The outbreak in Uganda is troubling, but a forecast that goes out 6+ months is silly. No professional infectious disease modeler will forecast out more than a few weeks because the trajectory of the outbreak changes in response to interventions and behaviors.
How far out did the Covid forecasts look, to justify global lockdowns?
Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
81–90 of 191 posts
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
That sounds... wrong? What if the 6+ month forecast assuming no interventions is useful to compel an intervention, and the 2-3 week one is not?
If “useful to compel” is a criteria, we can jump straight to flat-out lying and dispose with the statistics part.
If you're confused on that point vs sinister authoritarian actions, then the risk of other people lying to you is far from your biggest problem.
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#83Their graph has two lines: (month 0 == december)
- totalcases = 180*month+300
- totaldeaths = 83*month+84
Recent experience with covid shows that usually epidemics initially grow exponentially.
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
Additionally, most of the most-at-risk population has lived through the AIDS horror. A good gay friend of mine roughly summarized it as "we gays know how bad diseases can get, and fuck it my dating life even after 2 years of pandemic is not as important as is my life". Once it was clear that MSM were (once again) a high-risk group, they all went back to either reducing contacts or at least wearing condoms. In contras…
As a bisexual man I think the LGBT community is getting far too little credit for how they reacted to this. Men getting vaccinated essentially saved the world from more spread at a very critical time. It wasn't just personal responsibility and willingness to get vaccinated and reduce number of partners. Gay men shouted from the rooftops at public health authorities to get them to step up testing, treatment, and vacci…
I ask this as a gay man with some awareness of the history of AZT.
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#85Earlier quoted context omitted.
Additionally, most of the most-at-risk population has lived through the AIDS horror. A good gay friend of mine roughly summarized it as "we gays know how bad diseases can get, and fuck it my dating life even after 2 years of pandemic is not as important as is my life". Once it was clear that MSM were (once again) a high-risk group, they all went back to either reducing contacts or at least wearing condoms. In contras…
Masking was never inherently a political issue, even if some people tried to make it one. From a purely scientific perspective, and regardless of one's political leanings or preferences, it was obvious from the start that widespread everyday masking simply isn't effective, nor is it practical. If such masking was even just somewhat effective, the entire situation would have been over by mid-2020 at the latest. That c…
Because you seem to mean it as "prevents 100% of transmission", and therefore anything less than that means masking isn't effective.
And that's simply untrue. Masking does, really, truly, assist with covid spread. It doesn't prevent 100% of transmission, because nothing does, especially something that requires active participation, but yeah it helps a lot if people actually do it.
It's likely a large part of the reason that I've never caught covid, despite a fairly active social life and continued in-person office work for almost a year now. And why the social events I attend, where you can have a hundred people in close quarters breathing on each other haven't had recorded transmissions, despite recorded isolated cases.
> It causes many accessibility problems, it causes childhood development problems, it causes social strife (including discrimination), it enables abusive policing, and so forth.
There's no evidence for any of these claims, and in fact you'll find the accessibility community strongly favors masks as immunocompromised people exist. Widespread seasonal masking has been common in other countries for decades (since SARS-1, two decades ago), and there's no evidence that it causes childhood development issues. There's, like, one academic paper whose conclusion is that mask wearing makes it difficult for preschoolers to detect the emotion of a person wearing a mask. But any extension of that to impacts on childhood psychological development isn't academic, it's you making things up.
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#86The headline is scary but #1 Ebola isn't airborne and #2 it's super deadly which means it kills before it really has a chance to spread widely.
I mean it could evolve to be airborne in the wild or in a research lab doing intentional gain of function research (a practice for which funding was temporarily halted by Obama) and hybridization much like has been done at BSL-4 facilities worldwide unchecked including by EcoHealth alliance with bat coronaviruses via US funding at the WIV prior to the Covid outbreak in Wuhan. https://www.science.org/content/article/n…
A lot of viruses could and become disastrous, but that’s a long shot.
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#87The outbreak in Uganda is troubling, but a forecast that goes out 6+ months is silly. No professional infectious disease modeler will forecast out more than a few weeks because the trajectory of the outbreak changes in response to interventions and behaviors.
How far out did the Covid forecasts look, to justify global lockdowns?
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#88The headline is scary but #1 Ebola isn't airborne and #2 it's super deadly which means it kills before it really has a chance to spread widely.
I don’t know if you have read some of the tweets but it seems that ebola can remain dormant in some of the recovered individuals and then be transmitted(sexually in this case) years latter.
About a 2021 outbreak: "The Ebola virus is known to persist in some survivors, particularly in places where it can lay low from the immune system, such as the testicles or eyeballs. A 2016 study reported resurgence of the virus in a survivor’s seminal fluid more than 500 days after the initial infection.
Still, the more than five-year span was “shocking” to many virologists and public health experts. And it raises a variety of concerns for the many survivors of past outbreaks, some of whom may have had mild cases of Ebola without realizing it. In particular, many people known to have survived Ebola face stigmatization, and the possibility of years-long persistence is likely to amplify that problem."
Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#89Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases
#90Earlier quoted context omitted.
How far out did the Covid forecasts look, to justify global lockdowns?
The fear with COVID was mutation of the disease into something more deadly and more contagious. What looks like fearmongering now was cautious behavior around mutation at the time. Conversely, Ebola isn't likely to mutate now, so we don't need that same level of caution.
We had over 1 million deaths in the US.
You travel back to 2016 and tell people we'll have a pandemic in the US, 1 million people will die, and then large groups of people will attempt to shrug that off as "nothing to get concerned about", people would find that incomprehensible.
If I were to post a comment on HN in 2016 suggesting that people would shrug off 1 million deaths due to a pandemic because it doesn't align with their worldview I would have been downvoted into oblivious for holding such a laughably ridiculous and cynical opinion.
Same could be said of the countless other climate related impacts that people in the very near distant past would consider horrific and impossible.
The power of the "this is fine" culture to not see reality is terrifying.