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New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

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Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#71

Post by supertrope »

pfdietz wrote: post #54
Simon_O_Rourke wrote: post #2

This is deeply irresponsible by the CSNA and is a disaster just waiting to happen on the ground. Is it laziness on the part of their flight team or just crass disregard for others safety?

It's economically hardnosed of them. It's on average cheaper to just take the chance and pay off damages if someone is injured or killed. Remember, the highest chance of fatality will be in densely populated lower latitude countries where the monetary cost of killing someone is lower.

Two thirds of the planet is water. Most land is uninhabited. Population and property is concentrated in cities. The chance of debris hitting you is less than a lightning strike.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#73

Post by dangle1 »

MonkeyMalarky wrote: post #67
Simon_O_Rourke wrote: post #2

This is deeply irresponsible by the CSNA and is a disaster just waiting to happen on the ground. Is it laziness on the part of their flight team or just crass disregard for others safety?

I'd chock it up under crass disregard for others safety. They drop boosters on their own people and don't care: https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/china-keeps-dropping... >China's defiance of this norm has resulted in some horrific scenes as its boosters have periodically crashed into villages.

And possibly a fairing half dropped onto a populated area from a different launch yesterday:

https://twitter.com/cnspaceflight/status/1589289240776839168

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#74

Post by cfraenkel »

Denvercoder9 wrote: post #64
elteto wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you know this risk was low because? Are you saying that you had more information on this than those agencies tracking the reentry? Otherwise you are speculating.

Those agencies tracking reentry also are of the opinion that the risk to any individual is negligble: see e.g. https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1587858672373403654

Duh - it's going to come down in one place. The odds of "any" one individual being in that exact place is negligible. On the other hand, where it comes down is under it's flight path, which is a predictable series of points on a line, ordered in time. If you (or your airplane) happen to be in one of those points at the same time, your odds go way way up (for a few minutes). The flight in question was no doubt going to be under the boosters flight path. You know this ahead of time, and you can obviously delay with minimal consequence (minimal compared to an airliner being hit with falling debris, anyway.) In that situation, it'd be negligent to say 'screw it, the odds are in our favor, lets just ignore it.'

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#75

Post by pfdietz »

dvt wrote: post #66
pfdietz wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a major overreaction.

Not according to the ESA[1], NASA[1], Portugese airspace authorities, or our captain. Or my dad, for that matter, who works for NASA (some of his projects specifically involve space debris cleanup). But thanks for your input, random internet stranger. [1] https://www.space.com/nasa-esa-space-chiefs-condemn-china-ro...

Nowhere in that rather bombastic report did I see any argument justifying altering any airline flight due to the reentry.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#76

Post by mrweasel »

tostonescon wrote: post #72

Genuinely curious - why is China doing uncontrolled reentry any different? As far as I understand it the vast majority of rockets have uncontrolled re-entry, save for spaceplanes, falcon 9, and more recently electron.

> As far as I understand it the vast majority of rockets have uncontrolled

I don't think that's true anymore. There's a Danish radio program[1] that talked about this and apparently China is the only country/operator that still have uncontrolled reentry rocket stages. Everyone else have committed to controlled reentry.

Looking that the possible places where the rocket can hit populated areas. It looks like they went out of their way to ensure maximum coverage of Africa. Reentry a little earlier and they would have been almost ensured that it would hit the Atlantic Ocean.

[1]: https://www.radio4.dk/program/den-nye-rumalder/?gid=43389&ti...

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#77

Post by chihuahua »

supertrope wrote: post #69
elteto wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The won’t even pay for any damages. They would never allow one of these to reenter over US airspace or other large, powerful countries. But if it falls in the middle of some small country, tough luck getting paid for damages.

China signed the Outer Space Treaty. Your rocket your damage your bill.

But how is anyone going to collect on the bill, if China doesn't want to pay?

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#78

Post by zasdffaa »

graderjs wrote: post #6
Simon_O_Rourke wrote: post #2

This is deeply irresponsible by the CSNA and is a disaster just waiting to happen on the ground. Is it laziness on the part of their flight team or just crass disregard for others safety?

I agree. I’m all for China achieving things but this seems really inconsiderate and irresponsible. Dropping debris on populations is unacceptable as nearly happened over the last few years according to this story. Clashes with their environmental stance and desire to be responsible global power. Why?

I can't answer your question but be aware that you are looking through a very western lens, and probably US-centric lens particularly, and other cultures can see things in very different way, starting with assumptions (or simply unthought practices) that you have nothing to compare with.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#79

Post by mcculley »

supertrope wrote: post #71
pfdietz wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's economically hardnosed of them. It's on average cheaper to just take the chance and pay off damages if someone is injured or killed. Remember, the highest chance of fatality will be in densely populated lower latitude countries where the monetary cost of killing someone is lower.

Two thirds of the planet is water. Most land is uninhabited. Population and property is concentrated in cities. The chance of debris hitting you is less than a lightning strike.

There is a difference between the chance of debris hitting a person and the chance of it hitting any person.

Regardless of the probability, there is a problem with choosing that risk for someone else without their consent.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#80

Post by MichaelZuo »

ch4s3 wrote: post #59
xtian wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just anything more conclusive than social media posts. An actual investigation into these reports and purported debris fragments. According to Wikipedia, Cotes d'Ivoire is one of the largest economies in West Africa, representing 40% of the total GDP of the Economic Community of West African States.

There are numerous scientists and government agencies on the record making official press releases claiming to have tracked the rocket debris to an area of Cotes d'Ivoire. There are photos in Cotes d'Ivoire of wreckage consistent with the rocket. Why do you need an "official investigation"? Who would you trust to do that? Why are you taking the word of the Chinese government?

The Verge article links to a 'local news site' afriksoir.net that looks really shady, similar to clickbait spam sites.

Registered on April 9th, 2019 with GoDaddy according to WHOIS.

It's top story today is just commenting on some Ivorian politican's Twitter feed https://afriksoir.net/lobognon-junte-goita-integrite-mali-jo...

And it's not linked to any established West African news organization.

This took me about 10 minutes of digging to uncover. So if Verge thinks this is a credible source that really speaks volumes.

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