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This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…
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> adjust for money supply inflation (spiked at around 24%) instead of price inflation (spiked at around 9%) The former is a fake metric. Measuring changes in the monetary base [1] is a thing. But it’s seldom accurately reflected in a single figure. Also, the 2.6% is real GDP growth. Current-dollar growth was 6.7% annualised [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_base [2] https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-d…
> the former is a fake metric. I am using M2 money supply. Basically trying to proxy how much money more we printed this past few years. Source: https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-money-supply-vs-inflation/
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> the former is a fake metric. I am using M2 money supply. Basically trying to proxy how much money more we printed this past few years. Source: https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-money-supply-vs-inflation/
That could be skewed because they changed how M2 was calculated during the pandemic.
/s
This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is the broadest view of the economy growing. So there may be some business leaders who work in still growing industries who are trying to "wish the recession into existence" as you say.. But on the flipside you have things like housing taking a downturn (not just home prices, but actual housing construction) which negatively impacts all of their suppliers (HVAC equipment, lumber, contracting companies, etc etc).…
Be real fun when the strategic oil reserve runs out / stop draining it after November Election. Nothing was done to increase domestic supply. And OPEC has decided to tighten the screws on us.
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Yes, but not directly. If you listen to the last FOMC meeting, Powell mentions there will likely be significant weakening of the labor market and a rise of unemployment. As well as his famous "there will be pain" remarks. I don't think he directly said "he won't stop until" though.
Yeah, I mean maintaining full employment is one of the fed's mandates. It would be an insane thing for a fed chair to just come out and say. I assume he want's to keep his job, and pissing off the Senate isn't the way to go about that.
This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…
It is weird, they say history does not repeat but it rhymes. What is troubling about this good news about GDP growth is the fed's course of raising interest rates will continue on and interest rates will keep getting higher and higher. This will lead to a housing market that will grind to a halt and expect that whole sector will hemorrhage jobs. In addition growth companies will be hit hard by rates being high as we…
Yea and outside of just absolutely ultraviolet kind of hot markets this will mitigate downward pressure on prices now and in the future because home builders (though that's another problem) won't be building homes. Coupled with people who have locked in interest rates, the market seems to me to be poised to grind to a halt and prices to remain quite high.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-q...
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This seems overly pessimistic. I'm sure a high rate environment isn't ideal for a lot of businesses, but we've had much higher rates in the past and most businesses survived it just fine.
Those businesses were the ones that were either created in that environment, or who survived it long enough. The last time rates were this high, they were this high for decades . I fear the cliff scenario because a lot of business models now were built on a foundation of crazy-cheap debt. The tide is about to go out. Eventually the business environment will re-adjust to the new cost of money, but the transition will…
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds
Last time fed funds rates were as high as they are now was Jun 2019. And then a few more times before that.
This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…