Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Chinese government does not care about its people catching covid. It is not about covid but about clamping down. It's a training exercise for what to do during rebellion.
Are the Chinese people at risk of rebelling and overthrowing their government or is this more weird anti-China xenophobia based on absolutely nothing?
Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test
301–307 of 307 posts
Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test
#302Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well I don’t know what the mainstream theory was in the US but in the Netherlands it was ‘well if due to our lockdowns R is smaller than 1 the disease will just die down’. Which is obviously nonsensical in a pandemic.
If R is lower than 1, the disease will die down. If it's greater than 1 it will flare up (by definition). China has reached a stage where they have essentially eradicated it within China. They still import cases though into areas where R>1. When that happens, they get a flare up, and then they clamp down with massive testing and, if it gets bad enough, lockdowns, until they eradicate it from that area again. Now at t…
Either way the R values theory was never going to work because there was always going to be a big part of the population (animals, people abroad) that can’t be controlled with lockdowns or vaccine mandates. And that also should have been known.
And lastly, R values theories make for nice, easy to explain pop science, but it’s all statistics with all the downsides: the R value that’s on the news is just a number calculated from limited tests, and those tests can be manipulated. And it’s part of a random process; R>1 doesn’t ‘mean flare ups will occur’. It means the chance is higher that the numbers will go up. But they can also randomly go down.
All interesting for pop science and for making models and reports but a lot less useful for political decisionmaking in the real world.
Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test
#303Earlier quoted context omitted.
Some people here in HN said that the pandemic would normalise using masks - the way things are now every time I see someone wearing a mask I can’t help but think that they are ill and infectious; it’s very very rare. So glad that we are back to the way it was.
I just got a phone message reminder from my County health department emphasizing getting the booster. It’s motivating me to go ahead and put it on my priority list, at my specialist center there are a ton of cancer patients and the masks are now stated as mandatory for all. Not enforced but still, it’s posted. I thought masks were the clearest indicator of a person’s perspective on themselves and their role in societ…
Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test
#304Earlier quoted context omitted.
Here in the Netherlands, it may not be policy, but a large number of people just don't care anymore. People with symptoms like coughing and changing tone of voice are still going to school, work and parties. No one wears masks except for some tourists or other foreigners. When planning an event, not a single moment is thought about COVID.
I don't care anymore because I've eyeballed that on average 5 people are dying per day (1825 per year) [1], and it doesn't seem to be changing. That's less than flu season (which is more like 3000 to 5000 per year). I don't have sources for the flu. I read it somewhere, I might be underestimating or overestimating a bit. And of course, all those deaths are horrible, and I feel that pain when I contemplate that for a…
Personal observation ( which contracts established 'science' ). There were always some 'long' aspects of all diseases including for colds/coughs/flu/tuberculosis etc. Nothing special with 'covid'.
Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test
#305Earlier quoted context omitted.
If R is lower than 1, the disease will die down. If it's greater than 1 it will flare up (by definition). China has reached a stage where they have essentially eradicated it within China. They still import cases though into areas where R>1. When that happens, they get a flare up, and then they clamp down with massive testing and, if it gets bad enough, lockdowns, until they eradicate it from that area again. Now at t…
The vaccines were tested and approved so scientifically it should have been known before the rollout started that it wouldn’t work. So once the vaccines were approved (December 2020) either we knew all along it wasn’t going to work and the R values theory was just psuedoscientific fraud to get the population to comply, or we didn’t know and the approval process was faulty. Either way the R values theory was never goi…
The problem is that this data was gathered with a different version of the virus than we have now, and it was gathered with relatively fresh vaccinations. Even pre-Delta, you could see immunity waning leading to increased transmission in Israel. With Omicron, the efficacy of the vaccines is also much less.
That said, from all the evidence we have, the existing vaccines still do reduce transmission, but not enough to prevent epidemic spread. There are a lot of numbers, because every study has a different population and different ways of measuring, but roughly speaking, being vaccinated cuts your risk of contracting and transmitting COVID by something on the order of 50%. That's a lot better than nothing, but COVID is so contagious that it's not enough.
The "R values theory" is perfectly reasonable and almost tautologically correct, and works regardless of an animal reservoir and imported cases from travel. We have the same issue with imported cases with Measles, but hardly anyone gets Measles, because almost everyone is vaccinated, and the R value in the population is much less than 1. If you import a case, that case infects less than 1 person on average, who infects less than 1 person on average, etc, until it dies out. RIt would be great if COVID and COVID vaccines were like Measles, but unfortunately the vaccine isn't yet good enough.
Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test
#306Earlier quoted context omitted.
Lockdowns certainly can stop geometric rise of an infection and it can make sense if you don't want to have people who might have been saved dying in hospital corridors due to lack of capacity but IMHO it doesn't make any sense whatsoever as a long term solution if the lockdown is not globally coordinated to eradicate the microbe at once. If the lockdown is not global, it will keep coming back. That's why I wonder wh…
> I wonder what China is trying to achieve here. From reading scientific papers about the occurrence of complications in people who've had Covid twice, it looks like the virus inflicts long-lasting damage to the body, even if it isn't readily apparent. People how have Covid twice have a higher rate of complication the second time around (including post-Covid syndrome a.k.a. long covid). There are no reasons to think…
I had no idea this was openly discussed over there (though I suppose I should have guessed it was).
Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test
#307Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most of us are capable of distinguishing Chinese citizens from the CCP. It would be helpful to this discussion if you were to do the same.
The final step, you've unified the two sentences: "Chinese people are docile and weak or are evil, greedy liars."