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Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#171

Post by Closi »

LatteLazy wrote: post #160
Closi wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So is denying climate change or the moon landings... Ah yes, so I would assume that the WHO would conclusively say that the lab leak theory is incorrect then? https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/09/who-sago-cov... Oh... they say they are still investigating it and that the theory should be left on the table... but I guess the British Medical Journal would say it's total nonsense right?! https://www.bmj.com…

And this is the amazing leap so many people seem to make: If it is technically possible, then it must be true. That's what baffles me here: "We cannot conclusively say it's wrong" so it must be right. When did that become a popular mode of reasoning? I can only assume people are so desperate to believe they will swallow this rather than accept reality.

That's not what I'm saying - Where did I say it must be true? I'm saying "We cannot conclusively say it's wrong, thus it's not in the same category as the moon landing".

In reality nobody knows the origin for certain, but IMO you seem to fall for the fallacy you are describing but with the opposite premise - i.e. "We cannot conclusively say that the lab leak theory is right or wrong, thus it cannot possibly be a lab leak".

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#172

Post by Closi »

nlitsme wrote: post #83

just looking at the graph: why do they expect this to be linear? Their graph has two lines: (month 0 == december) - totalcases = 180*month+300 - totaldeaths = 83*month+84 Recent experience with covid shows that usually epidemics initially grow exponentially.

You are right - the government analysis looks like garbage IMHO.

The slide shows that they are actually just forecasting (month * 200) cases which is obviously not the way you should do this. The slide also has a bar chart with a line between the bars, which is a stats-bad-smell too (at least shows that whoever pulled this together doesn't understand how to display data).

I know this is a developing nation that won't have the same level of availability of statisticians and epidemiologists, but it's worrying how basic this is.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#173

Post by gatane »

ipaddr wrote: post #109
harvey9 wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what if lots of ebola was lifted up in a tornado and deposited on Los Angeles?

Now we have the basis of a movie.

Better, a one hit song (8 years ago) https://youtu.be/qlnsHiaAoYo

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#174

Post by throwaway920102 »

chimprich wrote: post #169
rngname22 wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why the lab in question would be doing secret work on coronaviruses what was secret about it? the lab in Wuhan was literally doing research in 2015 on how bat coronaviruses could adapt to spread in humans vs ACE2 receptors and developed their own strain: https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985 from the linked study: "Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus express…

Thanks, that's exactly what I mean. They were publishing their work and making public what viruses they were working on with collaborators and public databases etc. There doesn't seem to be a plausible explanation for why they'd be working on a related but entirely new virus and keeping it secret. I suppose they could have just received some samples and then that triggered an immediate outbreak before anyone heard of…

I'm totally trying to be good faith here, but are you aware of the recent admissions by NIH that EcoHealth (the funders of the research at WIV) basically did exactly this?

"On Wednesday, the NIH sent a letter to members of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce that acknowledged two facts. One was that EcoHealth Alliance, a New York City–based nonprofit that partners with far-flung laboratories to research and prevent the outbreak of emerging diseases, did indeed enhance a bat coronavirus to become potentially more infectious to humans, which the NIH letter described as an “unexpected result” of the research it funded that was carried out in partnership with the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The second was that EcoHealth Alliance violated the terms of its grant conditions stipulating that it had to report if its research increased the viral growth of a pathogen by tenfold."

Further in the article:

"As scientists remain in a stalemate over the pandemic’s origins, another disclosure last month made clear that EcoHealth Alliance, in partnership with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, was aiming to do the kind of research that could accidentally have led to the pandemic. On September 20, a group of internet sleuths calling themselves DRASTIC (short for Decentralized Radical Autonomous Search Team Investigating COVID-19) released a leaked $14 million grant proposal that EcoHealth Alliance had submitted in 2018 to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).

It proposed partnering with the Wuhan Institute of Virology and constructing SARS-related bat coronaviruses into which they would insert “human-specific cleavage sites” as a way to “evaluate growth potential” of the pathogens. Perhaps not surprisingly, DARPA rejected the proposal, assessing that it failed to fully address the risks of gain-of-function research."

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/10/nih-admits-funding-r...

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#175

Post by tinus_hn »

slenk wrote: post #48
jryhjythtr wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>a forecast that goes out 6+ months is silly. Sure is, which is why it's odd we've been bombarded with endless graphs with months of predictions, over the past 2.5 years.

Doesn't seem odd for news outlets, unfortunately.

Hyped up drama sells newspapers. Unfortunately.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#176

Post by thedorkknight »

LatteLazy wrote: post #108
thedorkknight wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Side note, but is the moon landing hoax popular still? I got nostalgia when you mentioned it, boy howdy do I miss the x files days of conspiracy theories

6% of Americans (10% of millennial Americans) supposedly. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing_conspiracy_theori... Despite actual pictures taken recently...

Interesting! I honestly would not have guessed it was that high

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#177

Post by VancouverMan »

joshuamorton wrote: post #167
VancouverMan wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Josh, I recommend that you do even just some basic research into this topic. It's quite complex, and I can't do it justice here. Masking certainly does cause accessibility problems for many people. For example, people with mobility and other issues involving their fingers, hands, arms, shoulders, neck, and ears can find it quite difficult, or even impossible, to put on, to wear, or to remove a mask. Masking can also…

> Josh, I recommend that you do even just some basic research into this topic. It's quite complex, and I can't do it justice here. I have. > For example, people with mobility and other issues involving their fingers, hands, arms, shoulders, neck, and ears can find it quite difficult, or even impossible, to put on, to wear, or to remove a mask. This is minimal and solvable. If someone needs assistance putting on a mas…

Thank you for admitting that masks do cause accessibility and other problems, and as such have a severe cost associated with their use.

This brings us back to our cost/benefit analysis from earlier.

The repeated waves of infection in many regions when forced masking was in place show that the benefits of widespread everyday masking are minimal, and perhaps even non-existent.

Combined with the significant costs of masking, we can confidently conclude that masking is not effective, and therefore should not be considered to be a technique that works.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#178

Post by justapassenger »

benreesman wrote: post #153
justapassenger wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To study how they evolve and their potential to become a problem? Yeah, that’s the only way to go. And given how fast viruses evolve, there’s no real alternative.

I think everyone agrees that observing live virus in the lab is a critical (if dangerous) part of studying them. Intentionally engineering them as high as possible on transmissibility and morbidity is bioweapon development being money laundered through conventional science: it’s an insane thing to do. Leaving SARS-COV-2 out of it completely: there have indisputably been other leaks. It’s the height of irresponsibilit…

And you assume that flu won’t evolve in nature? And can only start to learn about superflu once everyone is locked down at home?

Also, gain function refers to basically any change to pathogen. Banning it is like banning 5G, because it could be used to steer nano bots.

And you also heavily overstate our abilities to actually mutate viruses in a way we’d want.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#179

Post by joshuamorton »

VancouverMan wrote: post #177
joshuamorton wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Josh, I recommend that you do even just some basic research into this topic. It's quite complex, and I can't do it justice here. I have. > For example, people with mobility and other issues involving their fingers, hands, arms, shoulders, neck, and ears can find it quite difficult, or even impossible, to put on, to wear, or to remove a mask. This is minimal and solvable. If someone needs assistance putting on a mas…

Thank you for admitting that masks do cause accessibility and other problems, and as such have a severe cost associated with their use. This brings us back to our cost/benefit analysis from earlier. The repeated waves of infection in many regions when forced masking was in place show that the benefits of widespread everyday masking are minimal, and perhaps even non-existent. Combined with the significant costs of mas…

> Thank you for admitting that masks do cause accessibility and other

To the extent that I said there are accessibility concerns with masks, I have also claimed that all are solvable while continuing to wear masks. Further, the idea that someone, somewhere, might be inconvenienced isn't enough to suggest that they shouldn't be used or mandated, that's silly.

> and as such have a severe cost associated with their use.

I never stated this, please do not put words in my mouth. If you're going to not only lie about the science, but also lie about what I've said, I'll disengage. Your need to lie should demonstrate to anyone else following along how reliable your claims are.

You continue to hold masks to a comical standard, and lie about them to do it. Don't.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#180

Post by blkhp19 »

msyoung2012 wrote: post #2

Leaked documents show the Ugandan government is not expecting the current Ebola outbreak to be contained, but rather expect it to spread rapidly into the deadliest in Ugandan history, killing 500 and infecting at least 1200 by May of next year.

Only 500 by May?
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