241–250 of 300 posts
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That isn't quite right. What it implies is that debt service is a significant fraction of their margins, which is a subtle but actually quite significant difference. If a grocery store makes 1% profit on each item it sells, and its debt service cost is 1% of its revenue (making it roughly "1% of its cost") a doubling of debt service cost wipes their margin to zero.
But only requires 1% increase in revenue to sort out.
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That could be skewed because they changed how M2 was calculated during the pandemic.
This makes me feel better. /s
https://collabfund.com/blog/the-fed-isnt-printing-as-much-mo...
Also money printing isn't necessarily inflationary if the money stays as bank reserves. Unless... The Fed buys treasuries and the government dumps the money on the economy.
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That is _not_ exactly what you are talking about: food prices do not normally go up 24% a year. Rent prices do not normally go up 10-15% a year. If their number is cherry-picked, give a real number yourself. Anecdotally, my grocery bills are easily 30%+ from what they were last year, and the same is true for many people I've asked.
That's still what I'm talking about. Any number you're looking at that's "in a year" is falling victim to the time-shifted demand effects from the pandemic. Compare 2022 to 2019 and look for the average change over three years. That's the real signal over the temporary noise. There are still some real effects, but it's much smaller than all the one-year-over-year numbers seem to indicate.
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"U.S. oil production is almost 12 million barrels per day. By the end of this year, it will be up by about one million barrels per day compared to when President Biden took office, and it is on track to reach a new annual high in 2023. However, a number of industry participants have suggested that, even with today’s high prices, they are concerned about investing in production when prices could fall in the future. Th…
> $67 to $72 per barrel. The WH is going to have to wait a bit for those prices. Right now WTI is $89/bbl: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1 Last time price fell below $72 was December '21.
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That's still what I'm talking about. Any number you're looking at that's "in a year" is falling victim to the time-shifted demand effects from the pandemic. Compare 2022 to 2019 and look for the average change over three years. That's the real signal over the temporary noise. There are still some real effects, but it's much smaller than all the one-year-over-year numbers seem to indicate.
This doesn't make sense. How can cost of groceries be up 30% over a three year period be normal. That would leave everyone starving within a decade, and obviously can't be right. Same with the rent increases.
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I've been waiting for the real estate market to crash for 20 years... On the other, my savings are worth less and less.
In the US? Prices from 2011-2016 or so were not that bad, and were lower than 2006 in many cities.
Steady growth since 1998 https://parispropertygroup.com/blog/2017/how-paris-real-esta...
This is terrible news. Without a recession to curb inflation, the fed will have to get far more extreme with interest rates to get inflation back down. I thought that rates might top out around the end of the year, but now the fed may have to keep raising aggressively well into next year. Mortgages and the housing market are going to get slammed. This is going to get much worse than I previously expected.
But inflation is already lower in this report. I am not forecasting the future-- I have no idea-- but its not clear that inflation is getting worse.
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This makes me feel better. /s
It should. https://collabfund.com/blog/the-fed-isnt-printing-as-much-mo... Also money printing isn't necessarily inflationary if the money stays as bank reserves. Unless... The Fed buys treasuries and the government dumps the money on the economy.
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This doesn't make sense. How can cost of groceries be up 30% over a three year period be normal. That would leave everyone starving within a decade, and obviously can't be right. Same with the rent increases.
It would not leave everyone starving because salaries go up too, 10% inflation does exist. Argentina deals with 100% yearly inflation and has not blown up yet.
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It would not leave everyone starving because salaries go up too, 10% inflation does exist. Argentina deals with 100% yearly inflation and has not blown up yet.
Salaries arnt going up that much. McDonald's near me is still offering 12.50. At best the people in these places got a few more dollars an hour