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Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#151

Post by mrguyorama »

duxup wrote: post #86
throwaway920102 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean it could evolve to be airborne in the wild or in a research lab doing intentional gain of function research (a practice for which funding was temporarily halted by Obama) and hybridization much like has been done at BSL-4 facilities worldwide unchecked including by EcoHealth alliance with bat coronaviruses via US funding at the WIV prior to the Covid outbreak in Wuhan. https://www.science.org/content/article/n…

It could evolve is a big if. A lot of viruses could and become disastrous, but that’s a long shot.

"It's a long shot" except for the several times in the past few hundred years they have done just that? We can do statistics on how often this happens. We know that we should expect it periodically. Even Obama, while on his way out, was able to tell Trump "hey expect a pandemic event soon". We literally knew this was coming.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#152

Post by mrguyorama »

MichaelCollins wrote: post #64
photochemsyn wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if that's enough to explain the hysteria... for example, people have published studies on the effectiveness of handwashing without fearing being attacked on Twitter as agents of misinformation (results are mixed, though generally beneficial, alcohol rubbing seems somewhat less helpful than soap and water, and a good scrubbing is better): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9250256/ > "To develop…

Another part of the puzzle is telling people to wash their hands has been a mainstream message for decades. It wasn't asking people do to something new and uncomfortable.

And predictably, about 30% of people utterly refuse to do it. Usually for stupid reasons. Some people are just so anti-authority that they would seemingly cut off their own leg to spite an authority figure telling them legs are important.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#153

Post by benreesman »

justapassenger wrote: post #139
MichaelCollins wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it isn't.

To study how they evolve and their potential to become a problem? Yeah, that’s the only way to go. And given how fast viruses evolve, there’s no real alternative.

I think everyone agrees that observing live virus in the lab is a critical (if dangerous) part of studying them.

Intentionally engineering them as high as possible on transmissibility and morbidity is bioweapon development being money laundered through conventional science: it’s an insane thing to do.

Leaving SARS-COV-2 out of it completely: there have indisputably been other leaks. It’s the height of irresponsibility and shortsightedness to engineer civilization-ending viruses, which is why it’s banned under multiple international conventions that GoF is a workaround for.

You don’t need a vaccine for the fucking superflu if you never develop the fucking superflu.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#154

Post by jryhjythtr »

ASalazarMX wrote: post #93
jryhjythtr wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>a forecast that goes out 6+ months is silly. Sure is, which is why it's odd we've been bombarded with endless graphs with months of predictions, over the past 2.5 years.

I guess as it transformed from epidemic to pandemic to endemic, it became increasingly predictable. The duration and peaks of the last waves could even be predicted by months indeed, as measures and behaviors remained practically unchanged. Not one of these predictions encompassed six months, though.

>Not one of these predictions encompassed six months, though.

I beg to differ. Here's a sample of what we got, on a daily basis, in the UK:

https://www.google.com/search?q=uk+covid+predictions&tbm=isc...

Plenty of those are dated from the early months of 2020.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#155

Post by cmrivers »

cmrivers wrote: post #27

The outbreak in Uganda is troubling, but a forecast that goes out 6+ months is silly. No professional infectious disease modeler will forecast out more than a few weeks because the trajectory of the outbreak changes in response to interventions and behaviors.

Update, this comment refers to the original blog post submission, which pulled out forecasted numbers with no context. The Telegraph article is better.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#156

Post by jryhjythtr »

yamtaddle wrote: post #74
jryhjythtr wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>a forecast that goes out 6+ months is silly. Sure is, which is why it's odd we've been bombarded with endless graphs with months of predictions, over the past 2.5 years.

How've I not noticed this? I've instead seen a whole lot of graphs with no prediction whatsoever and lots and lots of people in positions of authority who seem totally unable to extrapolate from those in their heads, resulting in idiotic back-and-forth on various restrictions for the first 18 or so months of the pandemic. Shit like schools releasing plans ahead of the school year that they then immediately ignore bec…

Sounds like you're in the UK. Do you consume any mainstream media?

https://www.google.com/search?q=uk+covid+predictions&tbm=isc...

I didn't take in much news, and now avoid it more than ever, but what little I did was wall-to-wall with projections complete with big scary peaks and steep rises in numbers. I dread to think of the state of mind of someone who watched more like the average number of TV hours (for me it is zero), and took in all of this with an uncritical mind.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#157

Post by duxup »

mrguyorama wrote: post #151
duxup wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could evolve is a big if. A lot of viruses could and become disastrous, but that’s a long shot.

"It's a long shot" except for the several times in the past few hundred years they have done just that? We can do statistics on how often this happens. We know that we should expect it periodically. Even Obama, while on his way out, was able to tell Trump "hey expect a pandemic event soon". We literally knew this was coming.

> except for the several times in the past few hundred years they have done just that?

Compared to what? The times it didn’t?

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#158

Post by uoaei »

MichaelCollins wrote: post #44
uoaei wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ebolavirus and coronavirus are very, very different. There is little in the way of comparison, transmissibility being only one of many differences.

He didn't say that ebolavirus is similar to coronavirus. He said that Nurgle worshiping virologists are probably hard at work trying to 'enhance' ebola to be more transmissible, which is probably true.

The point is, assuming that gain-of-function would have a viable path at turning a bloodborne pathogen into an airborne pathogen, rather than simply making an airborne pathogen more transmissible, is disappointing in its complete misunderstanding of virology. It de-legitimizes the point they're trying to make.

Lab leak theory is more than a big "what if", it has merit to it. To try to make an analogous argument toward how ebola might become more transmissible in a similar manner ruins their credibility.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#159

Post by dwheeler »

exhilaration wrote: post #4

The headline is scary but #1 Ebola isn't airborne and #2 it's super deadly which means it kills before it really has a chance to spread widely.

Right. Ebola spreads via contact with infected blood or body fluids. That's terrible for those infected, and we should definitely take steps to counter its spread. But that's not at all the same level of risk as airborne spreading.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#160

Post by LatteLazy »

Closi wrote: post #141
LatteLazy wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. So is denying climate change or the moon landings...

> So is denying climate change or the moon landings... Ah yes, so I would assume that the WHO would conclusively say that the lab leak theory is incorrect then? https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/09/who-sago-cov... Oh... they say they are still investigating it and that the theory should be left on the table... but I guess the British Medical Journal would say it's total nonsense right?! https://www.bmj.com…

And this is the amazing leap so many people seem to make: If it is technically possible, then it must be true.

That's what baffles me here: "We cannot conclusively say it's wrong" so it must be right. When did that become a popular mode of reasoning? I can only assume people are so desperate to believe they will swallow this rather than accept reality.

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