Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

aerospace.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 111 posts

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#51

Post by ghufran_syed »

ch4s3 wrote: post #37
throwaway4good wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was referring to them taking calculated risks; not doing exactly the same thing.

Dumping 20 tons of metal from orbit isn't a "calculated risk" its sloppy and dangerous. They could have built the rocket using 50 years of experience knowing this could be an issue, instead they just lie and say it will burn up. They already dropped one on a village.

the real issue is “what is the probability of human injury or death?” Is it 1% per launch? 0.01% 0.000001%

The area of the earth’s surface occupied by humans (not their stuff, but the people themselves) is around 8000 km^2 (1m^2 per person) out of a total Earth surface area of 510 million km^2. so the probability is around 1.6E-5 or 0.0016% per launch. This obviously doesn’t account for the specific trajectory or population distribution, but gives us a rough order of magnitude.

I would prefer they didn’t do it also, and it definitely loses them international good will - but it’s a pretty low (but non-zero) risk.

[typo corrected]

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#52

Post by FpUser »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #10
throwaway4good wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a calculated risk; perhaps similar to what have been done by the US and Russia when their space ambitions were at their highest.

Ah, the good old “whatabout the US did it 50 years ago therefore we can do it today”. Also used to justify all sorts of atrocities, imperialism, IP theft, etc.

>"the US did it 50 years ago therefore we can do it today"

The US / or other countries for that matter "did it XXX years ago" to advance their goals and get more prosperous at the expense of the others. If you want to punish countries for doing similar things now it is totally ok, as long as you punish the same crimes committed earlier. The crime must be paid for. This of course will never happen so when you are trying to tell other countries that they should not be doing things that you've done yourself and got away with the only reasonable answer you can expect is fuck you very much.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#53

Post by FpUser »

vasco wrote: post #22
k_paleologos wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reports suggest that they require only 3 launches in this configuration LM5B where the core stage falls back, for the construction of their station. They might have made the assumption that chances of damage due to debris is very low considering that only 3 launches are to happen with this configuration. In case even if there is damage on the ground, there are treaties that govern the liabilities in case. It would be…

> In case even if there is damage on the ground, there are treaties that govern the liabilities in case. If it fell on your house with you sleeping inside I'm sure the liabilities treaties would make your family be totally ok with it.

When governments, including your own make these kinds of decisions they do not give a flying fuck about your particular family. They only car if it will cost them election, loosing giant lawsuit etc.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#54

Post by pfdietz »

Simon_O_Rourke wrote: post #2

This is deeply irresponsible by the CSNA and is a disaster just waiting to happen on the ground. Is it laziness on the part of their flight team or just crass disregard for others safety?

It's economically hardnosed of them. It's on average cheaper to just take the chance and pay off damages if someone is injured or killed. Remember, the highest chance of fatality will be in densely populated lower latitude countries where the monetary cost of killing someone is lower.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#56

Post by xtian »

ch4s3 wrote: post #50
xtian wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tried Googling for an official report or investigation but I couldn’t find one. Do you know if any of these multiple governments issued one?

Astro physicist Johnathan McDowell[1] was tracking it. I doubt the Cotes d'Ivoire did an official investigation due to their general lack of funds, and China denies that the Long March can even reenter the atmosphere so they didn't go check it out. Here's another story that references local reports[2]. An article from Ars quoting the US Space Force confirming entry over the Atlantic headed toward Cotes d'Ivoire[3]. W…

Just anything more conclusive than social media posts. An actual investigation into these reports and purported debris fragments.

According to Wikipedia, Cotes d'Ivoire is one of the largest economies in West Africa, representing 40% of the total GDP of the Economic Community of West African States.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#57

Post by speedylight »

pfdietz wrote: post #55
dvt wrote: post #29

My flight from the Canary Islands to Portugal was delayed for ~2 hours because of this. Everyone was a bit on edge and it seems extremely irresponsible, dangerous, and wasteful.

That's a major overreaction.

Better be safe than sorry. Uncontrollable entry is actually uncontrollable and anything could happen.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#58

Post by pfdietz »

speedylight wrote: post #57
pfdietz wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a major overreaction.

Better be safe than sorry. Uncontrollable entry is actually uncontrollable and anything could happen.

Such decisions cannot be made in a binary, absolutist way. Risk is reduced to some minimal level, not to zero. The risk here was very low.

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#59

Post by ch4s3 »

xtian wrote: post #56
ch4s3 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Astro physicist Johnathan McDowell[1] was tracking it. I doubt the Cotes d'Ivoire did an official investigation due to their general lack of funds, and China denies that the Long March can even reenter the atmosphere so they didn't go check it out. Here's another story that references local reports[2]. An article from Ars quoting the US Space Force confirming entry over the Atlantic headed toward Cotes d'Ivoire[3]. W…

Just anything more conclusive than social media posts. An actual investigation into these reports and purported debris fragments. According to Wikipedia, Cotes d'Ivoire is one of the largest economies in West Africa, representing 40% of the total GDP of the Economic Community of West African States.

There are numerous scientists and government agencies on the record making official press releases claiming to have tracked the rocket debris to an area of Cotes d'Ivoire. There are photos in Cotes d'Ivoire of wreckage consistent with the rocket. Why do you need an "official investigation"? Who would you trust to do that? Why are you taking the word of the Chinese government?

Re: New Long March 5B Uncontrolled Reentry Tracked by Aerospace's Experts

#60

Post by justinclift »

FpUser wrote: post #53
vasco wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In case even if there is damage on the ground, there are treaties that govern the liabilities in case. If it fell on your house with you sleeping inside I'm sure the liabilities treaties would make your family be totally ok with it.

When governments, including your own make these kinds of decisions they do not give a flying fuck about your particular family. They only car if it will cost them election, loosing giant lawsuit etc.

Kind of wonder how it'd go, if the rocket accidentally took out the head of a mafia family or some equally dangerous group. ;)
Post reply on HN