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US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

bls.gov

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Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#161

Post by SantalBlush »

miked85 wrote: post #63
boc wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it’s antisocial behavior? Reflexively casting doubt (without a counter-argument) on a number that the BLS has been publishing for decades using a transparent methodology isn’t helpful. This number isn’t the “how much am I spending on groceries” number, it’s a much larger snapshot of the price levels across multiple industries. Nobody thinks it’s perfect, but it’s consistent . You might not believe it, but Wal…

I don't think suggesting that governments put out economic numbers which make them look better is "antisocial behavior".

Statistical methodologies are developed and executed by bureaucrats and academics, not politicians.

What most people fail to recognize is that the vast majority of US government employees perform their jobs across many administrations with consistency. They are very much working for the government, and not their favorite politicians.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#162

Post by lottin »

_aavaa_ wrote: post #34
throwawayosa wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation here means a very specific thing. You can check which prices they are looking at. How could it be a lie?

> You can check which prices they are looking at. How could it be a lie? By excluding prices which make the number look bad despite them potentially being the numbers regular people actually care about. The same is true of including prices which look good but don’t matter as much. And then by marketing that average number as a realistic approximation of price increases in day to day life.

Inflation is the change in the price level. The price level is not observable, so it needs to be estimated somehow. Inferring it from the prices "people care about" is ABSOLUTELY WRONG methodologically speaking.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#163

Post by mattferderer »

matwood wrote: post #80
lunaru wrote: post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down （that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

And to add to your explanation, because inflation jumped so quickly and then slowed we'll eventually hit a YoY number that plummets. If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. This will inevitably lead to people saying the numbers are fake because milk used to be $2/gallon.

How to set inflation expectations - "Inflation shoots up like a rocket & floats down like a feather."

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#164

Post by danielmarkbruce »

soared wrote: post #130
throw0101a wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. Conversely, if there was a one-time jump in a particular item, it will take a year before it gets 'removed' from the inflation numbers. Extremely contrived example: if gas/petrol was $1/L in December 2021 (and generally in all of 2021), but $1.20/L in January 2022, then there will be a 20% YoY jump in inflation for the January…

It’s not really skewing anything though, since the price is 20% yoy?

It is skewing if you are looking for an up to date change. It's like, is it better to get two points on a curved line and draw a straight line through them, or is it better to calculate the derivative and the the slope at a specific point?

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#165

Post by jackcviers3 »

theyeenzbeanz wrote: post #110
hnburnsy wrote: post #94

Anyone notice that brand name soda (looking at you Coke) has increased almost 100% while the generic/house brand has had slight increases. I feel like Coke is testing the pricing limits of its customers especially with the smaller packaging and these prices will not come back down.

A 20oz bottle is easily 2.29 now compared to roughly 1.79 not long ago.

I remember when it was $1 for almost 7 years, then went to $1.49. It hurt because now you had to feed 2 bills into machines that could barely take 1 reliably, and were always out of change.

How that didn't drive the price back down to $1 or up to $2 I'll never understand. It had to have increased labor on the parts of the vendors and decreased demand for the vendors at the same time. That's about the time I started just stocking a 6 pack or 2 liter (depending on which was cheaper per oz) in the fridge for the week, too, which drops the unit price.it also decreased the total volume of soft drinks that I bought.

I don't know how soft drinks can continue to increase in prices under that dynamic. My guess is that the majority of people just buy it and don't notice anything that costs less than $10 anymore, so convenience stores can get away with movie theater prices as long as they don't cross that trivial threshold. People will pay for convenience under $10.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#166

Post by danielmarkbruce »

lunaru wrote: post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down （that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

You could just say: CPI is up 0.4% month-over-month. It gets reported.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#167

Post by KptMarchewa »

matwood wrote: post #80
lunaru wrote: post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down （that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

And to add to your explanation, because inflation jumped so quickly and then slowed we'll eventually hit a YoY number that plummets. If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. This will inevitably lead to people saying the numbers are fake because milk used to be $2/gallon.

Month on month numbers are still slightly up.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#168

Post by richiebful1 »

flavius29663 wrote: post #149
Zigurd wrote: post #120

Several commenters have provided various reasons year-over-year numbers are, to put it mildly, difficult to interpret. Another reason is that a major war in Europe started within this year, adding to the difficulty of Y0Y comparisons. The principal weapon deployed against the aggressor is economic warfare to collapse Russia's economy. That has only recently made an impact that can't be denied in Russia. Meanwhile, th…

You can't blame US inflation on the Russia war, this is a DNC misdirection. For the US at least, it should be a minor factor. The US were trading very little with Russia to begin with, even before the war. Russia's economy before the war was still smaller than California, New York or Texas. Waging economic warfare on a medium economy like that should not wreak the US, Europe or the World economies.

Agreed with one caveat: energy. Some countries in Europe depend on Russian gas for a significant percentage of their energy. Europe is desperate for LNG and is outbidding other gas importing nations, driving up prices.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#169

Post by kennend3 »

theyeenzbeanz wrote: post #110
hnburnsy wrote: post #94

Anyone notice that brand name soda (looking at you Coke) has increased almost 100% while the generic/house brand has had slight increases. I feel like Coke is testing the pricing limits of its customers especially with the smaller packaging and these prices will not come back down.

A 20oz bottle is easily 2.29 now compared to roughly 1.79 not long ago.

As someone who use to drink a lot of coke and quit.. this is very true here (Ontario, Canada) as well.

I remember buying 2L bottles for $0.99 on a regular basis (they often had sales). I don't drink it anymore (one month and counting) but i do check the prices weekly out of habit and never see it below $2.29/2L now?

I actually just checked and it has gone up in price once again, now $2.49/2L

Crazy.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#170

Post by lottin »

giantg2 wrote: post #108
lottin wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Year-over-year inflation doesn't tell us anything about whether prices are going up or down right now .

No historical data is going to tell us the future. But it can give us an idea of the trend, which is useful since in a large system like the economy the trend tends to change relatively slowly as compared to individual compentents.

A statistic is only useful if you know how to interpret it. Case in point: you can have double digit year-over-year inflation, while simultaneously falling prices for the last 11 months.
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