation over the last year was 7.7% - if the October rate holds for a year, it will be under half of the last years inflation rate coming in at 3.6%

That’s the number that matters in a forward looking instrument like the market

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#177
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

Well explained. Idk for english-speaking countries or your country of origin but the average spanish is an absolute illiterate in economy. These explanations are very necessary so that people develop an intuition of what is going on.

I have a degree in it and I often don't feel that I know anything. For a guy who did a lot of STEM economics is a pretty odd subject in many ways. A mixture of interesting insights, strange models, and a lot of soft talk.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#178
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

This isn't right. It could in fact mean prices are going down.

Had we just reported a month on month -0.4% instead of 0.4%, the yoy rate would have been reported as 6.9%. A headline of 6.9% would mean prices are actually going down.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#179

The US has it easy, since the inflation was largely caused by lockdown stimulus, and also benefits from being the global reserve currency so it can leverage cheap imports as the interest rate rises increase the value of USD. I wouldn't be surprised if it's better in a few months, especially with the growing protectionism in the anti-inflation act, etc. and acts against Chinese competition, etc. keeping more industry…

There was no Anti-Inflation Act, there was a spending... SPENDING bill they claimed would lower inflation because it also included a very limited amount of deficit reduction which 1 week later they had spent like 3 times on new programs including the Student Loan Cancellation which reversed any inflation reduction the original bill could have had (which was nill in the first place)

I wish the political people would go away from HN. The forum is becoming a rough spot.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#180

The US has it easy, since the inflation was largely caused by lockdown stimulus, and also benefits from being the global reserve currency so it can leverage cheap imports as the interest rate rises increase the value of USD. I wouldn't be surprised if it's better in a few months, especially with the growing protectionism in the anti-inflation act, etc. and acts against Chinese competition, etc. keeping more industry…

> since the inflation was largely caused by lockdown stimulus

This is a widely disproved myth.

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